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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1811&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1816&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 01:59 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 29, 2008 - 09:25 上午Rude CrudeOn the whole, my puts and equity shorts are doing pretty well in the face of a softening crude oil market, but my index puts are doing definitely not-so-hot. I've still got puts on the $RUT and $NDX, but I get could stopped out of those in a day or two if things remain strong. So far this morning I've been stopped out of ABT, ALB, BLK, MON, RJF, and ACL.
Here are a few of my holdings that I'm feeling pretty confident about:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=907&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=908&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=909&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=910&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=911&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=911&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=913&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=913&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:25 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AEM (12)
十二月 01, 2008 - 04:02 下午Top Ten ListSomething a little different this afternoon - - I've gone through my charts and have picked out my ten favorites (which is no mean feat...........). I figured it was time to stop navel-gazing about comments and just throw some charts out there. As for market direction, I think Evil Speculator did a bang-up job with charting out the next few months, so I'll be a bum and just
With the exception of this first chart (UNG), these are all short positions; I hope you find some of them to be of interest.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2910&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2912&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2914&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2915&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2916&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2917&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2918&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2919&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2920&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2920&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2921&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2921&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2922&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2922&state=present&height=600&width=600
Errr, that's eleven. And I could have easily done a top thirty. Oh, well. See you in the morning.
Posted: 04:02 下午 | 144 insightful comments | Permalink
AEP (1)
十一月 22, 2008 - 03:40 下午ConflictedI determine my belief about the stock market's direction mainly from three sources:
[*]My analysis of major index charts;[*]My analysis of individual stock charts which I consider good opportunities in either direction;[*]The opinions of a handful of site which I respect (already listed)The trouble is, all of these sources are conflicted. Index charts show virtually no support beneath, yet they are astonishingly oversold; I have a mountain of individual stock charts whose own "bear market" has only just begun, and an equal mountain of charts which - - although not classically bullish - - certainly suggest a very strong bounce ahead; and the sites I follow have all manner of opinion, ranging from multiple sequential days of 500 point gains on the Dow to an imminent crash.
So, for the moment, all the easy money seems gone. It's no longer feasible for me to sashay over to a computer and pull a few tens of thousands of bucks out of the market. It's very, very hard to trade right now.
Looking at the SPY over the past few (astonishing) months, it would seem conceivable that there might be a tiny bit more upside Monday morning, but the overhead resistance is very substantial. To put it another way, if any kind of meaningful (that is, greater than 1-day) bounce is going to happen, the SPY must make a decisive and unapologetic push past $83. The action on the SPY from $83 to $100 represents a formidable barrier to upward movement (setting aside the fact that there seems to be no rational reason to buy stock in this market).
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It's the same story with OIH. If we zoom past the $80s, maybe we're finally entering the elusive wave 4; but all recent activity suggests a rise to no higher than $77 or so and then the resumption of the plunge.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2827&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2821&state=original&height=600&width=600
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My dread fear is really simple; there's nothing conflicted about it: the market rockets higher for a few days, effectively (a) blasting me out of my shorts and puts, their profits having turned into losses and, simultaneously (b) being completely empty-handed of any long positions. My nightmare would be for any meaningful portion of my substantial (but hard-won) gains of 2008 to get nuked. I just won't stand for it. I have thus (yet again) hedged my bearish portfolio with a few large ultra ETFs and some stocks which, in the context of a strong push higher, would zoom up in value. Some of these are items like ANF and AA, which have simply gotten creamed over the past couple of months:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2824&state=original&height=600&width=600
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And others, like BAC, are at "interesting" technical levels of support:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2826&state=present&height=600&width=600
Most stocks - - indeed, a very large percentage of those that I follow - look like AES. That is, (a) long-term bearish pattern; (b) short term "churning", suggesting an attempt to base; (c) the potential for a set-up of an incredible short opportunity, if equities in general do push higher.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2823&state=original&height=600&width=600
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I'm not usually a person who pays a lot of attention to sentiment indicators, but those I have seen recently make a strong case for the bullish argument. Just about everyone has assumed the world is about to end. With that kind of mentality, it's easy to understand how the simplest (and, frankly, irrelevant) smidgen of news, such as the candidate of Treasury Secretary, can suddenly make the market blast 500 points higher in the span of an hour. That's not the kind of windstorm I want to be caught in with a 100% bearish portfolio.
Anyway, I can't say to you if I'm feeling really bearish or really bullish. If pressed, I guess I'd say my feeling is we'll get a final plunge in the early part of this week and, at long last, can start to push higher in a big wave 4. I hope it works out that way, because this market is absolutely dying for some kind of consistency, since it has been chewing virtually all traders to pieces lately.
Posted: 03:40 下午 | 212 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 17, 2008 - 04:36 下午Chart TaxonomyHere I am at the end of a hard week, having just opened up a marvelous 30 year old Glenfiddich that a reader gave to me (thanks, Michael T.!). I hope a few of you were able to join in on the "Spotlight" Tom Sosnoff and I just gave. Those are always fun.
If you did listen in, you heard my point of view on the market - - - the next few months seem so clear to me. I hope my clairvoyance is on the money, so to speak, because it's terribly exciting to me to be able to (presumably) have an understanding of what is going to take place.
For the moment, I am buying stocks. There are some who say the market is going to crash this week. It could. But even those who believe it might crash acknowledge that would be the "nail in the coffin" for this leg of the bear market, and we would then commence to push higher over a period of months. So, crash or not, I'm buying stocks. A lot of them. I just got started today.
There are three interesting flavors of charts I've categorized for the months ahead. Allow me to share these with you.
Caput Scapulique
This is my favorite. It may or may not be an actual head and shoulders pattern, but it is a chart which fell away from a major horizontal support line. I'm tracking about one hundred of these, and by God, they are luscious.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2370&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2370&state=present&height=600&width=600
Infractus Versus
I've tracking seventy of these critters - - the breakers of major trendlines. The target price is tougher on these, but I expect a hearty bounce, and I own a lot of these for the time being. I will naturally reverse the position at (hopefully) the right time.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2371&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Ceterum
I've also got a grab bag of about fifty stocks which, although not cleanly defined, will still make fantastic shorts once the countertrend rally is over.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2372&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2372&state=present&height=600&width=600
Just to be clear, what I'm looking for is a steady, hearty, sustainable rally that lasts more than one freakin' trading session. I intend to take advantage of both sides - - up and then down. If we do this right together, we're all going to make fortunes.
By the way, I've slightly updated mypage, so please check it out. Have a good weekend. I'll see you on Monday.
Posted: 04:36 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AES (2)
五月 22, 2009 - 01:26 下午Top TenOK, forget all the opinions, speculations, and prognostications. It all comes down to what's making money. Here are the top ten most profitable positions for me right now in absolute dollar terms (from 1st place to 10th). Sorry for so many charts, but it's been a long week, and I'm going to skip any creative writing today. I hope it is self-evident which positions I am long and which I am short (just in case it's not, I am, in order: Long, Short, Long, Short, Short, Long, Short, Long, Long, and Long!)
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