I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.
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One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.
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On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.
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Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.
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I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
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One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.
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In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
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I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!
Posted: 05:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 09, 2008 - 04:25 下午
The broader brokerage picture, however, is still fairly bleak. The $XBD is down 40% from its peak, but as you can see from this graph, there's still plenty of open air beneath current prices. Another 50 points off this index seems totally plausible in 2008.
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The widely-anticipated iPhone announcement came today. I mentioned a couple of times last week what old news this was, and the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" rule held true here. At one point, AAPL was down about 9 points. Even with the drop "only" at $4.03, this chart is more attractive than before.
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The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.
The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.
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The $COMPQ is a little easier for me to interpret. We've got very strong resistance at 2,550, indicated by the purple line, and a drop below 2,425 would be very bearish.
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The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.
The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1068&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1068&state=present&height=600&width=600
The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.
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My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.
My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.
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"Fizzler" (FSLR) had another nice drop today, reaffirming how broken its former support is.
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And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
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AMLN, one of my equity shorts, had a nice double-digit percentage drop today.
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And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).
And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).
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Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.
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One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1078&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1078&state=present&height=600&width=600
And, finally, one specific real estate short is LRY.
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After Friday's fireworks, today was a snoozer. Oh, well! Not every day can be 400 points off the Dow, can it? Good night!
Posted: 04:25 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 05, 2008 - 02:59 下午The Indefatigable ConsumerI'm starting to worry that this economy is mysteriously stronger - - either through truthful data or otherwise - - than we had suspected. In spite of a host of unprecedented challenges, including a collapsing housing market and exploding energy costs, the U.S. consumer still seems fully committed to keep using debt to buy stuff. And buying stuff is what makes this country tick. And for all that, it was an awful day for the bears, with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points.
The tidy gains made over the prior three days were wiped out in one session. What bothers me isn't they forsaken profits - - it's the wasted time. It takes a lot of time to analyze charts, do good analysis, execute trades, and set responsible stops. That time is well spent when it yields profits. But in a see-saw market when paper profits get nuked by a single strong day, the only gain to be had is exasperation.
One could, I suppose, avoid such frustration by piling into any of the momentum stocks that are trading, such as the one below. I just don't have the personality to do it, just like I didn't have the personality in 1999 to pile into Internet stocks. I'm too scared of when the music is going to stop playing. Shame on me for being that way, but it's just how I'm put together. The stock below, for all I know, could go up ten-fold from here. But a chart like this simply makes me nervous.
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Besides strong retail sales, another thing pushing up the market (particularly with oil and commodity issues) was the resumption of the dollar's fall and oil's rise. Crude oil futures pushed nearly 5% higher today alone.
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Another disturbingly bullish sign is the $XBD. I had mentioned a few days ago the nascent series of higher highs and higher lows had been eliminated. I'm embarrassed to say this was incorrect due to a data error from our price feed. This error has been corrected, and as you can see, the setup for a reversal in this index is still very much intact.
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Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
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Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.
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Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
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An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.
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The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
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My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.
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The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away
The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.
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Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.
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AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
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ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
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CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
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Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.
Posted: 02:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 02, 2008 - 07:53 下午Patience!This week is relatively light on economic events, with the exception of Friday's unemployment report, but today still provided some interesting fireworks.
I've been following the $XBD (AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer index) with great interest over the past year. This index peaked in June, and it got smacked hard in July, October, January, and March. A few days ago, I was starting to wonder if the bottom had been reached with the March 17 Bear Stearns bailout. One could see a lower in mid-March, a higher low in April, and a higher low in May. Perhaps a new uptrend was in the works.
I think today answered that question - - the trend appears to still be down. If we take out April's lows, which we can close to doing today, the entire "higher lows" pattern has been zeroed out.
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The downgrading of the investment banks had sweeping effects throughout the market. The Dow was down 200 points intraday, although it closed down 134 points. It is still dancing around its Fibonacci retracement, but it is on the underside of it with good prospects of moving beneath April's lows.
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Although high-tech had a very big bounce from mid-March to mid-May, the action over the past couple of weeks may be marking an exhaustion point. The $MSH, shown below, tried last Friday to push to a new high for the year, but it fell short. Today the price of the index started falling away from that level, and a crack beneath 580 would seal the fate of this index.
Although high-tech had a very big bounce from mid-March to mid-May, the action over the past couple of weeks may be marking an exhaustion point. The $MSH, shown below, tried last Friday to push to a new high for the year, but it fell short. Today the price of the index started falling away from that level, and a crack beneath 580 would seal the fate of this index.
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A similar phenomenon can be seen with the $COMPQ, although the bearish point is easier to judge; a break beneath 2,430 would clearly indicate lower prices ahead., as the failure to move above the resistance line is a loud signal of the bulls' failure.
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Another interesting NASDAQ pattern I am watching is the ascending price channel on the $NDX (NASDAQ 100). A dip beneath last Wednesday's low price would crack the lower support line and, in my estimation, signal we have entered a "C" wave downward.
Another interesting NASDAQ pattern I am watching is the ascending price channel on the $NDX (NASDAQ 100). A dip beneath last Wednesday's low price would crack the lower support line and, in my estimation, signal we have entered a "C" wave downward.
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I have a few puts in semiconductor stocks (like KLAC) since the one index I was fairly bullish on a couple of months ago seems to have petered out as well - - the $SOX.
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I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the