五月 14, 2009 - 10:42 上午Some Diamond Patterns
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4339&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4338&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4340&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4340&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:42 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 08:25 上午Target Remains SPY @ 90http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4337
If we can manage to falter around 900 on the /ES, that will be a very big positive for the bears. On the other hand, if we keep pushing up through May 7's highs, the bulls very clearly still have control.
Please note Disqus still seems to be having troubles, so if Slope kind of "stalls" on you, it's because Disqus is failing to load. It also explains why comments are relatively light today.
Posted: 08:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 07:16 上午Failed BreakoutI offer this chart as an example of why stops are important. Here we have STV, which until today was a gorgeous long position. It had a lot going for it - - - a clean pattern, a healthy breakout, and strong volume.
But I set a stop at that horizontal line, and I am no longer in this position. The last thing you want to do is hang on to something when it has had a technical violation like this. The rationale for being an owner no longer exists.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4336&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4336&state=present&height=600&width=600
Also, I'm not positive, but it seems like Disqus might be acting up again. If it is, you probably already realized that.
Posted: 07:16 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 06:33 上午What About DBC?As I look at DBC, I like the steady increase in volume lately as well as its pattern. This could be a dynamite security over the coming months. My own stop on this is quite tight, however, at 21.36. If the pattern can hold together, I think a ride up to 26, which is over 20% higher from here, is quite probable.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4334&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4334&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 06:33 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 01:17 下午Victory!It's been a long time since I've been able to write this, but today was absolutely sensational.
We are at a crucial point, however, and I would be very surprised if the market didn't recover somewhat at this point. For the /ES to push about 15 points higher from here (to around 900) would be healthy for the bears, I think.
Here's something simple I put together:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4333
The horizontal lines are simply the Fibonacci retracements on the /ES from 1/6/09 to 3/6/09. The /ES has been quite fond of clinging to these levels. Now that we're at one of them, I imagine it'll noodle around here or fight its way higher. I am long the /ES right now as an insurance policy, since I've got 201 other positions, almost all of them bearish.
So the best thing for the bears right now would be (a) a push up to the 895-900 area; (b) a resumption of the drop; (c) which pierces the 880 level. At that point I think we've got a clear pathway to 835.
I'm very proud of us; good job, Slopers!
Posted: 01:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 11:40 上午Very Important Test @ 880I have gone long 20 @ES at 883 with a stop below 880 as a hedge. This is a key test for the bears.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4332
Posted: 11:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 11:16 上午The Most Bullish Chart I Follow
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4327&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4327&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 11:16 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 10:15 上午FAS CrackThat's the end of the rally for FAS. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4331&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4331&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:15 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 09:08 上午Exodus 8:2Here are the various major levels of support on the S&P. I am having the best day I've had in ten weeks. Those Goldman Sachs bastards better stay away this time. I'd really appreciate it, fellas. Thanks so much.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4328
Posted: 09:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 08:01 上午Massive Top Pattern in GOOG
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4326&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Huge. Ginormous. Christine Romer big.
Posted: 08:01 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 03:36 下午Good as GoldI've mentioned my fondness for the work of Gary Savage on a number of occasions. Day by day, as I've read his work and looked at the charts, I have come to move over to the side of the gold bulls which Gary proudly inhabits.
I had a couple of reasons for being bearish on gold. One of them is that, looking at the $XAU and $HUI, it seems they are both against some formidable challenges given how far they've come and how much overhead supply there is. Here's the $XAU as an example:
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The other reason is that I do put a certain amount of stock in the folks at Elliott Wave, and they've been tooting the "gold is heading to under $700" horn for many weeks now.
But one can't really argue with gold's persistent strength. And I put that in bold, because it seems to be standing out these days with respect to being able to climb in the face of the diminishment of other assets (oil, stocks, financials). Just look at these two:
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GOLD in particular (as I tweeted a couple of days ago) has been remarkable, having reached lifetime highs the past couple of days. A challenge for me is to be able to buy anything at a new lifetime high, but I've been doing this long enough to understand that new highs often beget more new highs.
Finally, although I am a chartist to the death, I do respect Gary's macroeconomic rationale for believing in gold. It makes sense, to me, at this point in economic history.
Posted: 03:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 12:07 下午Buy 'n' HoldIf anyone needed living proof of the fallacy of buy & hold, General Motors -- makers of the Aztek - - provides it. Click on the "After" to see how this blue-chip stock has fared.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4317&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4317&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 12:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 10:49 上午ANR RetracementI have bought ANR today due to the nice retracement back to its breakout level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4319&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 10:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 10:12 上午TYP Has a Real Purty Mouth
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4318&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 10:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 08:47 上午Bringing Good Things to LifeI reiterate what I tweeted a couple of days ago - that General Electric (GE) is a marvelous short. I accumulated the largest stock position I've ever had in my life on this sucker, and I'm pleased with it thus far. My "eventual" target price is the low single digits (about $4), but I think $11.50 to $12 is in very easy reach within days.
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Posted: 08:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 07:32 上午Strength from WeaknessI am almost afraid to utter (or write) that things are going well, for fear that the Forces of Evil (Geithner, Bernanke, etc.) will do something else to help the bulls. But we're off to a fantastic start. I've trimmed back my irresponsibly large FAZ position at a very nice profit, and I'm enjoying gains almost across the board, including from these two old favorites:
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It's way too early to talk about any kind of "shift" happening, but if we can - - - please, Ursus Major! - - bag a pair of back to back down days, it's something we can consider.
