五月 23, 2008 - 03:26 下午The Bear is BackThis week was pivotal. Although I don't think it's going to be straight down from here, in my opinion, this week's action has brought an end to the bear market rally that spanned from mid-March until mid-May. Our national nightmare is over.
All the indexes got beaten up, but their patterns and projections all vary. Investment banks had a tough week, and this chart of the $XBD suggests the high made on May 2 was simply another "lower high" in a long progression downward.
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The NASDAQ bounced off major resistance at about 2,550 and also has cut through its 25% median line. At this point, as I mentioned in my prior post, I closed out my NDX and SPX puts for good profits. I have one index position - on the Russell 2000 - which I entered late today. But everything else is just shorts and equity puts.
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This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
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I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)
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The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
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And - - I've just got to say it - - 1383 on the S&P is broken! I have been yacking about that level for ages. It finally broke today. More importantly, the close was near the day's lows. We didn't rally. We are plainly below 1383 now.
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Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
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.......Capital One, which is very near its supporting trendline........
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.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
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As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.
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Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
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Cerner is falling away from its major resistance at $48.75.
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Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
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And Schlumberger is also falling away from major resistance.
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So - - a great week! And quite a contrast to the last few. To close today, here's an interesting new video from Don Harrold (I own puts on ISRG, so I found this especially intriguing; plus I have this quirky fondness for the truth, so Cramer gets on my nerves too).
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.
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Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!
Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AA (7)
五月 14, 2009 - 10:42 上午Some Diamond Patterns
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Posted: 10:42 上午 | 51 insightful comments | Permalink
四月 16, 2009 - 05:48 上午Diamond in the RoughI got up at 5 to start looking at my Core List with fresh eyes. Here's one I noted with a clean diamond pattern, which is pretty unusual. But really, this is mostly just a comment-cleaner to start our Thursday together.
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Posted: 05:48 上午 | 48 insightful comments | Permalink
AAON (2)
四月 22, 2009 - 06:49 上午Good Morning, CaptainI was stopped out of a number of positions today (all of them shorts). What's interesting about these graphs is that they are still pretty compelling looking shorts. I've moved them into my "Bear Pen" watch list. It may seem daft to consider re-shorting something that was just stopped out, but I am always willing to wait a little later in the day and re-evaluate the chart and see if there is still a good risk/reward ratio.......perhaps with a more liberal stop........on such symbols.
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Posted: 06:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 17, 2009 - 06:41 上午Low PlateauI'm going through charts with All Daily History now, which means I am seeing them back to the late 1960s (or whenever they went public). One thing that strikes me is just how far some stocks could still fall during a protracted bear market. Apple, for example, could conceivably go back into the high teens. Impossible, you say? That's not a word you should use during a market like this.
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Posted: 06:41 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 24, 2009 - 08:40 上午Short Ideas (1 of 3)
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Posted: 08:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 25, 2008 - 01:59 下午Then I Woke UpIn this weekend's I wrote, "Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday."
Well, I was neither surprised nor disappointed. I got the "one-two punch" I was hoping for............a drop across the board in oil, gold, and equities. The notion that these are inversely correlated is, in my opinion, total nonsense, and I am positioned as such. Today's 241 point drop on the Dow was welcome, and the last three days of this week are packed with important economic reports.
Observant readers may notice that my have dropped from something like 95% to 77%. The reason for this is that we've changed how this is calculated. Last week, a reader pointed out what he felt was a mathematical flaw in the calculation; I agreed, and I asked an engineer to correct it. This has been corrected, but still, the figures shown are not bad! Please keep in mind my about this figure, no matter what it says.
Today I'm simply going to show you my favorite current positions. I've got a total of 109 - - yes, 109! - - positions, every single one of them bearish. But here are my jumping-up-and-down favorite ones.........
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