I was premature to say the EUR would strengthen short-term. The fast and furious drop beneath the red line you see below simply continued. Congratulations to those short the euro! I drew a new retracement pattern this morning, and it seems to me this could keep falling until around the 1.44 level. I still do think the euro will have a robust bounce sometime soon, but at the same time, I think the long-term prospects for the US dollar are pretty bullish.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1713&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1713&state=present&height=600&width=600
The NASDAQ has been especially strong since mid-July, but as you can see with the channel drawn below, it is very close to the underside of that 25% median line. In addition, there is a large amount of overhead supply between 2475 and 2550. Interestingly, this index actually fell (albeit slightly) on an otherwise bullish day.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1714&state=original&height=600&width=600
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I've pointed out some diamond patterns recently. ANR is a very clean one, and it's pretty close to breaking down.
I've pointed out some diamond patterns recently. ANR is a very clean one, and it's pretty close to breaking down.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1715&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1715&state=present&height=600&width=600
x
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CF has broken a major trendline and completed a retracement to the horizontal line you see, so this is one of my cleanest trades right now.
CF has broken a major trendline and completed a retracement to the horizontal line you see, so this is one of my cleanest trades right now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1717&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1717&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another diamond pattern - - this one completed just one day after I mentioned it - - is Devry (DV).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1718&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1718&state=present&height=600&width=600
Battered gambling issues had a big resurgence in recent weeks, which in the context of a broader bear market for these securities simply presents another shorting opportunity. I've acquired a put position in Las Vegas Sands, and the desccending trendline dictates my stop price.
Battered gambling issues had a big resurgence in recent weeks, which in the context of a broader bear market for these securities simply presents another shorting opportunity. I've acquired a put position in Las Vegas Sands, and the desccending trendline dictates my stop price.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1719&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1719&state=present&height=600&width=600
I suggested MTL as a short when it was in the 50s, although I stupidly got out of it too soon (at a nice profit, but not nearly optimal). I think the retracement has given us a new chance, and the pathetic volume on the upswing is meaningful.
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Agriculture stocks have been great shorts lately, and a modest bounce higher has likewise presented new shorting opportunities. I hope I am not being hasty with these, but the major broken trendlines I am seeing suggest a very good trade ahead.
Agriculture stocks have been great shorts lately, and a modest bounce higher has likewise presented new shorting opportunities. I hope I am not being hasty with these, but the major broken trendlines I am seeing suggest a very good trade ahead.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1721&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1721&state=present&height=600&width=600
Options on RKH have pretty wide spreads, but I've got a decent-sized position in this with a stop at about the $112 level. The resumption of a downtrend in financials (and tech, for that matter) is a important requisite to a meaningful new swing down in the market (which the Elliott Wave folks would describe as wave 3).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1722&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1722&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here are a few favorite equity shorts right now - - CCJ's pattern is absolutely gigantic and, I think, quite potent for a huge fall.
Here are a few favorite equity shorts right now - - CCJ's pattern is absolutely gigantic and, I think, quite potent for a huge fall.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1723&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1723&state=present&height=600&width=600
CNI is in the midst of forming, simultaneously, a head and shoulders pattern and a diamond pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1724&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1724&state=present&height=600&width=600
Coca Cola (KO) has done a nice retracement to a major failure line.
Coca Cola (KO) has done a nice retracement to a major failure line.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1725&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1725&state=present&height=600&width=600
That's it for now. I'm going to spend the weekend swimming and boating with my family. I'll probably do a one-sentence "comment cleaner" post Monday morning so people don't have to load this massive set of charts each time they post a comment. Have a good weekend!
Posted: 08:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 19, 2008 - 05:08 上午Crosseyed and PainlessOh, Lawdy, Lawdy. I went to bed at 2:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, having packed for hours. I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get ready for the trip. Off the plane goes at 6 a.m. Change planes in Salt Lake City. Arrive here in Baltimore. And it's past midnight, and I'm still up, looking at charts. Gawd. (Update: Errr, I collapsed in a heap at 12:30 and got up at 6:30 to resume........sorry!)
