一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:25

One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.

As for oil - in spite of my debacle with OIH, I still have a lot of oil-related shorts. Chart-wise, there is a lot of interesting activity here. BHI has fully retraced to what I consider a face shorting zone.

And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:26

And CVX - even on a day when oil hit yet another record - is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.

My martyr complex is on full-blast right now, so I'd say the video below represents my vision of what a Slope Convention in Vegas would be like in August. A few of the dramatis personae......

Jesus H. Christ - Tim (who else?)
Mary Magdalene - Jana (understudy: Avalon)
Judas Iscariot - JakeGint
Simon Zealotes - Peachin
King Herod - Ned
Caiaphas- Abby Joseph Cohen
Pontius Pilate - Beanie

Posted: 02:44 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:28

三月 29, 2008 - 04:57 下午Weekend ReviewHappy weekend, everyone. I had a terrific trading week, and although I'm still concerned that we're between a rock and a hard place in the markets (in the middle, uncertain what is coming next), there's nothing I can do to change it, so I'm just doing the best I'm able.
The task before us is plain (again, not that we can do anything about it): push beneath the "shelf of support" ranging from 645 to 680. Do that, and it's an all-clear for the bears.

The problem is that you can look at the activity on the IWM and construct a bullish or a bearish argument out of it. One could take the past 60 days of the IWM and plausibly state that we've just done a retracement back to a cup with handle breakout, and it's ready to blast higher to new highs for 2008.

Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:29

Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).

I lightened up quite a bit on index holdings due to this uncertainty and am more weighted to sectors I think are more cleanly ripe for a fall, such as oil services.

I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:29

I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.

ACL seems to be wrapping up a nice topping pattern.

I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:30

I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.

APA is a higher risk play, due to its strength, but any weakness in oil could make for a juicy 20 point drop (and thus a huge jump in the option value).

Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:31

Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.

I haven't done anything with GENZ in years, but I've got puts on this since the pattern is mildly interesting.

Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:32

Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!

We've got a new puppy in the house, so I'd better go romp some more. See you Monday.

Posted: 04:57 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:33

三月 27, 2008 - 07:11 上午Apple ShortOK, I need to talk about something - anything - to get Hillary's face off the top of Slope. So it'll be AAPL.
I've got puts on this, and I might get some more at these levels. I like how this price has broken its major trendline, fallen hard, and now has retraced to close its gap.

Here's a closer view.

It was weird to see the headline "Worst GDP in Six Years" this morning with a gain on the Dow next to it. Oh, well. As of this writing (only about 40 minutes into the open), it looks like the SPX and NDX are down, and the Dow has whithered away to just about flat. Naturally I always worry that the bad news is already priced in!

Posted: 07:11 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
AAPL (25)

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-21 10:38 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:48

十月 13, 2008 - 11:02 上午First Set of Shorts

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 10:51

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Posted: 11:02 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ABFS (1)

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-21 11:35

十月 11, 2008 - 08:29 上午Praying for a RetracementThere won't be any need for interepretation. Here's what I believe and thus how I am positioned:

The market is going to engage in an explosive rally, shocking everyone, and taking tons of fear out of the market. My target for the S&P is somewhere in the 1075-1100 range.
The VIX will plunge back into "the new normal" of the mid-30s.
Once the rebound is done, around Halloween, it will be the bearish opportunity of a lifetime.

By stating the above, I have distinguished myself from 99.99999999% of bloggers and financial journalists by being extremely specific. The risk of this is twofold: one, looking like a complete moron if the opposite happens; and two, losing a lot of money, since I've never owned so much stock in my life. I bought many securities at the depths of Friday because - - and this may be the only time you ever read these words from my fingers - - they were cheap.
The speed of the plunge was simply breathtaking. The Russell 2000 lost 30% of its value in seven sessions.

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I don't usually keep "fervent prayer" in my playbook, but if by some miracle we were to retrace to the breakdown point of about 650, you'd see me on the street corner selling my soul to the devil in exchange for the cash I'd want to short this market. OK, OK, I've got enough cash. I can keep my soul. Suffice it to say, this would be the stuff of which bear legends were made.

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The Dow Utilities have the same beautiful pattern. My analysis of this pattern was astonishing. My trading of this pattern was astonishingly amateurish. I sold SDP at $70 and it doubled in value in a week's time.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 07:45

The Dow Utilities have the same beautiful pattern. My analysis of this pattern was astonishing. My trading of this pattern was astonishingly amateurish. I sold SDP at $70 and it doubled in value in a week's time.

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As regulars know, I made another bold move by buying a very large OIH call position Friday afternoon. At first OIH sank a little below my entry point, then it surged higher. I feel this is a solid trade, at least until $110.

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All my positions are long, and all of them are ambitious. I have not a single bearish position in any of my three accounts. Some are particularly aggressive, such as ABK, which I managed to buy at $1.34 on Friday (notice the declining volume over the past few weeks, when the price was also declining).

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 07:45

All my positions are long, and all of them are ambitious. I have not a single bearish position in any of my three accounts. Some are particularly aggressive, such as ABK, which I managed to buy at $1.34 on Friday (notice the declining volume over the past few weeks, when the price was also declining).

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MBI is a similar story.

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I bought SOHU,but this is actually a stock that looks genuinely good for the long haul - - or at least until it gets back into the $70-ish area. This is a beautiful chart, and the fact I think China is going to recover strongly too only bolsters the case.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 07:47

I bought SOHU,but this is actually a stock that looks genuinely good for the long haul - - or at least until it gets back into the $70-ish area. This is a beautiful chart, and the fact I think China is going to recover strongly too only bolsters the case.

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Not to mimic Trading Goddess, but "look at the volume!" SSO traded a few million shares a day in August. On Friday it traded over 130 million shares. I own a lot of SSO in two of my accounts.

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Besides the "retrace to the neckline" pattern, the other one I'm seeing over and over again is the one where the price has fallen far, far, far away from the major broken trendline. It's tougher to know how long to hold on to these.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 07:48

Besides the "retrace to the neckline" pattern, the other one I'm seeing over and over again is the one where the price has fallen far, far, far away from the major broken trendline. It's tougher to know how long to hold on to these.

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The past four weeks have been very good to me. If I had been a lot braver, they would have been ridiculously, obscenely, horribly "Lear Jet" good. But let's not go there :-) The traffic to the blog this week was also spectacular. I imagine it will soften up quite a bit as bear-mania starts to fade. But I've already got my fiendish plans in place for when the bulls think everything is OK again. Until then, I'm going to innocently blend into the herd and be one of them.

Posted: 08:29 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 07:48

九月 04, 2008 - 07:24 上午The Financials Will Do the RestFinancials have had a huge rebound. I think it's over, and I think their next slide is going to be just what the market needs to resume its collapse. At least I hope so. Here are some charts for you to ponder.

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