一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the retracement almost to the hundredth of a point. Obviously the price is noodling around this line, trying to figure out which way to make a break.

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I got a bit of flak for my AAPL puts, but I stand by this call. I have great hopes for this trade.

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We've all been watching FSLR, and today's sharp movement downward has pierced the supporting trendline. I am optimistic that I've got about $50/share more in intrinsic value to pad onto my FSLR puts.

hefeiddd

We've all been watching FSLR, and today's sharp movement downward has pierced the supporting trendline. I am optimistic that I've got about $50/share more in intrinsic value to pad onto my FSLR puts.

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Although GENZ has pierced its neckline, I'm a bit frustrated that the prices haven't moved more plainly lower. I find the strength in the face of this pretty good H&S pattern to be puzzling.

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Capital One has also been a long-time favorite stock on this blog. I had even suggested last week, given its proximity to the supporting line., that it might be a long candidate (although I simultaneously said I wouldn't buy it myself, because I was afraid the trend would break). Sure enough, it broke today. This has been a frustratingly slow-moving stock, but I can at least say that I think the likelihood of a bullish move by COF is now kaput.

hefeiddd

Capital One has also been a long-time favorite stock on this blog. I had even suggested last week, given its proximity to the supporting line., that it might be a long candidate (although I simultaneously said I wouldn't buy it myself, because I was afraid the trend would break). Sure enough, it broke today. This has been a frustratingly slow-moving stock, but I can at least say that I think the likelihood of a bullish move by COF is now kaput.

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Several nice folks thanked me for my CHTT suggestion. This H&S, unlike GENZ, is clicking along nicely. Traditional projection measurements would put the target price on this at about $48.

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Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.

hefeiddd

Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.

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I am back from my travels, so my updates should be a little more punctual for the rest of this week. Thanks, as always, for stopping by!

Posted: 07:53 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 29, 2008 - 02:38 下午Oil Helps OutCrude oil, which is on the nation's mind like never before, softened up enough today do my puts some good. I am generally short most major items related to oil, gold, and agriculture. We had similar dips in crude oil in late March and late April, both of which were followed by pushes to new lifetime highs, so I am not saying the past few days are game-changing. But at some point this bull trend will be broken.

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I mentioned yesterday that I closed out my XAU puts. That was obviously early, and it's a shame that the huge bid/ask spread was the major reason for my wanting to close them out. Oh, well. I could see this easily heading to $160 and maybe even lower.

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My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.

hefeiddd

My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.

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Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.

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Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.

hefeiddd

Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.

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CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.

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I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.

hefeiddd

I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.

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Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.

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Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.

hefeiddd

Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.

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The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.

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I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).

hefeiddd

I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).

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Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.

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I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

hefeiddd

I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

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CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.

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And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

hefeiddd

And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

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Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.

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While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!

Posted: 02:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 29, 2008 - 09:25 上午Rude CrudeOn the whole, my puts and equity shorts are doing pretty well in the face of a softening crude oil market, but my index puts are doing definitely not-so-hot. I've still got puts on the $RUT and $NDX, but I get could stopped out of those in a day or two if things remain strong. So far this morning I've been stopped out of ABT, ALB, BLK, MON, RJF, and ACL.
Here are a few of my holdings that I'm feeling pretty confident about:

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.


All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.

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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.

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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

hefeiddd

Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?

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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

hefeiddd

Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.

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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

hefeiddd

Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.

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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

hefeiddd

Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.

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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).