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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=present&height=600&width=600
Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!
Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
二月 22, 2008 - 06:18 下午My Favorites Right NowWelcome to the first public sneak peek of the Slope of Hope on its new platform. Although there are bound to be plenty of rough edges, I look forward to your feedback.
Besides the goodies located on the right column, one of the nice features about this new blog system is the ability to see 'before' and 'after' charts. That way, when you look at older blog entries, you can see how charts have done since the original posting.
For instance, let's say I was writing positively about Mosaic (MOS). The chart would look like it does below as of the writing. But if, much later, you were looking at it, you could click on Present to see how it looks with all the up-to-date prices, and since this was a bullish idea, the area shaded in green would indicate what the chart looked like when I first wrote about it. Try it!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=196&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=196&state=present&height=600&width=600
By the same token, a bearish suggestion (such as NutriSystem, symbol NTRI) made last year would look like the chart below, but now that several months have gone by, clicking the Present tab would update that chart and show the original area in pink.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=195&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=195&state=present&height=600&width=600
The remainder of the charts are some of my current favorite shorts. Clicking the Present button won't really make any difference (unless you are reading this well past February 2008!) since these are new or at least very recent ideas. So here we go.......
Akamai (AKAM) did a nice break and retracement already, and there are actually two horizontal lines at play here. I've got a nice tight stop on this one, and a break beneath that lower horizontal line would be sensational.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=184&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=184&state=present&height=600&width=600
Readers already know of my love for ATI. This has pushed up against its former support (now resistance) level, represented by the horizontal line. This is probably one of my favorite patterns right now.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=185&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=185&state=present&height=600&width=600
Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.
Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=186&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=186&state=present&height=600&width=600
Genco (GNK) is, like DRYS, also somewhat speculative, but there's a lot of potential "juice" in these puts, because intrinsic value gains or 10, 20, or 30 points are possible.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=187&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=187&state=present&height=600&width=600
A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.
A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=188&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=188&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been very bearish on the Dow Transports, but I haven't found a good way to short the index itself. Ryder Systems is a play based on my bearishness there.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=189&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=189&state=present&height=600&width=600
Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.
Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=190&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=190&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a lot of energy puts. Apache (APA) is one of my favorites based on its high price and clean stop.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=192&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=192&state=present&height=600&width=600
Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.
Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=193&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=193&state=present&height=600&width=600
Lastly, Canadian Natural (CFQ) has broken a major trendline and may be finishing up a complex head and shoulders pattern.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=194&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=194&state=present&height=600&width=600
My main purpose in this entry is for you to get a sneak peek of the new blog. Please add something to the Comments section with any feedback, and if you feel particularly strongly about something, drop me an email. Thanks for taking the time to stop by!
Posted: 06:18 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ACI (6)
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
Original [*]Present
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=415
The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=416
The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.