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Posted: 12:42 下午 | 162 insightful comments | Permalink
二月 19, 2009 - 07:36 上午Affiliated ComputerI haven't been able to score any of this to short, but it's an interesting short play if you can find it.
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Posted: 07:36 上午 | 68 insightful comments | Permalink
一月 06, 2009 - 06:57 上午A Few Morning ChartsJust a quickie post this morning of a few interesting charts I saw this morning. First is DBA, which agrees with my view that commodities are approaching a rollover point.
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A look at major individual commodities also shows them at meaningful resistance levels.
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Here are a couple of new tickers I hadn't seen before that I think are prospective shorts.
Here are a couple of new tickers I hadn't seen before that I think are prospective shorts.
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Good luck today; looks like the bulls are off to a firm start.
Posted: 06:57 上午 | 145 insightful comments | Permalink
ACS (3)
四月 13, 2009 - 07:49 下午Be a Fool or Fight It?As the countertrend market defrauds its way higher, there are a number of camps of thinking developing among people involved in the stock market: (note: I have provided new labels to a couple of these since apparently some folks just can't deal with things that aren't completely vanilla.)
[*]The Permabears: these are the folks that were spoiled rotten by the fantastic plunge from September 20th 2008 to March 9 2009 and have been fighting the uptrend ever since. The quick profits from bear market action are seductive, and it's understandable that folks would want to return to the Good Old Days (that is, a few months ago), but they're going to see (or already have seen) their profits disappear.[*]The New Permabulls: this represents the vast majority of the normal investing public. Simply stated, they have no idea what they are doing, and they have benefited mightily from the past five weeks. This is the group that is going to be the most helpful setting up the new leg - - the big one - - of the bear market later this year. The market is seducing and tantalizing them right now. And, boy, does it feel good! All those nasty losses they suffered in 2008 are being chiseled away, day by day. Heck, maybe they've even bought some banking stocks that have gone up triple digits! And of course, with Obama on their side, they know they can sit back, relax, and enjoy the Recovery. I cannot wait to devour these people.[*]Those Waiting for Godot: these are the folks that would otherwise have been Bear-Hards but have had the good sense to get out of the way. They know the market's rise is B.S., and they know the bear market will return at some point. But they are patiently waiting for the right time.[*]The Premature Anticipations: here we have the group that keeps assuming The Top Is In, and they keep shorting the market (I have occasionally been a member of this group). The market has seduced them into what seem like good short positions, and then blammo, their wallet is emptied, and the cash has been magically transferred into the hip pocket of a wily bull.[*]The Pushmi-Pullyus: This is the camp in which I consider myself - - I recognize the rally is B.S., but I want to profit from it. At the same time, I want to be positioned for the bear market, and as we push higher, I am seeing more and more bearish opportunities. However, the bullish push has, to date, been stronger than the bearish mini-drops, so over the past five weeks, this positioning is a very distant second from that of the New Permabulls, who have been raking it in.There are some Slopers who seem to have been doing a fantastic job profiting from the push upward. I know moo is quite deft, and I see TraderTamas doing quite well too. I will make this as plain as I can: I have, over the past month, been far, far too bearish. I've had a lot of the "Premature Anticipation" problem, and between bad /ES trades and my FAZ debacle, I've - - umm - - "balanced" the very nice gains I've enjoyed in my long positions.
Funny enough, the portfolios I manage each fall into a different camp. My personal portfolio has been in the permabear camp, and it hasn't budged this year. Whatever gains I enjoyed during the January and February tumble had been given back. My "big account" has been quite consistently Pushmi-Pullyu, and it is growing, but at a snail's pace. My IRA has been completed bullish, and it seems to reach a new high pretty much every day. I'm up a solid 33% so far this year in that account, and that's after having a lousy beginning of the year too!
So it all really boils down to - - - if you see the fools winning, do you want to join them or fight them? It's clear that recently being with the fools is the smart place to be. I read on Evil today mole say something like "I'd rather be rich than right." Me too.
Patience is not one of my strong suits, and I'm fighting myself every day to tell myself that the top of the countertrend is probably several months away. I practically have to slap my hand away from the keyboard. Funny enough, the fact that Principal Brokerage is (still!) down helped me today, since I kept my grubby paws off of all the stupid little positions in that account, and it reached a new high. At the same time, there are still charts appearing which seem to be setting up as juicy shorts (with relatively close stops, just in case they want to become even juicier from higher levels).
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I'll probably have time for no more than one or two posts tomorrow. I will be in the air virtually the entire day. So prepare yourselves for a very long comment thread!
Posted: 07:49 下午 | 191 insightful comments | Permalink
五月 06, 2008 - 09:17 上午A Few Current Favoriteshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=723
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Posted: 09:17 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
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I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ADBE (4)