五月 12, 2009 - 07:32 上午Strength from WeaknessI am almost afraid to utter (or write) that things are going well, for fear that the Forces of Evil (Geithner, Bernanke, etc.) will do something else to help the bulls. But we're off to a fantastic start. I've trimmed back my irresponsibly large FAZ position at a very nice profit, and I'm enjoying gains almost across the board, including from these two old favorites:
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It's way too early to talk about any kind of "shift" happening, but if we can - - - please, Ursus Major! - - bag a pair of back to back down days, it's something we can consider.
Posted: 07:32 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 07:54 下午FAZensteinWant to see two really interesting graphs that share a lot in common with respect to price action and volume? You do? OK!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4310
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4311
You guessed it; the top one is FAS (back in March) and the bottom one is FAZ (as of today). I'm (slightly) ashamed to admit it, but after a lot of analysis, I took the plunge in FAZ again at $4.80. It's a pretty big position, mainly situated as a hedge against my nutty cheapo stocks in my IRA.
As for what happened to FAS since March, you certainly know that.........
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4312
Posted: 07:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 12:55 下午An Abundance of Short Opportunitieshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4309
Posted: 12:55 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 11:37 上午Another Trio of Interesting Buys
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4306&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 11:37 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 10:07 上午General Electric ShortThis is a thing of beauty. Stop=14.64.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4305&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4305&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:07 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 09:01 上午Tri-BuyI am only up to the "D's" of my charts, and have many hundreds to go, but here are a few interesting long prospects to chew upon.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4302&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Let me be clear.............as I'm going through charts, I am more excited than ever about the bearish prospects. But I wanted to throw these bullish ideas out there just for the sake of a bit of balance.
Posted: 09:01 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 07:21 上午Portfolio InsuranceAs I'm going through charts, some of the most wildly vulnerable are in the insurance area; here's one example:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4301&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4301&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:21 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 11, 2009 - 05:52 上午Red ShootsGood morning, stout yeomen (and, er, yeowomen).
I shorted the /NQ yesterday at 1380.52 and it's inched down slowly all night. I'd say a target of 1315 would be fair for this little pattern.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4299
Let's try to get 'em this week, shall we?
Posted: 05:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
十一月 22, 2008 - 03:40 下午ConflictedI determine my belief about the stock market's direction mainly from three sources:
[*]My analysis of major index charts;[*]My analysis of individual stock charts which I consider good opportunities in either direction;[*]The opinions of a handful of site which I respect (already listedThe trouble is, all of these sources are conflicted. Index charts show virtually no support beneath, yet they are astonishingly oversold; I have a mountain of individual stock charts whose own "bear market" has only just begun, and an equal mountain of charts which - - although not classically bullish - - certainly suggest a very strong bounce ahead; and the sites I follow have all manner of opinion, ranging from multiple sequential days of 500 point gains on the Dow to an imminent crash.
So, for the moment, all the easy money seems gone. It's no longer feasible for me to sashay over to a computer and pull a few tens of thousands of bucks out of the market. It's very, very hard to trade right now.
Looking at the SPY over the past few (astonishing) months, it would seem conceivable that there might be a tiny bit more upside Monday morning, but the overhead resistance is very substantial. To put it another way, if any kind of meaningful (that is, greater than 1-day) bounce is going to happen, the SPY must make a decisive and unapologetic push past $83. The action on the SPY from $83 to $100 represents a formidable barrier to upward movement (setting aside the fact that there seems to be no rational reason to buy stock in this market).
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It's the same story with OIH. If we zoom past the $80s, maybe we're finally entering the elusive wave 4; but all recent activity suggests a rise to no higher than $77 or so and then the resumption of the plunge.
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Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
Looking at the SPY in a larger context, as I've pointed out, the rise in the late 1990s was pretty relentless, but that also means there's virtually nothing in the way of price support on the way down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2821&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2821&state=present&height=600&width=600
My dread fear is really simple; there's nothing conflicted about it: the market rockets higher for a few days, effectively (a) blasting me out of my shorts and puts, their profits having turned into losses and, simultaneously (b) being completely empty-handed of any long positions. My nightmare would be for any meaningful portion of my substantial (but hard-won) gains of 2008 to get nuked. I just won't stand for it. I have thus (yet again) hedged my bearish portfolio with a few large ultra ETFs and some stocks which, in the context of a strong push higher, would zoom up in value. Some of these are items like ANF and AA, which have simply gotten creamed over the past couple of months:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2822&state=original&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2824&state=original&height=600&width=600
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And others, like BAC, are at "interesting" technical levels of support:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2826&state=present&height=600&width=600
Most stocks - - indeed, a very large percentage of those that I follow - look like AES. That is, (a) long-term bearish pattern; (b) short term "churning", suggesting an attempt to base; (c) the potential for a set-up of an incredible short opportunity, if equities in general do push higher.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2823&state=original&height=600&width=600
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I'm not usually a person who pays a lot of attention to sentiment indicators, but those I have seen recently make a strong case for the bullish argument. Just about everyone has assumed the world is about to end. With that kind of mentality, it's easy to understand how the simplest (and, frankly, irrelevant) smidgen of news, such as the candidate of Treasury Secretary, can suddenly make the market blast 500 points higher in the span of an hour. That's not the kind of windstorm I want to be caught in with a 100% bearish portfolio.
Anyway, I can't say to you if I'm feeling really bearish or really bullish. If pressed, I guess I'd say my feeling is we'll get a final plunge in the early part of this week and, at long last, can start to push higher in a big wave 4. I hope it works out that way, because this market is absolutely dying for some kind of consistency, since it has been chewing virtually all traders to pieces lately.
Posted: 03:40 下午 | 212 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 28, 2008 - 12:20 下午Incredibly ObviousSome buys are just too screamingly obvious. Dow 30 components. Smashed to pieces. Buying.
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Posted: 12:20 下午 | 57 insightful comments | Permalink
十月 22, 2008 - 11:36 上午Alcoa Can't Wait for Tomorrow
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Posted: 11:36 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 23, 2008 - 03:26 下午The Bear is BackThis week was pivotal. Although I don't think it's going to be straight down from here, in my opinion, this week's action has brought an end to the bear market rally that spanned from mid-March until mid-May. Our national nightmare is over.
All the indexes got beaten up, but their patterns and projections all vary. Investment banks had a tough week, and this chart of the $XBD suggests the high made on May 2 was simply another "lower high" in a long progression downward.
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The NASDAQ bounced off major resistance at about 2,550 and also has cut through its 25% median line. At this point, as I mentioned in my prior post, I closed out my NDX and SPX puts for good profits. I have one index position - on the Russell 2000 - which I entered late today. But everything else is just shorts and equity puts.
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This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
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I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)
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The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
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And - - I've just got to say it - - 1383 on the S&P is broken! I have been yacking about that level for ages. It finally broke today. More importantly, the close was near the day's lows. We didn't rally. We are plainly below 1383 now.
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Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=878&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=878&state=present&height=600&width=600
.......Capital One, which is very near its supporting trendline........
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.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
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As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.
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Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
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Cerner is falling away from its major resistance at $48.75.
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Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
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And Schlumberger is also falling away from major resistance.
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So - - a great week! And quite a contrast to the last few. To close today, here's an interesting new video from Don Harrold (I own puts on ISRG, so I found this especially intriguing; plus I have this quirky fondness for the truth, so Cramer gets on my nerves too).
三月 20, 2008 - 04:12 下午Calls of the WildWhat a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.
I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.
I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.
However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.
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