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Posted: 01:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
八月 16, 2008 - 08:29 上午From the Land of Sky Blue WaterHello from beautiful North Lake Tahoe, land of Prophet North, the fabled and enchanted woods where bears roam and bloggers muse.
The last week was pretty hum-drum. I think everyone - bulls and bears alike - is waiting for "the big break". The bulls have enjoyed a relatively robust push higher from July 15th (and in some cases, not "relatively" at all, but multi-hundred percent gains with the likes of ABK). The amount of fear out there, particularly with respect to the financials, has really come down.
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It would be more exciting to see the VIX at a nadir like in October 2007 or May 2008, but at least we're back in the teens. In spite of my portfolio being stuck in neutral for a while, if and when the "big break" does arrive, my financial goals will be done for the year. My only challenge at that point will be to basically go fully into cash and not commit a common sin among traders, which is to extrapolate recent gains out into the future. So do me a favor and remind me, if we ever do a major plunge, to basically go into cash and post funny videos for the balance of the year. It probably wouldn't profit me to trade any more until 2009 begins.
One big break we're all waiting for, of course, is the $UTIL, whose plunge will correspond to higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. We're right on the cusp. A push above the $477 zone would put this pattern into some doubt, whereas a drop beneath $458 would start the fire. This is, I say again, one of the cleanest, finest patterns I have ever witnessed as a chartist.
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I was premature to say the EUR would strengthen short-term. The fast and furious drop beneath the red line you see below simply continued. Congratulations to those short the euro! I drew a new retracement pattern this morning, and it seems to me this could keep falling until around the 1.44 level. I still do think the euro will have a robust bounce sometime soon, but at the same time, I think the long-term prospects for the US dollar are pretty bullish.
I was premature to say the EUR would strengthen short-term. The fast and furious drop beneath the red line you see below simply continued. Congratulations to those short the euro! I drew a new retracement pattern this morning, and it seems to me this could keep falling until around the 1.44 level. I still do think the euro will have a robust bounce sometime soon, but at the same time, I think the long-term prospects for the US dollar are pretty bullish.
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The NASDAQ has been especially strong since mid-July, but as you can see with the channel drawn below, it is very close to the underside of that 25% median line. In addition, there is a large amount of overhead supply between 2475 and 2550. Interestingly, this index actually fell (albeit slightly) on an otherwise bullish day.
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I've pointed out some diamond patterns recently. ANR is a very clean one, and it's pretty close to breaking down.
I've pointed out some diamond patterns recently. ANR is a very clean one, and it's pretty close to breaking down.
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x
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CF has broken a major trendline and completed a retracement to the horizontal line you see, so this is one of my cleanest trades right now.
CF has broken a major trendline and completed a retracement to the horizontal line you see, so this is one of my cleanest trades right now.
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Another diamond pattern - - this one completed just one day after I mentioned it - - is Devry (DV).
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Battered gambling issues had a big resurgence in recent weeks, which in the context of a broader bear market for these securities simply presents another shorting opportunity. I've acquired a put position in Las Vegas Sands, and the desccending trendline dictates my stop price.
Battered gambling issues had a big resurgence in recent weeks, which in the context of a broader bear market for these securities simply presents another shorting opportunity. I've acquired a put position in Las Vegas Sands, and the desccending trendline dictates my stop price.
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I suggested MTL as a short when it was in the 50s, although I stupidly got out of it too soon (at a nice profit, but not nearly optimal). I think the retracement has given us a new chance, and the pathetic volume on the upswing is meaningful.
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Agriculture stocks have been great shorts lately, and a modest bounce higher has likewise presented new shorting opportunities. I hope I am not being hasty with these, but the major broken trendlines I am seeing suggest a very good trade ahead.
Agriculture stocks have been great shorts lately, and a modest bounce higher has likewise presented new shorting opportunities. I hope I am not being hasty with these, but the major broken trendlines I am seeing suggest a very good trade ahead.
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Options on RKH have pretty wide spreads, but I've got a decent-sized position in this with a stop at about the $112 level. The resumption of a downtrend in financials (and tech, for that matter) is a important requisite to a meaningful new swing down in the market (which the Elliott Wave folks would describe as wave 3).
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Here are a few favorite equity shorts right now - - CCJ's pattern is absolutely gigantic and, I think, quite potent for a huge fall.
Here are a few favorite equity shorts right now - - CCJ's pattern is absolutely gigantic and, I think, quite potent for a huge fall.
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CNI is in the midst of forming, simultaneously, a head and shoulders pattern and a diamond pattern.
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Coca Cola (KO) has done a nice retracement to a major failure line.
Coca Cola (KO) has done a nice retracement to a major failure line.
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That's it for now. I'm going to spend the weekend swimming and boating with my family. I'll probably do a one-sentence "comment cleaner" post Monday morning so people don't have to load this massive set of charts each time they post a comment. Have a good weekend!
Posted: 08:29 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 19, 2008 - 05:08 上午Crosseyed and PainlessOh, Lawdy, Lawdy. I went to bed at 2:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, having packed for hours. I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get ready for the trip. Off the plane goes at 6 a.m. Change planes in Salt Lake City. Arrive here in Baltimore. And it's past midnight, and I'm still up, looking at charts. Gawd. (Update: Errr, I collapsed in a heap at 12:30 and got up at 6:30 to resume........sorry!)
During the aforementioned layover, I was pleased to see the Dow was down 95 when I got off the plane. Soon after, it was down 125. When I got back on the plane, it was down only 65. I had, during the layout, tightened up stops and trimmed index puts a little. But I'm glad I didn't get too aggressive with tightening stops. The action today was spastic, and I was relieved when I finally landed (after the market had closed) to see the Dow was down over 130. The chart of the $NDX below shows how, in the course of one day, the market was just all over the place. It looks like one of those contrived wall charts you see drawn as background in one-panel cartoons.
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I'm starting to get a little cautious in my immediate-term bearishness based on the Dow approaching the rising trendline you see below, which indicates the higher lows that have been established through the course of 2008. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing this trendline broken. We're very close to it now, which could mean another bounce.
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The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.
The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.
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As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.
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The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.
The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.
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Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.
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I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.
I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.
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CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.
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Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.
Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.
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I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.
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I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.