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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ADBE (4)
18 五月 '09 - 24 五月 '09 (43)
Weekly Archive for 18 May 2009 - 24 May 2009
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五月 24, 2009 - 07:23 上午Here in my CARHappy Memorial Day weekend, everyone. I've got a house to clean up after a big get-together we had on Saturday, so I'll make this brief. Look at this chart of CAR, which is Avis, the big auto rental firm:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4433&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4433&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now, I did all right with my "lottery picks" from mid-March until now. I made 100% in some cases, and nearly 200% here and there. I certainly didn't capture all - or even most - of the rise, but in the account where I allowed myself these battered picks, I did pretty well.
I pick CAR as an example of why I think the easy money has been made in lottery-land. This stock had gone from about thirty dollars to thirty cents in the course of eighteen months, but from March 3rd to May 20, it went up well over 1,000%. I did not participate in this move, but it stands out as one of the more extraordinary lottery stocks I pick.
Over the course of the bear market, we've seen a number of these sweeps upward on battered issues, although this one is by far the most dramatic. But the cold fact of the matter is that (a) there was a reason the stock lost 99% in the first place; (b) 1000%+ moves are not sustainable; (c) the amount of overhead supply at these levels is staggering.
But here's the more important point of all - - -the nature of percentages can wreak havoc on a portfolio at levels like this. If you bought in at 40 cents, you're sitting pretty, and you could be greedy and see if this thing manages to get to five, six, or seven bucks. But a person who bought on, say, Wednesday, is already looking at a 20% loss, because there is hardly anything holding prices up after such a swift mood.
Bottom line for me is that I'm less and less inclined to add lottery picks, and I'll be making my stops on the ones I do have increasing unforgiving.
Posted: 07:23 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 23, 2009 - 07:18 上午Saturday SermonAs a full-time fashion model, homemaker, and blogger, I sometimes also feel a bit like a preacher (most likely a Methodist one) who has to struggle for a new topic each Sunday. Although my Sunday happens several times a day, since I blog pretty frequently.
Fortunately the markets usually give me something to talk about, but I pondered a bit this morning what thought I could share. I was going to use my toe as a launching-off point for a discussion about being careful in life, but I think if I talk about my little injury any more, someone is going to show up at my office and give me a more serious injury.
So instead I'd like to direct your attention to this cute little chart I just put together. I like it a lot:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4432
Here are the four elements:
[*]The tinted blue area is the S&P 500 from October through early January; as you can see, it was bouncing around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher[*]The tinted green area is also the S&P 500, but from early January through the present; it bounced around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher (hmmmm!)[*]The red rounded rectangles both represent points where the index seems like it should have launched off the basing action and moved much higher; in each case, it didn't[*]The blue rounded rectangles represent the areas where the basing pattern initially but, having failed it later, marked the starting point of a serious decline (I can only say that of the left blue rectangle, as the right one hasn't been violated to the downside yet).You probably see what I'm driving at here: if we can snap below 878, we could be in for some serious downside. And that would do wonders to brighten my disposition. Let us pray.
Posted: 07:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 01:26 下午Top TenOK, forget all the opinions, speculations, and prognostications. It all comes down to what's making money. Here are the top ten most profitable positions for me right now in absolute dollar terms (from 1st place to 10th). Sorry for so many charts, but it's been a long week, and I'm going to skip any creative writing today. I hope it is self-evident which positions I am long and which I am short (just in case it's not, I am, in order: Long, Short, Long, Short, Short, Long, Short, Long, Long, and Long!)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4421&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4423&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4424&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4425&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4426&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4427&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4427&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4428&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4429&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4430&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4430&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 01:26 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 11:35 上午A Trio of BuysMy favorite long positions right now are SRS, TBT, and SLV, but here are some "normal" equities that look good to buy:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4417&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4418&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4418&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4419&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4419&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:35 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 10:11 上午One That Got AwayOh, I hate when this happens (and it's the first time). I've tried to short ATAC just about every day for the past week, but there's never any available. It's down over 20% this morning.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4416&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4416&state=present&height=600&width=600
Overall today is booooooooooooooring. Maybe the market has started its three-day weekend early.
Posted: 10:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 09:25 上午DBA Looks PrimedI like the look of this chart; I confess I'm going a bit commodity-happy these days, but it seems to be one of the few areas that is really shaping up to move up if it can push just a little higher from here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4415&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4415&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 06:45 上午The Tumbling DollarI mentionedthat the EUR/USD was poised for a breakout, and break out it did. The tumbling dollar has given precious metals a hearty boost as well as the Treasury Ultrashort TBT:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4414&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4414&state=present&height=600&width=600
I used to think this would also be a big positive for energies (like OIH), but it doesn't seem to be working out that way. I'd love to hear your insights on what you think the effects of continuing weakness in the US dollar would be.
Posted: 06:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 09:17 下午Ags Seem VulnerableTurns out we didn't go to Star Trek after all. Oh, well. Some other night! In the meantime, here are a few quick futures charts suggesting some potential weakness ahead for these (and, likewise, MOO)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4410&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4410&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4411&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4411&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4412&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4412&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 12:46 下午Was That It?So are we just continuing this absurd game of jumping up and down this range? Could be. Pretty tiresome, isn't it?
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4408
Posted: 12:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 11:51 上午TBT - Wow!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4407&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4407&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink