一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).

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Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.

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I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

hefeiddd

I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

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CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.

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And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

hefeiddd

And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

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Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.

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While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!

Posted: 02:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 29, 2008 - 09:25 上午Rude CrudeOn the whole, my puts and equity shorts are doing pretty well in the face of a softening crude oil market, but my index puts are doing definitely not-so-hot. I've still got puts on the $RUT and $NDX, but I get could stopped out of those in a day or two if things remain strong. So far this morning I've been stopped out of ABT, ALB, BLK, MON, RJF, and ACL.
Here are a few of my holdings that I'm feeling pretty confident about:

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.


All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.

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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.

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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

hefeiddd

Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?

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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

hefeiddd

Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.

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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

hefeiddd

Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.

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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

hefeiddd

Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.

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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).

hefeiddd

And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).

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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.

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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.

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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

hefeiddd

I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.

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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.

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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.

Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 16, 2008 - 11:22 上午(AAPL)I know this is sacrilege, but it strikes me as verrrrrry unlikely that a stock that looks like this is destined to make new highs.

Looking closer, it seems the slow stochastic and RSI are both rolling over. I can't remember the last time I had a position on AAPL, but I'm buying puts here.


Posted: 11:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午

hefeiddd

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午Yo, Godot!Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.
Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way - - the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just...........weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!


One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

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Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

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One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

hefeiddd

One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

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SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

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And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower......

hefeiddd

.....and heavyweight First Solar.........So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

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In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

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The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

hefeiddd

The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

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The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

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And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

hefeiddd

And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

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But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

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Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.