四月 30, 2009 - 04:07 下午We've Seen This Movie BeforeIt was nice to get a little, bitty reprieve today (in the form of a failed rally), but this is simply nothing more than a higher low in a whole string of them. So the trend remains up until such time as 838.50 is broken on the /ES. Simple as that.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4227
Posted: 04:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 01:10 下午Does This Seem a Little Vulnerable?http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4226
Posted: 01:10 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 11:45 上午Will CAKE Save Us All?What a dynamo of a company! They must have done something amazing!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4222&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4222&state=present&height=600&width=600
Ohhhhh. Now I see why! Can you say Culinary Breakthroughs? Yowzah!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4225
Posted: 11:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 10:45 上午Couple of Low-Risk Shorts
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4223&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4223&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4224&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4224&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:45 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 10:12 上午Would You Dare?If you think technology is about to flip over........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4220&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4220&state=present&height=600&width=600
Would you dare to take the plunge?
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4221&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4221&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 09:06 上午Turning Your World Upside DownLast night, a Sloper suggested I just "turn charts upside down" to deal better with markets like this. From your lips to God's ears!
Check out this new feature we prototyped last night (quick, ain't we?) Here's the regular chart.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4218
And a Ctrl-U will flip that bad boy around.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4219
Supremely cool, isn't it? Bwa ha ha.
Posted: 09:06 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 30, 2009 - 07:39 上午Any Thoughts on OIH's Shrinking Volume?http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4217
Posted: 07:39 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
What's bothersome about this kind of thing is, I suppose, what bothers a lot of people about Elliott Wave Analysis, which is..........any given interpretation always had an opposite alternate, and if things don't go your way, then you just switch to the alternate without appearing to have really changed horses midstream. In other words, I Am Right Until I Am Wrong. So the ending diagonal which has had everyone (including me) all atwitter is now simply a mistake.
I've been beating the S&P 1,050 drum pretty much since drums were invented, but I am shocked, baffled, surprised, and slack-jawed that it's getting there without one stinking pause. Not one. It just keeps going up.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4215
I will note that today's high was just a hair below the Fibonacci retracement, which is the latest flimsy barrier the bears have erected (this one made up of wet toilet paper and a couple of twigs that were found laying on the ground). It would take a good sneeze to blow it down.
四月 29, 2009 - 10:27 上午Danger ZoneI'm sure every bull whose has read the first two chapters of a technical analysis book is salivating over the prospect of a break above 880, whose measured targeted would be ~1080 on the S&P.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4211
Posted: 10:27 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 29, 2009 - 09:21 上午Pig OutSo is the 500% explosion higher in Applebee's parent company in the span of a few weeks really justified?
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4209&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4209&state=present&height=600&width=600
Oh. Wait. Never mind.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4210
Posted: 09:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 29, 2009 - 08:36 上午Some Stocks I'm (sigh...) Buying
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4205&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4205&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4206&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4206&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4207&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4207&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4208&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4208&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 08:36 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 29, 2009 - 07:47 上午BullisherWell, charts don't lie, and I'm afraid they're looking more bullish all the time. I've mitigated the damage with some big energy longs. It's pretty interesting that the GDP would come in on the low end and everyone would be celebrating. I guess it's inevitable that Q2 to Q1 comparisons for 2009, when they ultimately come out, will be very favorable. In any event, if the FOMC pushes the bulls into a follow-through above 880, it's all over for the bears for now.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4204&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4204&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 29, 2009 - 06:55 上午Energy BreakoutI'm really liking my long positions on energy these days. OIH and USO are my favorites.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4202&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4202&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm using a stop of 87.84 on my OIH long.
Posted: 06:55 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 28, 2009 - 01:42 下午Meat MarketAllow me to try to articulate how this market feels different to me. And let's use a little analogy in which I am a hunter searching for meat. Being a lazy hunter, let's say I'm looking for meat that's already been packaged to take home!
Last autumn, I felt like I had been let into the butcher's aisle at the biggest, newest Whole Foods in the country. I could take whatever I wanted. It was easy. And the only frustration I felt was that, on the way in, I had picked up a shopping basket instead of a big cart, since I could have picked up so much more.
These days, the feeling I have is that - - just before going into the same story, my pockets have been stuffed with pork chops, tri-tip steaks, and hot links, and there are about 75 ravenous hyenas running around inside Whole Foods. I run screaming down the meat aisle, trying to defend myself, trying to keep my own meat from being stolen, and I wind up, breathless, just outside the Exit, having grabbed a single Vienna sausage with some of the gelatinous goo still clinging to it.
And that's certainly what today felt like! Trading a market like this is a huge, huge, huge - - and I'll say it again - - huge amount of work, and the payoff these days is meager.
I will offer a couple of encouraging charts, however. First, there's this one of the /ES since the bottom in March.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4200
I see a real shift going on. the green area was where the bulls were in control. No ifs, ands, or butts. It was their market.
The teal area - - in spite of generally rising - - shows an area of uncertainty and, I think, shift of control. An entire week went by, but no new highs were made.
And then we have the past couple of days. Ever so subtly, the market is moving down. Let's take a closer look.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4201
Today's attempt to surge higher kissed that downward trendline to the penny and then immediately changed direction.
If the bulls can get the /ES above 872, then the bears are, for the time being, completely hosed. I could see the bulls taking the market another 75 points higher from that level without breaking a sweat. If we break 823 on the downside, though, I think 780 is almost a foregone conclusion.
Tomorrow is FOMC day, which means that an additional 425 hyenas will be escorted into Whole Foods before we have to go into the place. I am not looking forward to it.
Posted: 01:42 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 28, 2009 - 12:21 下午Short Ideas (4 of 4)
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4196&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4196&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4197&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4197&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4198&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4198&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4199&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4199&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 12:21 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 28, 2009 - 11:30 上午Short Ideas (3 of 4)In spite of all these short ideas today, I just want to mention I've been heavily accumulating commodity-related ETFs. My biggest positions across all my portfolios right now are long OIH and DBC. Anyway, here are a few more short ideas....
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4192&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4192&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4193&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4193&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4194&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4194&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4195&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4195&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:30 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 28, 2009 - 10:07 上午Short Ideas (2 of 4)
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4188&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4188&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4189&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4189&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4190&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4190&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4191&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4191&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:07 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 28, 2009 - 09:11 上午Short Ideas (1 of 4)
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4184&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4184&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4185&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4185&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4186&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4186&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4187&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4187&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink