And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?
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Ah, yes, and First Solar. I've said repeatedly $250 is the key level. Well, this goose is cooked. I'm hanging on to this position so I can watch it grow.
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A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.
A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.
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With energy softening, there are a lot of high fliers with plenty of room beneath this. Cimarex is a favorite of mine.
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Lastly, Valmont is at the high end of a broadening top.
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I am, by the way, on my way to my CMT. There are three examinations, and I passed the first one (I found out yesterday). I have to admit, I'm a little shocked. There were so many point & figure questions (about which I know next to nothing), I was sure I had flunked. Onward!
Posted: 02:34 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 23, 2008 - 10:30 下午Late NightIt wasn't that long ago that I'd do one blog entry a day and feel like a champ. This is my 5th posting today, and I'd feel guilty if I didn't get it done. Anyhoo.........
I see that the Chinese stock markets are exploding higher again. is that the government - which seems passionately devoted to propping up its local stock market - dropped its "trading tax" by two-thirds. That sounds like a lot, but this tax went from 3 tenths of a percent to 1 tenth of a percent. In spite of what sounds like rounding error to me, that was cause for celebration in China.
I've noticed something else as well - - "calling the bottom" has become a passionate hobby these days. It seems like convinced that the grueling (10%), extremely long (weeks and weeks) bear market is finally at an end. I offer ABK as a symbol of the danger of bottom calling. At every one of the tinted zones shown below, one could have plausibly said, "prices have stabilized and things are settling down; time to buy!" And you can see what happened each time.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=616
A deeper example of how badly people can get it wrong sometimes is Starbucks. This company, which dropped another 10% after hours today, has been falling for months. But go to Amazon and do a search for Starbucks, and you'll see a mountain of books that tell business people how they can emulate the Starbucks way to forge their own prosperity.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=617
I won't bother showing the OIH graph for a millionth time; it has displaced IWM as my obsession these days. I will tip my hat at the reader who turned me on to DUG, the double-inverse fund. I put my entire IRA into this item, and it's up nicely over a just a couple of days. I could see 20-25% more over the coming weeks, possibly. I've drawn a tiny red line indicating my entry point.
I won't bother showing the OIH graph for a millionth time; it has displaced IWM as my obsession these days. I will tip my hat at the reader who turned me on to DUG, the double-inverse fund. I put my entire IRA into this item, and it's up nicely over a just a couple of days. I could see 20-25% more over the coming weeks, possibly. I've drawn a tiny red line indicating my entry point.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=618
My puts in ABX and $XAU are doing nicely. Gold is really starting to take a beating. I'd consider getting out when it gets down to that purple zone. Until then, I'm holding.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=620
I have a kitchen in serious need of cleaning, and as a Felix Unger type, duty calls. Good night, and I'll see you in the ante meridian.
Posted: 10:30 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
三月 06, 2008 - 06:49 上午Oedipus WrecksWith all the small ups and downs from day to day, it's easy to lose sight of what a devastating bear market it has been for stocks in the real estate finance arena. It just goes to show how the mighty have fallen. Breathtaking.
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Original [*]Present[*]ABK (9)[*]Posted: 06:49 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-22 09:28 编辑 ]
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Posted: 06:49 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
十月 13, 2008 - 11:02 上午First Set of Shorts
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Posted: 11:02 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.
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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.
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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.
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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.
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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.
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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.
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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.
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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.
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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.
Posted: 03:03 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ABT (3)
九月 06, 2008 - 09:48 上午Thank HankThe news looming over all of us now is It is reported this would be the largest bailout in the nation's history. As an American, this saddens me. It saddens me to see the government of our country turn its back on true capitalism and whore the nation's treasury for the sake of their friends. This is not how a free market behaves. Free markets - - true free markets - - are natural, healthy, and self-cleansing. Sometimes the cleansing process is painful. But what Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are doing is destroying the country's future for the short-term benefit of ingratiating themselves to their small body of constituents.
Having said that, as a bear, I couldn't be happier with this news. As readers here know, last week was sensational for me. But I got out of my index puts since I felt they had done their duty, and I wanted to see indexes fight their way back to their failure levels before re-entering those positions. But what would create such an opportunity? What new reason would the bulls be given to buy? Well, my friends, the reason is here. Straight from God in heaven above. Another bailout. Another white horse. Thanks, Hank. I'm not the patient sort, and this is going to let me reload without the bother of waiting around.
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As for where to re-enter - - anything near 1,260 on the S&P 500 is going to get me excited.
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Folks who read this blog aren't used to hear me talking about "buying calls" and "going long", but on Friday, that's exactly what I did. I loaded up on precisely those things which had made me money on the short side just days earlier..........oil.........gold..........ags. This is somewhat risky, since I am betting on a countertrend movement, but that's how I am positioned. Playing both sides requires ridiculous amounts of dexterity; I'm not sure if it will pan out, but to my way of thinking, the graphs are telling me that it's time for a bounce higher before we resume the broader bearish sweep down.
Folks who read this blog aren't used to hear me talking about "buying calls" and "going long", but on Friday, that's exactly what I did. I loaded up on precisely those things which had made me money on the short side just days earlier..........oil.........gold..........ags. This is somewhat risky, since I am betting on a countertrend movement, but that's how I am positioned. Playing both sides requires ridiculous amounts of dexterity; I'm not sure if it will pan out, but to my way of thinking, the graphs are telling me that it's time for a bounce higher before we resume the broader bearish sweep down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1938&state=present&height=600&width=600
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