18 五月 '09 - 24 五月 '09 (43)
Weekly Archive for 18 May 2009 - 24 May 2009
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五月 24, 2009 - 07:23 上午Here in my CARHappy Memorial Day weekend, everyone. I've got a house to clean up after a big get-together we had on Saturday, so I'll make this brief. Look at this chart of CAR, which is Avis, the big auto rental firm:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4433&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4433&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now, I did all right with my "lottery picks" from mid-March until now. I made 100% in some cases, and nearly 200% here and there. I certainly didn't capture all - or even most - of the rise, but in the account where I allowed myself these battered picks, I did pretty well.
I pick CAR as an example of why I think the easy money has been made in lottery-land. This stock had gone from about thirty dollars to thirty cents in the course of eighteen months, but from March 3rd to May 20, it went up well over 1,000%. I did not participate in this move, but it stands out as one of the more extraordinary lottery stocks I pick.
Over the course of the bear market, we've seen a number of these sweeps upward on battered issues, although this one is by far the most dramatic. But the cold fact of the matter is that (a) there was a reason the stock lost 99% in the first place; (b) 1000%+ moves are not sustainable; (c) the amount of overhead supply at these levels is staggering.
But here's the more important point of all - - -the nature of percentages can wreak havoc on a portfolio at levels like this. If you bought in at 40 cents, you're sitting pretty, and you could be greedy and see if this thing manages to get to five, six, or seven bucks. But a person who bought on, say, Wednesday, is already looking at a 20% loss, because there is hardly anything holding prices up after such a swift mood.
Bottom line for me is that I'm less and less inclined to add lottery picks, and I'll be making my stops on the ones I do have increasing unforgiving.
Posted: 07:23 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 23, 2009 - 07:18 上午Saturday SermonAs a full-time fashion model, homemaker, and blogger, I sometimes also feel a bit like a preacher (most likely a Methodist one) who has to struggle for a new topic each Sunday. Although my Sunday happens several times a day, since I blog pretty frequently.
Fortunately the markets usually give me something to talk about, but I pondered a bit this morning what thought I could share. I was going to use my toe as a launching-off point for a discussion about being careful in life, but I think if I talk about my little injury any more, someone is going to show up at my office and give me a more serious injury.
So instead I'd like to direct your attention to this cute little chart I just put together. I like it a lot:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4432
Here are the four elements:
[*]The tinted blue area is the S&P 500 from October through early January; as you can see, it was bouncing around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher[*]The tinted green area is also the S&P 500, but from early January through the present; it bounced around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher (hmmmm!)[*]The red rounded rectangles both represent points where the index seems like it should have launched off the basing action and moved much higher; in each case, it didn't[*]The blue rounded rectangles represent the areas where the basing pattern initially but, having failed it later, marked the starting point of a serious decline (I can only say that of the left blue rectangle, as the right one hasn't been violated to the downside yet).You probably see what I'm driving at here: if we can snap below 878, we could be in for some serious downside. And that would do wonders to brighten my disposition. Let us pray.
Posted: 07:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 01:26 下午Top TenOK, forget all the opinions, speculations, and prognostications. It all comes down to what's making money. Here are the top ten most profitable positions for me right now in absolute dollar terms (from 1st place to 10th). Sorry for so many charts, but it's been a long week, and I'm going to skip any creative writing today. I hope it is self-evident which positions I am long and which I am short (just in case it's not, I am, in order: Long, Short, Long, Short, Short, Long, Short, Long, Long, and Long!)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4421&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4421&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4422&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4423&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4423&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4424&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4424&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4425&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4425&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4426&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4426&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4427&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4427&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4428&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4428&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4429&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4429&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4430&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4430&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 01:26 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 11:35 上午A Trio of BuysMy favorite long positions right now are SRS, TBT, and SLV, but here are some "normal" equities that look good to buy:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4417&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4417&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4418&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4418&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4419&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4419&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:35 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 10:11 上午One That Got AwayOh, I hate when this happens (and it's the first time). I've tried to short ATAC just about every day for the past week, but there's never any available. It's down over 20% this morning.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4416&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4416&state=present&height=600&width=600
Overall today is booooooooooooooring. Maybe the market has started its three-day weekend early.
Posted: 10:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 09:25 上午DBA Looks PrimedI like the look of this chart; I confess I'm going a bit commodity-happy these days, but it seems to be one of the few areas that is really shaping up to move up if it can push just a little higher from here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4415&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4415&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 22, 2009 - 06:45 上午The Tumbling DollarI mentionedthat the EUR/USD was poised for a breakout, and break out it did. The tumbling dollar has given precious metals a hearty boost as well as the Treasury Ultrashort TBT:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4414&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4414&state=present&height=600&width=600
I used to think this would also be a big positive for energies (like OIH), but it doesn't seem to be working out that way. I'd love to hear your insights on what you think the effects of continuing weakness in the US dollar would be.
