十月 13, 2008 - 11:02 上午First Set of Shorts
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Posted: 11:02 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ABFS (1)
十月 11, 2008 - 08:29 上午Praying for a RetracementThere won't be any need for interepretation. Here's what I believe and thus how I am positioned:
[*]The market is going to engage in an explosive rally, shocking everyone, and taking tons of fear out of the market. My target for the S&P is somewhere in the 1075-1100 range.[*]The VIX will plunge back into "the newnormal" of the mid-30s.[*]Once the rebound is done, around Halloween, it will be the bearish opportunity of a lifetime.By stating the above, I have distinguished myself from 99.99999999% of bloggers and financial journalists by being extremely specific. The risk of this is twofold: one, looking like a complete moron if the opposite happens; and two, losing a lot of money, since I've never owned so much stock in my life. I bought many securities at the depths of Friday because - - and this may be the only time you ever read these words from my fingers - - they were cheap.
The speed of the plunge was simply breathtaking. The Russell 2000 lost 30% of its value in seven sessions.
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I don't usually keep "fervent prayer" in my playbook, but if by some miracle we were to retrace to the breakdown point of about 650, you'd see me on the street corner selling my soul to the devil in exchange for the cash I'd want to short this market. OK, OK, I've got enough cash. I can keep my soul. Suffice it to say, this would be the stuff of which bear legends were made.
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The Dow Utilities have the same beautiful pattern. My analysis of this pattern was astonishing. My trading of this pattern was astonishingly amateurish. I sold SDP at $70 and it doubled in value in a week's time.
The Dow Utilities have the same beautiful pattern. My analysis of this pattern was astonishing. My trading of this pattern was astonishingly amateurish. I sold SDP at $70 and it doubled in value in a week's time.
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As regulars know, I made another bold move by buying a very large OIH call position Friday afternoon. At first OIH sank a little below my entry point, then it surged higher. I feel this is a solid trade, at least until $110.
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All my positions are long, and all of them are ambitious. I have not a single bearish position in any of my three accounts. Some are particularly aggressive, such as ABK, which I managed to buy at $1.34 on Friday (notice the declining volume over the past few weeks, when the price was also declining).
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All my positions are long, and all of them are ambitious. I have not a single bearish position in any of my three accounts. Some are particularly aggressive, such as ABK, which I managed to buy at $1.34 on Friday (notice the declining volume over the past few weeks, when the price was also declining).
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MBI is a similar story.
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I bought SOHU,but this is actually a stock that looks genuinely good for the long haul - - or at least until it gets back into the $70-ish area. This is a beautiful chart, and the fact I think China is going to recover strongly too only bolsters the case.
I bought SOHU,but this is actually a stock that looks genuinely good for the long haul - - or at least until it gets back into the $70-ish area. This is a beautiful chart, and the fact I think China is going to recover strongly too only bolsters the case.
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Not to mimic Trading Goddess, but "look at the volume!" SSO traded a few million shares a day in August. On Friday it traded over 130 million shares. I own a lot of SSO in two of my accounts.
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Besides the "retrace to the neckline" pattern, the other one I'm seeing over and over again is the one where the price has fallen far, far, far away from the major broken trendline. It's tougher to know how long to hold on to these.
Besides the "retrace to the neckline" pattern, the other one I'm seeing over and over again is the one where the price has fallen far, far, far away from the major broken trendline. It's tougher to know how long to hold on to these.
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The past four weeks have been very good to me. If I had been a lot braver, they would have been ridiculously, obscenely, horribly "Lear Jet" good. But let's not go there :-) The traffic to the blog this week was also spectacular. I imagine it will soften up quite a bit as bear-mania starts to fade. But I've already got my fiendish plans in place for when the bulls think everything is OK again. Until then, I'm going to innocently blend into the herd and be one of them.
Posted: 08:29 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 04, 2008 - 07:24 上午The Financials Will Do the RestFinancials have had a huge rebound. I think it's over, and I think their next slide is going to be just what the market needs to resume its collapse. At least I hope so. Here are some charts for you to ponder.
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Posted: 07:24 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 29, 2008 - 08:56 上午Chats MortsAnd the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls and tenement halls and whispered in the sounds of silence.
To me, nothing is more representative of the low quality of the recent rally than the kinds of stocks which have been rising the most. Just look at this detritus:
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To be blunt, I think the people piling into such issues are fools. They may have not looked foolish through yesterday, but I think the entire bounce higher is simply a pause in a much bigger trend.
As for today, it's nice to get some relief. As of this writing, the Dow is down triple digits. If it holds, we're going to wind up with another complete waste-of-time of a week, since the lurching up and down merely continues. Regardless, as we bid August farewell, we can look forward to September, which has the distinction of being the only consistently "down" month in the year.
I'll see you after the close.
Posted: 08:56 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 10, 2008 - 08:42 上午Little Shop of HorrorsI read that a commentator on CNBC uttered the most idiotic of notions a couple of days ago: "It's not a loss until you sell." Try telling that to the holders of any of the firms below. And, believe me, this is just a very small sampling.
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Posted: 08:42 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:
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Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.
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I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.