I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=561&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=568&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=569&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=570&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=571&state=present&height=600&width=600
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That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!
Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=415
The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=416
The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.
The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=417
One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=418
Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.
Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=419
ACL is enticing. It's got a clean stop at around $155, and a break below that horizontal line at $128 would be sensational.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=420
CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.
CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=421
I got back into ICE today, too (puts, naturally). The $155 stop price is a few bucks off, but I'm willing to be a little early.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=422
As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.
As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=423
Good night, everyone. I'm exhausted......time for some rest!
Posted: 03:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 26, 2008 - 08:53 上午What about Gold and Oil?Well, it's hardly a rout, but 100+ points off the Dow as of this writing is a nice change. My index puts (SPX, NDX, RUT, DIA) are all doing dandy.
I had a field day over the past few weeks with oil and gold shorts, and I got out last week. I've been getting back in - - in some cases, too early - - although my interest in oil shorts is much stronger than gold shorts. I think gold as as commodity could shock everyone, heading to $2,000/ounce, so I'm not getting too freaky with the shiny stuff. I do find ABX an interesting "kiss the trendline" opportunity, so I've got a small position on those puts.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=353
The slippery stuff, on the other hand, is getting possibly enticing again.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=354
The IWM is pretty key at this point as for the indexes. The next Fib level to break is 69.05, and that's a ways away at this point (IWM is 69.67 as of this writing). IWM is in between Fibs at this point, so we'll just have to bide our time.
Posted: 08:53 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 04, 2008 - 07:03 上午My Favorite Gold ShortI know gold is going up and up and up. $1,000/ounce gold is virtually a foregone conclusion.
In spite of this, there are some gold and mining stocks that I really like as bearish plays. One of my favorites is ABX (Barrick). It has huge volume, and its bid/ask spread is quite reasonable (particularly when compared to $XAU options, which are freakishly thinly traded).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=242&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=242&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:03 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ABX (11)
十一月 03, 2008 - 11:31 上午CornucopiaMore short ideas..............
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Posted: 11:31 上午 | 101 insightful comments | Permalink
八月 04, 2008 - 06:36 下午EnergizedI liked today a lot. One, my portfolio went up substantially - - over 15%. Not bad for one day. And two (and this is the part I really like), it didn't take some nutty market collapse to make it happen. The Dow fell 0.37%. Nothing!
The reason for my positions surging was that my hypothesis, which I've been pretty vocal about, is panning out. That is - - energy: down; equities: down. Not inversely related. Again - - - energy (and commodities in general, while we're on the subject): down; equities: down.
Now, just like no "up" is straight up, no "down" is straight down. Looking at the continuous crude contract (how's that for alliteration?), I'd say we're probably in for a breather when oil gets to $112 a barrel or so. People were ga-ga bullish when oil was $140 a barrel. I can only imagine some futures n00bs got their scalps handed to them already.
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The OIH has cut through its fan line, and - just eyeballing it - I'd say $170 or so is a good target. Not to say that oil and the OIH have much, much farther to fall. I'm just talking about the coming week or two.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1607&state=original&height=600&width=600
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I sure wish $XAU options were more liquid. I'd really enjoy that market if they were. But they're not, and I avoid it..........which is unfortunate, since it's a really dynamic, technically-interesting market. The $XAU has plummeted an incredible 25% in just a few days. Here again, commodities n00bs (on the long side, at least) surely were surprised. But fortunes were made on the short side.
I sure wish $XAU options were more liquid. I'd really enjoy that market if they were. But they're not, and I avoid it..........which is unfortunate, since it's a really dynamic, technically-interesting market. The $XAU has plummeted an incredible 25% in just a few days. Here again, commodities n00bs (on the long side, at least) surely were surprised. But fortunes were made on the short side.
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I have a quantity of positions that ticks a lot of Garys off (80), and yes, it's cumbersome. I took a little money off the table today, but mostly I tightened my stops. Looking at the $CRX, it seems sensible to have a bit of a bounce here, but for goodness sake, I've seen so many graphs like this lately, and sometimes they don't wait for a bounce; they simply cut through the trendline and take no prisoners.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1605&state=original&height=600&width=600
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And, oh, yes, my good friend $UTIL. I walked into the palatial office of my network guys today, and I wrote "SDP" in huge letters on their whiteboard. There is no more "jumping the gun" here. This is a head and shoulders. It's complete. The neckline is cut. And this thing is ready to rock.
And, oh, yes, my good friend $UTIL. I walked into the palatial office of my network guys today, and I wrote "SDP" in huge letters on their whiteboard. There is no more "jumping the gun" here. This is a head and shoulders. It's complete. The neckline is cut. And this thing is ready to rock.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1604&state=original&height=600&width=600
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The Beijing Olympics (which had the inexplicable magical power to lift the Chinese stock market - - I still don't understand the logic behind that one) starts on Friday. Does this mean we can look forward to a serious plunge after the games are over? As if it hasn't plunged enough. I bought some FXP today (it's been quite a while..........).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1603&state=original&height=600&width=600
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My puts are strictly on the $RUT, and the position isn't that huge. I might even take it off the table thanks to almost assured Fed wackiness Tuesday at 2:15 EST. As for the $NDX, I'm keeping a close eye on this one to see if it marches toward the fanline above or snaps its ways down to the line below.