一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:18

I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.

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In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.

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I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:18

But it's important to keep such things in context!

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My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.

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With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:19

With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.

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But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.

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I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:20

I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.

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My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.

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I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:21

I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.

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The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.

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Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:22

Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........

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......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.

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Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:23

六月 06, 2008 - 08:16 上午Bottomless PitsEven though we haven't been rolling around in an honest-to-God bear market, there are some sectors that have. Bask in the glow of these train wrecks. They are a marvel, and they seem to have no bottom except for $0.00.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:24

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:25

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 08:27

六月 04, 2008 - 02:34 下午Friday LoomsThere seems to be a trend in my trading lately. The day will start off poorly. My portfolio will go deeply into the red. Then it will turn around, and it will end up nicely in the green. This has happened every day this week. It's sort of nervewracking. It's not that I'm monkeying around with my portfolio - - I'm doing hardly anything. But it seems the bulls are making a valiant effort at the start of each day, and it starts to fall away from them at some point.
The intraday chart of the S&P 500, shown below, includes everything from the mid-March nadir to the current price levels. It's pretty easy to see the head and shoulders pattern stretching over the past six weeks. This looks like a nice topping formation. But it all comes down to Friday morning's jobs report. That will provide either a

It is, however, make-or-break time for many indexes. In one day, the bulls could retake control or the bears could continue the momentum downward. Just look at the chart below: get it over 2,550, the bulls are in command; get it below 2,450, and the bears are. Simple as that.

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It's a similar story with the more narrow $NDX; we must break Wednesday's low to get seriously bearish.

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As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:09

As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.

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Some stocks seem to be incapable of finding a bottom. Just look at MBIA.

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And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:10

And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?

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Ah, yes, and First Solar. I've said repeatedly $250 is the key level. Well, this goose is cooked. I'm hanging on to this position so I can watch it grow.

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A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:11

A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.

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With energy softening, there are a lot of high fliers with plenty of room beneath this. Cimarex is a favorite of mine.

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Lastly, Valmont is at the high end of a broadening top.

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I am, by the way, on my way to my CMT. There are three examinations, and I passed the first one (I found out yesterday). I have to admit, I'm a little shocked. There were so many point & figure questions (about which I know next to nothing), I was sure I had flunked. Onward!

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:12

四月 23, 2008 - 10:30 下午Late NightIt wasn't that long ago that I'd do one blog entry a day and feel like a champ. This is my 5th posting today, and I'd feel guilty if I didn't get it done. Anyhoo.........
I see that the Chinese stock markets are exploding higher again. is that the government - which seems passionately devoted to propping up its local stock market - dropped its "trading tax" by two-thirds. That sounds like a lot, but this tax went from 3 tenths of a percent to 1 tenth of a percent. In spite of what sounds like rounding error to me, that was cause for celebration in China.

I've noticed something else as well - - "calling the bottom" has become a passionate hobby these days. It seems like convinced that the grueling (10%), extremely long (weeks and weeks) bear market is finally at an end. I offer ABK as a symbol of the danger of bottom calling. At every one of the tinted zones shown below, one could have plausibly said, "prices have stabilized and things are settling down; time to buy!" And you can see what happened each time.

A deeper example of how badly people can get it wrong sometimes is Starbucks. This company, which dropped another 10% after hours today, has been falling for months. But go to Amazon and do a search for Starbucks, and you'll see a mountain of books that tell business people how they can emulate the Starbucks way to forge their own prosperity.

I won't bother showing the OIH graph for a millionth time; it has displaced IWM as my obsession these days. I will tip my hat at the reader who turned me on to DUG, the double-inverse fund. I put my entire IRA into this item, and it's up nicely over a just a couple of days. I could see 20-25% more over the coming weeks, possibly. I've drawn a tiny red line indicating my entry point.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:13

I won't bother showing the OIH graph for a millionth time; it has displaced IWM as my obsession these days. I will tip my hat at the reader who turned me on to DUG, the double-inverse fund. I put my entire IRA into this item, and it's up nicely over a just a couple of days. I could see 20-25% more over the coming weeks, possibly. I've drawn a tiny red line indicating my entry point.

My puts in ABX and $XAU are doing nicely. Gold is really starting to take a beating. I'd consider getting out when it gets down to that purple zone. Until then, I'm holding.

I have a kitchen in serious need of cleaning, and as a Felix Unger type, duty calls. Good night, and I'll see you in the ante meridian.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-22 09:16

三月 06, 2008 - 06:49 上午Oedipus WrecksWith all the small ups and downs from day to day, it's easy to lose sight of what a devastating bear market it has been for stocks in the real estate finance arena. It just goes to show how the mighty have fallen. Breathtaking.

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