During the aforementioned layover, I was pleased to see the Dow was down 95 when I got off the plane. Soon after, it was down 125. When I got back on the plane, it was down only 65. I had, during the layout, tightened up stops and trimmed index puts a little. But I'm glad I didn't get too aggressive with tightening stops. The action today was spastic, and I was relieved when I finally landed (after the market had closed) to see the Dow was down over 130. The chart of the $NDX below shows how, in the course of one day, the market was just all over the place. It looks like one of those contrived wall charts you see drawn as background in one-panel cartoons.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1160&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1160&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm starting to get a little cautious in my immediate-term bearishness based on the Dow approaching the rising trendline you see below, which indicates the higher lows that have been established through the course of 2008. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing this trendline broken. We're very close to it now, which could mean another bounce.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1162&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1162&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.
The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1163&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1163&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1164&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.
The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1165&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1165&state=present&height=600&width=600
Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1166&state=present&height=600&width=600
I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.
I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1167&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1167&state=present&height=600&width=600
CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1169&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1169&state=present&height=600&width=600
Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.
Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1170&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1170&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.
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I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.
I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1172&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1172&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1173&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1173&state=present&height=600&width=600
On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1174&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a fine example of a change in fortune. Take a look at ANR below; this graph ends at the beginning of 2007, and you can see what a dog this stock was. Now click on the "Present" tab. Incredibly, isn't it? About a 900% rise in less than 18 months. When will the wind be taken out of ANR's sails? I'm weary of guessing.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1175&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
Here's another nice example.........AIG. In the graph below you can see AIG broken a trendline (and it's a huge one, spanning back to when Richard Nixon was in office). The prices struggled back to the trendline, but the damage was done. Now click on the "Present" tab to see what's happened since then.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1177&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, I'm on a roll here; let's do another fun example. BORL, shown below, was clearly a fantastic winning stock. The bulls loved it, and wish good reason. You can see an "ANR-like" climb, as this company was seriously considered a threat to Microsoft's dominance in the microcomputer software field. Now click on "Present". How the mighty have fallen, eh? It's pretty sad.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1178&state=present&height=600&width=600
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
I had taken profits on AZO a little while ago, and I'm sorry that I did. The (crude) diamond pattern in this stock seems to be fulfilling, and the price breaks beneath support.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1180&state=present&height=600&width=600
One stock that was frustrating people with its slow movement was COF. This seems to be changing. COF had been, for about 7 months, bouncing between about $57 (on the high side) and a series of "higher lows" on the low side. But this trendline, shown below, was broken last month, and the damage is clearly done. Bears are finally getting their day on COF.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1181&state=present&height=600&width=600
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
In May, I pointed out what looked like a nice little H&S pattern on LNN. This pattern was never really completed, though, and there's little more dangerous than a failed pattern, so I got out at once. The stock pushed higher. On Tuesday I was toying with the idea of shorting it, but shorting based on the conjecture of a double top is often dangerous, because there's very little to keep a stock from rendering the double top moot by having simply one more good day. In any event, a short here would have played out nicely, as the stock got zapped hard. Ah, well. This is something my charts wouldn't have been very good at predicting.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1182&state=present&height=600&width=600
I will be out and about all day long, and I'll do a post tonight. I'm sorry for anyone that waited for this post last night. Have a good trading day!
Posted: 05:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 09, 2008 - 04:25 下午
The broader brokerage picture, however, is still fairly bleak. The $XBD is down 40% from its peak, but as you can see from this graph, there's still plenty of open air beneath current prices. Another 50 points off this index seems totally plausible in 2008.
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The widely-anticipated iPhone announcement came today. I mentioned a couple of times last week what old news this was, and the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" rule held true here. At one point, AAPL was down about 9 points. Even with the drop "only" at $4.03, this chart is more attractive than before.
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The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.
The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1066&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1066&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $COMPQ is a little easier for me to interpret. We've got very strong resistance at 2,550, indicated by the purple line, and a drop below 2,425 would be very bearish.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1067&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.
The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1068&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1068&state=present&height=600&width=600
The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.
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My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.
My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1070&state=original&height=600&width=600
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"Fizzler" (FSLR) had another nice drop today, reaffirming how broken its former support is.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1073&state=present&height=600&width=600
And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
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AMLN, one of my equity shorts, had a nice double-digit percentage drop today.
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And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).