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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:07 | 显示全部楼层
The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.


One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.


Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:08 | 显示全部楼层
Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.


ACL is enticing. It's got a clean stop at around $155, and a break below that horizontal line at $128 would be sensational.


CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:09 | 显示全部楼层
CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.


I got back into ICE today, too (puts, naturally). The $155 stop price is a few bucks off, but I'm willing to be a little early.


As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:11 | 显示全部楼层
As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.



Good night, everyone. I'm exhausted......time for some rest!
Posted: 03:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:12 | 显示全部楼层
三月 29, 2008 - 04:57 下午Weekend ReviewHappy weekend, everyone. I had a terrific trading week, and although I'm still concerned that we're between a rock and a hard place in the markets (in the middle, uncertain what is coming next), there's nothing I can do to change it, so I'm just doing the best I'm able.
The task before us is plain (again, not that we can do anything about it): push beneath the "shelf of support" ranging from 645 to 680. Do that, and it's an all-clear for the bears.


The problem is that you can look at the activity on the IWM and construct a bullish or a bearish argument out of it. One could take the past 60 days of the IWM and plausibly state that we've just done a retracement back to a cup with handle breakout, and it's ready to blast higher to new highs for 2008.


Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:13 | 显示全部楼层
Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).


I lightened up quite a bit on index holdings due to this uncertainty and am more weighted to sectors I think are more cleanly ripe for a fall, such as oil services.


I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:17 | 显示全部楼层
I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.


ACL seems to be wrapping up a nice topping pattern.


I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:53 | 显示全部楼层
I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.


APA is a higher risk play, due to its strength, but any weakness in oil could make for a juicy 20 point drop (and thus a huge jump in the option value).


Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:55 | 显示全部楼层
Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.


I haven't done anything with GENZ in years, but I've got puts on this since the pattern is mildly interesting.


Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!

Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!


We've got a new puppy in the house, so I'd better go romp some more. See you Monday.

Posted: 04:57 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:56 | 显示全部楼层
三月 26, 2008 - 03:03 下午Looking BetterOK, I am a fast typist (Sure, you want a piece of me? I'll take you on!), but I am nervously eying my battery indicator since I only have a few minutes of juice left. Start the tense music!
Today was a pretty good day. Our friend the Fibonacci continued to scare the IWM away. Hold that line!

Volume continues to shrivel, though. Do you realize today's IWM volume was one THIRD of what it was back on March 14th.

All that matters to me, though, is that we continue to carve out a series of lower highs and lower highs. Given that, we can rest assured we can trade bearishly and profitably. Violate that trend, and I get grumpy.

Since I am frantically trying to get this post done before my laptop goes kaflooie, I will simply post a few of my favorite positions now, without comment. I have puts on all of these. You can tell they tend to be retracements, by and large. I hope some of you yield some good ideas from these examples!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:57 | 显示全部楼层
Since I am frantically trying to get this post done before my laptop goes kaflooie, I will simply post a few of my favorite positions now, without comment. I have puts on all of these. You can tell they tend to be retracements, by and large. I hope some of you yield some good ideas from these examples!

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:58 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:45 | 显示全部楼层





OK, I made it to the finish line! Good night!
Posted: 03:03 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
三月 19, 2008 - 06:38 下午Deja Vu Deja Vu Let me start by saying that today was the best trading day of my life.
It's insane, because two days ago (Monday), that was the best trading day of my life (until today). And then we all know what happened yesterday. Let's not go there again. I had nightmares about nuclear holocaust last night. Swear to God. I only have such nightmares when I've had a really awful day. And, yep, there they were, rewound and ready to play.
I was still really rattled this morning, but as I said, I was ready to "suit up" and get back into things.
Tonight's post is going to be short. I am so behind in everything. Even the simple pleasure of reading newspapers - - I've only read the news through Monday, for God's sake. Three days worth of the Journal and Times are staring at me. Not to mention the eight billion other things I've got to do (or want to do).
But my general theme is this............and take it as you want..........take it as a contrary signal; take it as the sign the bottom has been solidly reached; take it as a sign I'm letting today's profits go to my head. But here it is: after looking at my positions, I have never been more optimistic about the profits ahead of me. I have never been more sure that my charts are going to collapse. And I've never been more comfortable holding onto my positions so that my big gains get positive gigantic.
There, I said it. History will make me a fool or a hero (to myself, anyway). We'll see.
So here's a smattering of charts. Just a few favorites. It'll be interesting to come back to this post in the weeks and months ahead and click on the Original/Present tab to see what happened after today.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:47 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:48 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:49 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:50 | 显示全部楼层
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As for the title of today's post - I simply think it's funny that last week, we went down (Monday), Up HUGE (Tuesday), and then down (Wednesday). This week is a virtual carbon copy.
I've gotta go clean the kitchen. Honest. Good night.

Posted: 06:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
二月 23, 2009 - 12:42 下午Favorite Shorts - Set 4 of 5
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