Posted: 07:32 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 07:54 下午FAZensteinWant to see two really interesting graphs that share a lot in common with respect to price action and volume? You do? OK!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4310
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4311
You guessed it; the top one is FAS (back in March) and the bottom one is FAZ (as of today). I'm (slightly) ashamed to admit it, but after a lot of analysis, I took the plunge in FAZ again at $4.80. It's a pretty big position, mainly situated as a hedge against my nutty cheapo stocks in my IRA.
As for what happened to FAS since March, you certainly know that.........
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4312
Posted: 07:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 12:55 下午An Abundance of Short Opportunitieshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4309
Posted: 12:55 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 11:37 上午Another Trio of Interesting Buys
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4306&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 11:37 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 10:07 上午General Electric ShortThis is a thing of beauty. Stop=14.64.
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Posted: 10:07 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 09:01 上午Tri-BuyI am only up to the "D's" of my charts, and have many hundreds to go, but here are a few interesting long prospects to chew upon.
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Let me be clear.............as I'm going through charts, I am more excited than ever about the bearish prospects. But I wanted to throw these bullish ideas out there just for the sake of a bit of balance.
Posted: 09:01 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 07:21 上午Portfolio InsuranceAs I'm going through charts, some of the most wildly vulnerable are in the insurance area; here's one example:
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Posted: 07:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 05:52 上午Red ShootsGood morning, stout yeomen (and, er, yeowomen).
I shorted the /NQ yesterday at 1380.52 and it's inched down slowly all night. I'd say a target of 1315 would be fair for this little pattern.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4299
Let's try to get 'em this week, shall we?
Posted: 05:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 22, 2008 - 03:40 下午ConflictedI determine my belief about the stock market's direction mainly from three sources:
[*]My analysis of major index charts;[*]My analysis of individual stock charts which I consider good opportunities in either direction;[*]The opinions of a handful of site which I respect (already listedThe trouble is, all of these sources are conflicted. Index charts show virtually no support beneath, yet they are astonishingly oversold; I have a mountain of individual stock charts whose own "bear market" has only just begun, and an equal mountain of charts which - - although not classically bullish - - certainly suggest a very strong bounce ahead; and the sites I follow have all manner of opinion, ranging from multiple sequential days of 500 point gains on the Dow to an imminent crash.
So, for the moment, all the easy money seems gone. It's no longer feasible for me to sashay over to a computer and pull a few tens of thousands of bucks out of the market. It's very, very hard to trade right now.
Looking at the SPY over the past few (astonishing) months, it would seem conceivable that there might be a tiny bit more upside Monday morning, but the overhead resistance is very substantial. To put it another way, if any kind of meaningful (that is, greater than 1-day) bounce is going to happen, the SPY must make a decisive and unapologetic push past $83. The action on the SPY from $83 to $100 represents a formidable barrier to upward movement (setting aside the fact that there seems to be no rational reason to buy stock in this market).
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It's the same story with OIH. If we zoom past the $80s, maybe we're finally entering the elusive wave 4; but all recent activity suggests a rise to no higher than $77 or so and then the resumption of the plunge.
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Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2821&state=original&height=600&width=600
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My dread fear is really simple; there's nothing conflicted about it: the market rockets higher for a few days, effectively (a) blasting me out of my shorts and puts, their profits having turned into losses and, simultaneously (b) being completely empty-handed of any long positions. My nightmare would be for any meaningful portion of my substantial (but hard-won) gains of 2008 to get nuked. I just won't stand for it. I have thus (yet again) hedged my bearish portfolio with a few large ultra ETFs and some stocks which, in the context of a strong push higher, would zoom up in value. Some of these are items like ANF and AA, which have simply gotten creamed over the past couple of months:
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And others, like BAC, are at "interesting" technical levels of support:
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Most stocks - - indeed, a very large percentage of those that I follow - look like AES. That is, (a) long-term bearish pattern; (b) short term "churning", suggesting an attempt to base; (c) the potential for a set-up of an incredible short opportunity, if equities in general do push higher.
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I'm not usually a person who pays a lot of attention to sentiment indicators, but those I have seen recently make a strong case for the bullish argument. Just about everyone has assumed the world is about to end. With that kind of mentality, it's easy to understand how the simplest (and, frankly, irrelevant) smidgen of news, such as the candidate of Treasury Secretary, can suddenly make the market blast 500 points higher in the span of an hour. That's not the kind of windstorm I want to be caught in with a 100% bearish portfolio.
Anyway, I can't say to you if I'm feeling really bearish or really bullish. If pressed, I guess I'd say my feeling is we'll get a final plunge in the early part of this week and, at long last, can start to push higher in a big wave 4. I hope it works out that way, because this market is absolutely dying for some kind of consistency, since it has been chewing virtually all traders to pieces lately.
Posted: 03:40 下午 | 212 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 28, 2008 - 12:20 下午Incredibly ObviousSome buys are just too screamingly obvious. Dow 30 components. Smashed to pieces. Buying.
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Posted: 12:20 下午 | 57 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 22, 2008 - 11:36 上午Alcoa Can't Wait for Tomorrow
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Posted: 11:36 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink