The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=present&height=600&width=600
The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.
And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a different view of the same index with similar conclusions.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.
The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=present&height=600&width=600
I still have plenty of puts, but they are almost all in the energy or agriculture sector. Here are a few favorites........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been pretty repetitive about ICE, but I'm just crazy about this one.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1308&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1308&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am counting on a drop in gold, and my short in ABX is my favorite one there.
I am counting on a drop in gold, and my short in ABX is my favorite one there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1309&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1309&state=present&height=600&width=600
EOG pierced its necklined beautfully on Thursday.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1310&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1310&state=present&height=600&width=600
Honeywell's breakdown under its consolidation range makes for another nice short.
Honeywell's breakdown under its consolidation range makes for another nice short.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1311&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1311&state=present&height=600&width=600
And another one of my "dainty little H&S" patterns is NIHD.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1312&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1312&state=present&height=600&width=600
After such a dynamite time lately, I am putting on my Cautious & Humble hat, because after a load of profits, it's easy to screw up. I have no intention of repeating the mid-March through mid-May fiasco. I have reduced my risk substantially, and I intend to play what I see as a firm likelihood of a bounce conservatively.
Once again, I probably won't be able to do a new post until late night Monday, although I'll probably pop into the comments section now and then. Thanks for coming by, as always!
Posted: 04:01 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=562&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=563&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=564&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=565&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=567&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=572&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=573&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=574&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=575&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=576&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=577&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=415
The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=416
The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.