五月 05, 2009 - 09:44 上午Trio of Shorts
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Posted: 09:44 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 05, 2009 - 09:05 上午Short $NDXI've shorted NQ futures at current levels with a contingent stop above the 1426.50 high; overall I currently have 76 shorts, 38 puts, and 50 longs (one of which is SKF, so that belongs in the shorts tally).
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Posted: 09:05 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 09:17 上午Retracement Complete for $CRXIt's not written in stone that the $CRX will fall from here, but I took this as a signal to take my commodity profits.
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Posted: 09:17 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 08:00 上午The Pause That RefreshesThe recent zoom higher in the likes of XME, OIH, and DBC is, I think, due for a rest. I think these will make wonderful buys in a little while. For now, I've taken my profits, and I'm actually short OIH at 97.50. I'd like to to see a nice pullback before re-entering the commodity space.
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Posted: 08:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 07:12 上午JunqueWell, the market continues to leap higher, and the biggest percentage gainers are the stocks that were born on the wrong side of the tracks; that is, the junky, penny-stocks-in-March stocks. Here are a few I'm buying now to augment my already junquey 401-K.
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Posted: 07:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 01:39 下午Broken TrendWell, at least the bulls kept their successful weeks to the single digits! The tenth week, and the spell is finally broken. Here are daily candlesticks of the /ES.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4354
If we can break this week's lows next week, I think we've got a clear path to 835. OK, off to the birthday party!
Posted: 01:39 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 10:31 上午Trend Change in SRS
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Posted: 10:31 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 08:52 上午That ERY SoundThe weakest of my positions today are actually commodities-oriented, such as DBB, XME, and DBC. Those are, in fact, my top three dollar losers today out of 185 positions. Overall, as of this writing, I am down $200. That's something like 0.0001%. Ridiculous.
Anyway, one interesting graph (which is my best dollar gainer today) is ERY, which I think has a pretty clear shot to $30.
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Posted: 08:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 08:07 上午I Palindrome I897/879 seems to be the box in which /ES is struggling to escape. Energy (OIH in particular) is surprisingly weak.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4349
Posted: 08:07 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 06:51 上午Some New Short IdeasGood morning, everyone. I got off to a late start this morning (6:25, as opposed to my preferred 5:25), but here are a few charts to consider as I try to get my act together for the day.
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Posted: 06:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 05:54 下午Two PathwaysGreetings from the southbound CalTrain. I bought my freakin' ticket 4 hours in advance this time, so, God willing, I'm not going to be incarcerated or otherwise troubled.
I know it doesn't take a stroke of brilliance to posit that the market will either be (a) Up; or (b) Down, but I'm serious about this. To explain........
Just as I was expecting today to be up, I'm expecting tomorrow to be down. It would surprise (and somewhat damage!) me if we witnessed something along these lines in the coming days and weeks:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4342
The reason this might happen is twofold: (1) we neatly bounced off the Fibonacci retracement level today, which is acting as support (2) let's face it, the bulls have a lot of momentum over the past ten weeks, and it doesn't take much for them to simply dive right in and keep buying. Up markets beget up markets.
What I think is more likely - and much healthier for the bulls and bears alike - is something more like this:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4343
Take careful note that my "down" scenario still has the market going up - - and going up quite handsomely! I have maintained for a long time that I'm not expecting the bears to wrest control back from the bulls for any sustained period until this Autumn. But I do think a "quick scare" down to the low 800s would do a couple of great things for the market: (a) give a great exit for many of these very powerful bearish positions; (b) provide a terrific re-entry point for stocks which have proved their ability to climb but needed to ease back to more sane levels.
If we can ease back, I think some of the easiest/cleanest profits to be had will be those made from riding the long side from the low 800s to the low 1100s.
This is an astonishing bumpy train, so it's kind of a miracle I've gotten this far. In any case, that's my broad view of the market. I want to say again how much I appreciate the community here, and even though it's totally out of my hands, I'm sorry the comments system (Disqus) was so troublesome today.
Posted: 05:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 11:59 上午Rapid ApproachI am switching from long to short on the /ES.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4341
Posted: 11:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 10:42 上午Some Diamond Patterns
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Posted: 10:42 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 08:25 上午Target Remains SPY @ 90http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4337
If we can manage to falter around 900 on the /ES, that will be a very big positive for the bears. On the other hand, if we keep pushing up through May 7's highs, the bulls very clearly still have control.
Please note Disqus still seems to be having troubles, so if Slope kind of "stalls" on you, it's because Disqus is failing to load. It also explains why comments are relatively light today.
Posted: 08:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 07:16 上午Failed BreakoutI offer this chart as an example of why stops are important. Here we have STV, which until today was a gorgeous long position. It had a lot going for it - - - a clean pattern, a healthy breakout, and strong volume.
But I set a stop at that horizontal line, and I am no longer in this position. The last thing you want to do is hang on to something when it has had a technical violation like this. The rationale for being an owner no longer exists.
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Also, I'm not positive, but it seems like Disqus might be acting up again. If it is, you probably already realized that.
Posted: 07:16 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 06:33 上午What About DBC?As I look at DBC, I like the steady increase in volume lately as well as its pattern. This could be a dynamite security over the coming months. My own stop on this is quite tight, however, at 21.36. If the pattern can hold together, I think a ride up to 26, which is over 20% higher from here, is quite probable.
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Posted: 06:33 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 01:17 下午Victory!It's been a long time since I've been able to write this, but today was absolutely sensational.
We are at a crucial point, however, and I would be very surprised if the market didn't recover somewhat at this point. For the /ES to push about 15 points higher from here (to around 900) would be healthy for the bears, I think.
Here's something simple I put together:
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The horizontal lines are simply the Fibonacci retracements on the /ES from 1/6/09 to 3/6/09. The /ES has been quite fond of clinging to these levels. Now that we're at one of them, I imagine it'll noodle around here or fight its way higher. I am long the /ES right now as an insurance policy, since I've got 201 other positions, almost all of them bearish.
So the best thing for the bears right now would be (a) a push up to the 895-900 area; (b) a resumption of the drop; (c) which pierces the 880 level. At that point I think we've got a clear pathway to 835.
I'm very proud of us; good job, Slopers!
Posted: 01:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 11:40 上午Very Important Test @ 880I have gone long 20 @ES at 883 with a stop below 880 as a hedge. This is a key test for the bears.
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Posted: 11:40 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 11:16 上午The Most Bullish Chart I Follow
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Posted: 11:16 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 10:15 上午FAS CrackThat's the end of the rally for FAS. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
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Posted: 10:15 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 09:08 上午Exodus 8:2Here are the various major levels of support on the S&P. I am having the best day I've had in ten weeks. Those Goldman Sachs bastards better stay away this time. I'd really appreciate it, fellas. Thanks so much.
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Posted: 09:08 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 13, 2009 - 08:01 上午Massive Top Pattern in GOOG
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Huge. Ginormous. Christine Romer big.
Posted: 08:01 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 03:36 下午Good as GoldI've mentioned my fondness for the work of Gary Savage on a number of occasions. Day by day, as I've read his work and looked at the charts, I have come to move over to the side of the gold bulls which Gary proudly inhabits.
I had a couple of reasons for being bearish on gold. One of them is that, looking at the $XAU and $HUI, it seems they are both against some formidable challenges given how far they've come and how much overhead supply there is. Here's the $XAU as an example:
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The other reason is that I do put a certain amount of stock in the folks at Elliott Wave, and they've been tooting the "gold is heading to under $700" horn for many weeks now.
But one can't really argue with gold's persistent strength. And I put that in bold, because it seems to be standing out these days with respect to being able to climb in the face of the diminishment of other assets (oil, stocks, financials). Just look at these two:
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GOLD in particular (as I tweeted a couple of days ago) has been remarkable, having reached lifetime highs the past couple of days. A challenge for me is to be able to buy anything at a new lifetime high, but I've been doing this long enough to understand that new highs often beget more new highs.
Finally, although I am a chartist to the death, I do respect Gary's macroeconomic rationale for believing in gold. It makes sense, to me, at this point in economic history.
Posted: 03:36 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 12:07 下午Buy 'n' HoldIf anyone needed living proof of the fallacy of buy & hold, General Motors -- makers of the Aztek - - provides it. Click on the "After" to see how this blue-chip stock has fared.
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Posted: 12:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 10:49 上午ANR RetracementI have bought ANR today due to the nice retracement back to its breakout level.
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Posted: 10:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 10:12 上午TYP Has a Real Purty Mouth
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Posted: 10:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 12, 2009 - 08:47 上午Bringing Good Things to LifeI reiterate what I tweeted a couple of days ago - that General Electric (GE) is a marvelous short. I accumulated the largest stock position I've ever had in my life on this sucker, and I'm pleased with it thus far. My "eventual" target price is the low single digits (about $4), but I think $11.50 to $12 is in very easy reach within days.
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