一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:30

The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.

One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.

Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:31

Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.

ACL is enticing. It's got a clean stop at around $155, and a break below that horizontal line at $128 would be sensational.

CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:32

CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.

I got back into ICE today, too (puts, naturally). The $155 stop price is a few bucks off, but I'm willing to be a little early.

As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:32

As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.

Good night, everyone. I'm exhausted......time for some rest!
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:33

三月 26, 2008 - 08:53 上午What about Gold and Oil?Well, it's hardly a rout, but 100+ points off the Dow as of this writing is a nice change. My index puts (SPX, NDX, RUT, DIA) are all doing dandy.
I had a field day over the past few weeks with oil and gold shorts, and I got out last week. I've been getting back in - - in some cases, too early - - although my interest in oil shorts is much stronger than gold shorts. I think gold as as commodity could shock everyone, heading to $2,000/ounce, so I'm not getting too freaky with the shiny stuff. I do find ABX an interesting "kiss the trendline" opportunity, so I've got a small position on those puts.

The slippery stuff, on the other hand, is getting possibly enticing again.

The IWM is pretty key at this point as for the indexes. The next Fib level to break is 69.05, and that's a ways away at this point (IWM is 69.67 as of this writing). IWM is in between Fibs at this point, so we'll just have to bide our time.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:34

三月 04, 2008 - 07:03 上午My Favorite Gold ShortI know gold is going up and up and up. $1,000/ounce gold is virtually a foregone conclusion.
In spite of this, there are some gold and mining stocks that I really like as bearish plays. One of my favorites is ABX (Barrick). It has huge volume, and its bid/ask spread is quite reasonable (particularly when compared to $XAU options, which are freakishly thinly traded).

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ABX (11)

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:35

十一月 03, 2008 - 11:31 上午CornucopiaMore short ideas..............

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:36

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Posted: 11:31 上午 | 101 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:36

八月 04, 2008 - 06:36 下午EnergizedI liked today a lot. One, my portfolio went up substantially - - over 15%. Not bad for one day. And two (and this is the part I really like), it didn't take some nutty market collapse to make it happen. The Dow fell 0.37%. Nothing!
The reason for my positions surging was that my hypothesis, which I've been pretty vocal about, is panning out. That is - - energy: down; equities: down. Not inversely related. Again - - - energy (and commodities in general, while we're on the subject): down; equities: down.
Now, just like no "up" is straight up, no "down" is straight down. Looking at the continuous crude contract (how's that for alliteration?), I'd say we're probably in for a breather when oil gets to $112 a barrel or so. People were ga-ga bullish when oil was $140 a barrel. I can only imagine some futures n00bs got their scalps handed to them already.

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The OIH has cut through its fan line, and - just eyeballing it - I'd say $170 or so is a good target. Not to say that oil and the OIH have much, much farther to fall. I'm just talking about the coming week or two.

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I sure wish $XAU options were more liquid. I'd really enjoy that market if they were. But they're not, and I avoid it..........which is unfortunate, since it's a really dynamic, technically-interesting market. The $XAU has plummeted an incredible 25% in just a few days. Here again, commodities n00bs (on the long side, at least) surely were surprised. But fortunes were made on the short side.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:37

I sure wish $XAU options were more liquid. I'd really enjoy that market if they were. But they're not, and I avoid it..........which is unfortunate, since it's a really dynamic, technically-interesting market. The $XAU has plummeted an incredible 25% in just a few days. Here again, commodities n00bs (on the long side, at least) surely were surprised. But fortunes were made on the short side.

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I have a quantity of positions that ticks a lot of Garys off (80), and yes, it's cumbersome. I took a little money off the table today, but mostly I tightened my stops. Looking at the $CRX, it seems sensible to have a bit of a bounce here, but for goodness sake, I've seen so many graphs like this lately, and sometimes they don't wait for a bounce; they simply cut through the trendline and take no prisoners.

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And, oh, yes, my good friend $UTIL. I walked into the palatial office of my network guys today, and I wrote "SDP" in huge letters on their whiteboard. There is no more "jumping the gun" here. This is a head and shoulders. It's complete. The neckline is cut. And this thing is ready to rock.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:38

And, oh, yes, my good friend $UTIL. I walked into the palatial office of my network guys today, and I wrote "SDP" in huge letters on their whiteboard. There is no more "jumping the gun" here. This is a head and shoulders. It's complete. The neckline is cut. And this thing is ready to rock.

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The Beijing Olympics (which had the inexplicable magical power to lift the Chinese stock market - - I still don't understand the logic behind that one) starts on Friday. Does this mean we can look forward to a serious plunge after the games are over? As if it hasn't plunged enough. I bought some FXP today (it's been quite a while..........).

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My puts are strictly on the $RUT, and the position isn't that huge. I might even take it off the table thanks to almost assured Fed wackiness Tuesday at 2:15 EST. As for the $NDX, I'm keeping a close eye on this one to see if it marches toward the fanline above or snaps its ways down to the line below.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:39

My puts are strictly on the $RUT, and the position isn't that huge. I might even take it off the table thanks to almost assured Fed wackiness Tuesday at 2:15 EST. As for the $NDX, I'm keeping a close eye on this one to see if it marches toward the fanline above or snaps its ways down to the line below.

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The Russell 2000 - - awww, should I even say it? - - OK, my apologies - - is in the formative stages of the mother of all patterns. There is huge debate about whether there's another push higher in the cards (S&P 1320) or if we've had that run already. Search me.

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I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:40

I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.

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CEG looks like another H&S.

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I have no position in FNM, but this stock sure doesn't look done falling. Don't you think a disaster is going to happen here? Doesn't it seem like its fate is sealed, bailout or not? Just sayin'.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:41

I have no position in FNM, but this stock sure doesn't look done falling. Don't you think a disaster is going to happen here? Doesn't it seem like its fate is sealed, bailout or not? Just sayin'.

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I sold my POT put for a huge profit today, but only because it was an August put (my only one left) and I get very jumpy owning options in the same calendar month as they expire. If this strengthens back to 200 or so, I'll jump right in again.

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SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:41

SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.

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The energy sector is stuffed with issues that have broken huge trendlines. I like RIG.

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Finally, here's another clip from Don Harrold. I feel a kinship with Don since (a) he gets really ticked off at B.S. (b) he gets paid $0.00 to reveal it to the world. Go, Don, go!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-5-25 12:42

七月 18, 2008 - 01:18 下午Last Post of the WeekI'm going to hang it up early today. It's been another great week. I'm getting ready to leave for a week-long trip with my family. I'll probably manage to do one post a day during my vacation. Until then, I leave you with these charts, which I consider an interesting fount of ideas. Thank you, and enjoy a pleasant weekend!

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