- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-5-21 08:33
|
显示全部楼层
八月 16, 2008 - 08:29 上午From the Land of Sky Blue WaterHello from beautiful North Lake Tahoe, land of Prophet North, the fabled and enchanted woods where bears roam and bloggers muse.
The last week was pretty hum-drum. I think everyone - bulls and bears alike - is waiting for "the big break". The bulls have enjoyed a relatively robust push higher from July 15th (and in some cases, not "relatively" at all, but multi-hundred percent gains with the likes of ABK). The amount of fear out there, particularly with respect to the financials, has really come down.
It would be more exciting to see the VIX at a nadir like in October 2007 or May 2008, but at least we're back in the teens. In spite of my portfolio being stuck in neutral for a while, if and when the "big break" does arrive, my financial goals will be done for the year. My only challenge at that point will be to basically go fully into cash and not commit a common sin among traders, which is to extrapolate recent gains out into the future. So do me a favor and remind me, if we ever do a major plunge, to basically go into cash and post funny videos for the balance of the year. It probably wouldn't profit me to trade any more until 2009 begins.
One big break we're all waiting for, of course, is the $UTIL, whose plunge will correspond to higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. We're right on the cusp. A push above the $477 zone would put this pattern into some doubt, whereas a drop beneath $458 would start the fire. This is, I say again, one of the cleanest, finest patterns I have ever witnessed as a chartist.
I was premature to say the EUR would strengthen short-term. The fast and furious drop beneath the red line you see below simply continued. Congratulations to those short the euro! I drew a new retracement pattern this morning, and it seems to me this could keep falling until around the 1.44 level. I still do think the euro will have a robust bounce sometime soon, but at the same time, I think the long-term prospects for the US dollar are pretty bullish. |
|
|
[复制链接]
