Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=643&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=643&state=present&height=600&width=600
And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=650&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=650&state=present&height=600&width=600
Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman......
.........Goldman........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=645&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=645&state=present&height=600&width=600
.........JP Morgan..........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=651&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=651&state=present&height=600&width=600
.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........
.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=652&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=652&state=present&height=600&width=600
It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!
Posted: 05:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 22, 2008 - 02:17 下午Semi-SatisfiedToday was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'mnot complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=598&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=598&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 - - a thousand points is a lot to chop through.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=599&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=599&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.
I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=600&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=600&state=present&height=600&width=600
The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=601&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=601&state=present&height=600&width=600
I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=602&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=602&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=603&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=603&state=present&height=600&width=600
There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....
There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=604&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=604&state=present&height=600&width=600
.......and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=605&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=605&state=present&height=600&width=600
I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=606&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=606&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=607&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=607&state=present&height=600&width=600
AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.
AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=608&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=608&state=present&height=600&width=600
I like my BHI puts a lot, not only due to the Bollinger Bands, but also due to that trendline retracement.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=609&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=609&state=present&height=600&width=600
XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=610&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=610&state=present&height=600&width=600
If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.
If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=611&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=611&state=present&height=600&width=600
First Solar (FSLR) is above $300, but I'm staying away. Its pattern is still plausibly bullish. Its cousin, though, SPWR, looks far more vulnerable.
Original [*]Present
Finally, my holding with GENZ did pretty well today. This pattern continues to shape up.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=613&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=613&state=present&height=600&width=600
I will be traveling on business over the next 30 hours from this writing, so posts will be less frequent (and comments near non-existent). Be strong!
Posted: 02:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 21, 2008 - 02:44 下午OIH=Oh, I HopedForgive me, readers, for I have sinned.
In mythe very first one I state - which I consider the most important - is to never lack a stop price. I had a position on OIH. I had a stop at $195. And as it, to my amazement, approached that level, I simply cancelled the stop.
That was really, really dumb. My "three rules" were crafted over many years of hard experience. I say "no exceptions" for a reason. Telling myself I'd ride out the tide and see how it goes was the kind of mistake an amateur makes.
Well, you know how this story ends. OIH kept grinding higher and higher, and once it reached $208, I couldn't take the pain anymore, so I sold my puts at a far greater loss than if I had simply let the stop do its work.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=589
Now, at this point, there is a possibility OIH could temporarily top out and weaken. But - - again - - simply hanging onto a position and hoping for the best is idiocy. Shame on me.
OK, enough self-flagellation for the moment. The market continues to be far stronger than I'd like to see. Yeah, the Dow fell a little today, but I still think we're in "retracement-land". I am watching, for example, the $MSH. I am OK with it so long as it stays beneath that horizontal line.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=590
One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.
One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=591
As for oil - in spite of my debacle with OIH, I still have a lot of oil-related shorts. Chart-wise, there is a lot of interesting activity here. BHI has fully retraced to what I consider a face shorting zone.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=592
And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.
And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=593
My martyr complex is on full-blast right now, so I'd say the video below represents my vision of what a Slope Convention in Vegas would be like in August. A few of the dramatis personae......
[*]Jesus H. Christ - Tim (who else?)[*]Mary Magdalene - Jana (understudy: Avalon)[*]Judas Iscariot - JakeGint[*]Simon Zealotes - Peachin[*]King Herod - Ned[*]Caiaphas- Abby Joseph Cohen[*]Pontius Pilate - Beanie
Posted: 02:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 29, 2008 - 04:57 下午Weekend ReviewHappy weekend, everyone. I had a terrific trading week, and although I'm still concerned that we're between a rock and a hard place in the markets (in the middle, uncertain what is coming next), there's nothing I can do to change it, so I'm just doing the best I'm able.
The task before us is plain (again, not that we can do anything about it): push beneath the "shelf of support" ranging from 645 to 680. Do that, and it's an all-clear for the bears.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=373
The problem is that you can look at the activity on the IWM and construct a bullish or a bearish argument out of it. One could take the past 60 days of the IWM and plausibly state that we've just done a retracement back to a cup with handle breakout, and it's ready to blast higher to new highs for 2008.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=374
Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).
Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=375
I lightened up quite a bit on index holdings due to this uncertainty and am more weighted to sectors I think are more cleanly ripe for a fall, such as oil services.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=376
I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.
I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=377
ACL seems to be wrapping up a nice topping pattern.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=378
I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.
I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=379
APA is a higher risk play, due to its strength, but any weakness in oil could make for a juicy 20 point drop (and thus a huge jump in the option value).
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=380
Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.
Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=381
I haven't done anything with GENZ in years, but I've got puts on this since the pattern is mildly interesting.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=382
Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!
Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=383
We've got a new puppy in the house, so I'd better go romp some more. See you Monday.
Posted: 04:57 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
三月 27, 2008 - 07:11 上午Apple ShortOK, I need to talk about something - anything - to get Hillary's face off the top of Slope. So it'll be AAPL.
I've got puts on this, and I might get some more at these levels. I like how this price has broken its major trendline, fallen hard, and now has retraced to close its gap.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=365
Here's a closer view.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=366
It was weird to see the headline "Worst GDP in Six Years" this morning with a gain on the Dow next to it. Oh, well. As of this writing (only about 40 minutes into the open), it looks like the SPX and NDX are down, and the Dow has whithered away to just about flat. Naturally I always worry that the bad news is already priced in!
Posted: 07:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
AAPL (25)
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-21 10:38 编辑 ]