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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1940&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1940&state=present&height=600&width=600
One specific issue I've gone long is ABX. I'm not sure if it would push its way as high as that horizontal line; it's sort of done that already; but I think this is good for a couple of points.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1941&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1941&state=present&height=600&width=600
A larger point move is more likely with FCX, which got near a major support level that stretches back more than a year.
A larger point move is more likely with FCX, which got near a major support level that stretches back more than a year.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1942&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1942&state=present&height=600&width=600
I bought puts on CLX about a week ago, and it's just about the only thing I own that's in the red. I'm willing to hang on. I like the look of this chart.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1944&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1944&state=present&height=600&width=600
Of course, I am delighted that the $UTIL finally broke down. We've been waiting a few weeks for this, and it's finally here. The FNM/FRE bailout will probably send interest rates zooming higher, and obviously that will be great for this bearish position.
Of course, I am delighted that the $UTIL finally broke down. We've been waiting a few weeks for this, and it's finally here. The FNM/FRE bailout will probably send interest rates zooming higher, and obviously that will be great for this bearish position.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1945&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1945&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for which energy issues I've been buying, I've been focusing on those charts which have retraced to safe support levels. Let's face it - the chart below is pretty bullish looking. In some cases, I might not even hold on just for a quick bounce; there is a real argument to be made for the long-term strength of such a graph. Of course, it would have to push past its August highs. If it did, this becomes a dynamite bullish chart.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1946&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1946&state=present&height=600&width=600
I think the investment banks could find some serious strength too. Just look at MER (incredibly, this retracement pattern goes back to 1974!) I think a ride up to the high 30s is absolutely within reason.
While energies in general have been falling, natural gas in particular has been getting just obliterated. Look at the continous contract below for the NG futures. There is a hugh amount of ownership at these price levels. I think support here will be terribly strong.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1948&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1948&state=present&height=600&width=600
.......which led me to go long (for the first time ever) UNG.......
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1949&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1949&state=present&height=600&width=600
In some cases Friday, I was tempted to take profits, but I wanted to be in a position to take more if the fall extended. EXC was a good example. I had four puts, which about $6,000. I decided to sell half the position (for about 100% profit) and hang on to the other half. To be honest, I can't picture this falling much more right now, so I've set my stop absurdly tight. But you never know.
In some cases Friday, I was tempted to take profits, but I wanted to be in a position to take more if the fall extended. EXC was a good example. I had four puts, which about $6,000. I decided to sell half the position (for about 100% profit) and hang on to the other half. To be honest, I can't picture this falling much more right now, so I've set my stop absurdly tight. But you never know.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1950&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1950&state=present&height=600&width=600
Well, I'm typing this from my little girl's gym, which smells like someone's jogging sock, so I'll sign off until Monday. If the rumors are true about FNM and FRE, it's going to be an amazing Monday. I get very cautious when things go this well - - I'm expecting the trading gods to come down and smack me with losses. But if one remains humble, cautious, and prudent, you can at least make sure your ego and success don't come back and force humility down your throat by means of losses.
Posted: 09:48 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 05, 2008 - 09:15 上午By Jove, HolmesI'm buying calls on a variety of gold and energy issues (carefully-selected ones). Here are a few.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1931&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1931&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1932&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1932&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1933&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1933&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1934&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1934&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:15 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 05, 2008 - 04:01 下午The Wall of WorryI am writing this entry on Saturday, July 5th during a very pleasant three-day weekend in Colorado. I do not think I will have an opportunity to do another post until Monday night.
Over the past couple of days, I have spent a lot of time (as you might imagine) thinking about the markets and looking at the charts. The "contrarian-contrarian" viewpoint seems to be going something like this: "Since everything is so bearish (including this weeks' cover story of Barron's), then the obvious contrarian conclusion is that the market is going to bounce. But since so many contarians are so loudly declaring that we're a bounce is inevitable at this point, then we're bound to keep falling, because the market always like to surprise the most people possible."
That kind of thinking - - that is, trying to outguess what everyone on the planet is thinking - - can make you crazy. I prefer to stick to the charts. What the charts are telling me is that we're in for a bounce (and not the kind that lasts for just a few hours). I don't intend to get overly aggressive about this bounce. But I will say that (a) I took a huge portion of my positions either wholly or partly off the table on Friday, including all my index puts; (b) I went long a number of bullish ETF funds (the double-correlated kind); (c) I intend to make select long equity purchases on Monday, barring a surprise.
One index chart that seems terribly ripe for at least a few days of an upturn is the $XBD:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1287&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1287&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the $INDU, its price has the Bollinger Band distorted verybadly, and I think a list of about 700 points higher from here would bring a lot of needed relief to the market (and a new opportunity for the author and readers of this blog to reload).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1288&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1288&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Transports, too, look ready to get back to about 5,100; a drop in crude prices, which I strongly suspect will happen, will provide an impetus for such a climb.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1289&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1289&state=present&height=600&width=600
My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.
My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1290&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1290&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1291&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1291&state=present&height=600&width=600
To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.
To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1293&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1293&state=present&height=600&width=600
I read somewhere that GM was at the lowest levels for its stock since 1954. I'm not sure where they are getting that price data, but it's not really accurate, as you can see below. In any case, if you had bought GM when Lyndon Johnson was present, you would (even assuming 0% infllation for 40 years) still be in the red. Isn't that amazing?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1294&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1294&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.
The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1295&state=present&height=600&width=600
The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1296&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.
And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1297&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a different view of the same index with similar conclusions.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1298&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.
The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1299&state=present&height=600&width=600
I still have plenty of puts, but they are almost all in the energy or agriculture sector. Here are a few favorites........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1303&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1304&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1306&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1307&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've been pretty repetitive about ICE, but I'm just crazy about this one.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1308&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1308&state=present&height=600&width=600
I am counting on a drop in gold, and my short in ABX is my favorite one there.
I am counting on a drop in gold, and my short in ABX is my favorite one there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1309&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1309&state=present&height=600&width=600
EOG pierced its necklined beautfully on Thursday.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1310&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1310&state=present&height=600&width=600
Honeywell's breakdown under its consolidation range makes for another nice short.
Honeywell's breakdown under its consolidation range makes for another nice short.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1311&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1311&state=present&height=600&width=600
And another one of my "dainty little H&S" patterns is NIHD.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1312&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1312&state=present&height=600&width=600
After such a dynamite time lately, I am putting on my Cautious & Humble hat, because after a load of profits, it's easy to screw up. I have no intention of repeating the mid-March through mid-May fiasco. I have reduced my risk substantially, and I intend to play what I see as a firm likelihood of a bounce conservatively.
Once again, I probably won't be able to do a new post until late night Monday, although I'll probably pop into the comments section now and then. Thanks for coming by, as always!
Posted: 04:01 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two CitiesIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=552&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=554&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=555&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=556&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=557&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=559&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=560&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=558&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).