On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=present&height=600&width=600
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=present&height=600&width=600
One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=present&height=600&width=600
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=present&height=600&width=600
I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!
Posted: 05:08 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=317&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=317&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=318&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=318&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=320&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=320&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=321&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=321&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=322&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=322&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=323&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=323&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=324&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=324&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=325&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=325&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=326&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=326&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=327&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=327&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=328&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=329&state=present&height=600&width=600
Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!
Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
二月 22, 2008 - 06:18 下午My Favorites Right NowWelcome to the first public sneak peek of the Slope of Hope on its new platform. Although there are bound to be plenty of rough edges, I look forward to your feedback.
Besides the goodies located on the right column, one of the nice features about this new blog system is the ability to see 'before' and 'after' charts. That way, when you look at older blog entries, you can see how charts have done since the original posting.
For instance, let's say I was writing positively about Mosaic (MOS). The chart would look like it does below as of the writing. But if, much later, you were looking at it, you could click on Present to see how it looks with all the up-to-date prices, and since this was a bullish idea, the area shaded in green would indicate what the chart looked like when I first wrote about it. Try it!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=196&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=196&state=present&height=600&width=600
By the same token, a bearish suggestion (such as NutriSystem, symbol NTRI) made last year would look like the chart below, but now that several months have gone by, clicking the Present tab would update that chart and show the original area in pink.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=195&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=195&state=present&height=600&width=600
The remainder of the charts are some of my current favorite shorts. Clicking the Present button won't really make any difference (unless you are reading this well past February 2008!) since these are new or at least very recent ideas. So here we go.......
Akamai (AKAM) did a nice break and retracement already, and there are actually two horizontal lines at play here. I've got a nice tight stop on this one, and a break beneath that lower horizontal line would be sensational.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=184&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=184&state=present&height=600&width=600
Readers already know of my love for ATI. This has pushed up against its former support (now resistance) level, represented by the horizontal line. This is probably one of my favorite patterns right now.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=185&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=185&state=present&height=600&width=600
Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.
Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=186&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=186&state=present&height=600&width=600
Genco (GNK) is, like DRYS, also somewhat speculative, but there's a lot of potential "juice" in these puts, because intrinsic value gains or 10, 20, or 30 points are possible.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=187&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=187&state=present&height=600&width=600
A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.
A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=188&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=188&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been very bearish on the Dow Transports, but I haven't found a good way to short the index itself. Ryder Systems is a play based on my bearishness there.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=189&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=189&state=present&height=600&width=600
Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.
Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=190&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=190&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a lot of energy puts. Apache (APA) is one of my favorites based on its high price and clean stop.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=192&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=192&state=present&height=600&width=600
Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.
Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=193&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=193&state=present&height=600&width=600
Lastly, Canadian Natural (CFQ) has broken a major trendline and may be finishing up a complex head and shoulders pattern.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=194&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=194&state=present&height=600&width=600
My main purpose in this entry is for you to get a sneak peek of the new blog. Please add something to the Comments section with any feedback, and if you feel particularly strongly about something, drop me an email. Thanks for taking the time to stop by!
Posted: 06:18 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ACI (6)
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
Original [*]Present