Posted: 06:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 09:17 下午Ags Seem VulnerableTurns out we didn't go to Star Trek after all. Oh, well. Some other night! In the meantime, here are a few quick futures charts suggesting some potential weakness ahead for these (and, likewise, MOO)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4410&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4410&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4411&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4411&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4412&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4412&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 12:46 下午Was That It?So are we just continuing this absurd game of jumping up and down this range? Could be. Pretty tiresome, isn't it?
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4408
Posted: 12:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 11:51 上午TBT - Wow!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4407&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4407&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 10:00 上午Are Gold's Best Days Ahead?http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4406
Posted: 10:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 09:29 上午Ultrashort Real EstateSorry to keep pounding the SRS drum, but this is a really fine looking chart to me.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4405&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4405&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 08:09 上午In Order for the Fall to PERSIST..........http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4404
Posted: 08:09 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 21, 2009 - 06:19 上午The Graph of FrustrationI think the market has decided to simply drive everyone, bulls and bears alike, completely out of their minds.
This chart of the /ES, not even the length of a day, captures it nicely. The bulls have a nice run-up, break out of the yellow consolidation pattern, and look ready to kick butt. The bears (including me) freak out and figure it's time to start getting on board. Then everything falls to pieces.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4403
Added to which, the bears might say, "Phew! This countertrend rally is over! Time to rock 'n' roll!" But this is, by my measure, the three thousand five hundred and sixty-first time this "turnaround" could be declared in the past eleven weeks.
The bottom line is that it's getting very difficult to commit to either direction since both sides are getting faked out on virtually a daily basis.
Posted: 06:19 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 07:56 下午Hmmmm......Having bought a goodly amount of USO early on Wednesday, this glance at the updated crude oil chart makes me a skosh nervous. USO looks great, but the run-up to that Fibonacci gives me the heeby-jeebies, technically speaking.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4401&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4401&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:56 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 03:30 下午Fan MailMy portfolio across four accounts has, overall, been "running in place" for more weeks than I care to count. It's really boring, and really monotonous. Plus it's a lot of work just to hold my ground! That's why I've been moaning for a sustained trend. I'm glad to have prevented overall losses through all this insanity, but I want growth across all my portfolios. Grrr!
One interesting thing going on now - - and today is a fine example - - is how the /ES, in spite of punching into unsettling new highs, has seem to have lost its way. It's not really moving higher anymore in any sustained fashion.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4400&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4400&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am hearing from many people whom I respect deeply - - some of them well-know bloggers - - that this market is driving them nuts and they are tempted to just walk away for the summer. I can understand the sentiment.
If you're frustrated............if you're being driven crazy by this market............at least rest assured you are not alone.
Posted: 03:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 01:00 下午Worth the Wait, 3 of 3
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4398&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4399&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4389&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4389&state=present&height=600&width=600
God willing, I am out of surgery now and will do a post-market post once the sedatives have worn off.
Posted: 01:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 12:00 下午Worth the Wait, 2 of 3
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4396&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4386&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4397&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4397&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 12:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 11:00 上午Worth the Wait, 1 of 3If all goes well, this post (and the two to follow) will magically appear while I am under the knife, undergoing the world's first brain transplant. Here are some stocks I think will be superb shorts once they get up a bit higher. They are worth watching.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4393&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4393&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4394&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4394&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4395&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4395&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
月 20, 2009 - 08:48 上午The Plunging VIXThe shrinking VIX is heading for the low 20s. Current VIX values represent typical levels seen before any of the financial crisis even started happening.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4390&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4390&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 08:48 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 20, 2009 - 07:00 上午EUR/USD Headed for Upward BreakoutIf the horizontal line at 1.3739 gets broken to the upside (top of the tinted green area), I think we're headed to about where that horizontal blue line is drawn. This would probably be a big plus for precious metals and commodities.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4382&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4382&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 19, 2009 - 12:00 下午Slick SLXI have repurposed this post - - originally it was a "throw the hands in the air and buy UWM" topic, but I've decided otherwise. I am no longer in TWM, but I'm not in UWM either. This market is making me uncharacteristically capricious.
Let me show one chart that has acted nicely and behaved to technical normalcy - - SLX.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4377&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4377&state=present&height=600&width=600
Well-behaved charts like this are getting to be few and far between, unfortunately. But you take what you can get.
Posted: 12:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 19, 2009 - 10:00 上午SRS AgainI saw someone made a cutesy comment about "get out the dartboard again" with respect to SRS. I'm not sure what all the fuss is about. Did people think it was just going to explode higher? I pointed out a trend change (see green circle) which is still very much intact. If we break to new lows, sure, SRS gets thrown into the toilet again, but for now, I see a security which is trying to form a base.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4374
Posted: 10:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 18, 2009 - 12:51 下午Some Favorite New Lottery Longs (2 of 2)
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4366&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4367&state=original&height=600&width=600
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