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发表于 2009-5-27 07:16
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18 五月 '09 - 24 五月 '09 (43)
Weekly Archive for 18 May 2009 - 24 May 2009
五月 24, 2009 - 07:23 上午Here in my CARHappy Memorial Day weekend, everyone. I've got a house to clean up after a big get-together we had on Saturday, so I'll make this brief. Look at this chart of CAR, which is Avis, the big auto rental firm:
Now, I did all right with my "lottery picks" from mid-March until now. I made 100% in some cases, and nearly 200% here and there. I certainly didn't capture all - or even most - of the rise, but in the account where I allowed myself these battered picks, I did pretty well.
I pick CAR as an example of why I think the easy money has been made in lottery-land. This stock had gone from about thirty dollars to thirty cents in the course of eighteen months, but from March 3rd to May 20, it went up well over 1,000%. I did not participate in this move, but it stands out as one of the more extraordinary lottery stocks I pick.
Over the course of the bear market, we've seen a number of these sweeps upward on battered issues, although this one is by far the most dramatic. But the cold fact of the matter is that (a) there was a reason the stock lost 99% in the first place; (b) 1000%+ moves are not sustainable; (c) the amount of overhead supply at these levels is staggering.
But here's the more important point of all - - -the nature of percentages can wreak havoc on a portfolio at levels like this. If you bought in at 40 cents, you're sitting pretty, and you could be greedy and see if this thing manages to get to five, six, or seven bucks. But a person who bought on, say, Wednesday, is already looking at a 20% loss, because there is hardly anything holding prices up after such a swift mood.
Bottom line for me is that I'm less and less inclined to add lottery picks, and I'll be making my stops on the ones I do have increasing unforgiving.
Posted: 07:23 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 23, 2009 - 07:18 上午Saturday SermonAs a full-time fashion model, homemaker, and blogger, I sometimes also feel a bit like a preacher (most likely a Methodist one) who has to struggle for a new topic each Sunday. Although my Sunday happens several times a day, since I blog pretty frequently.
Fortunately the markets usually give me something to talk about, but I pondered a bit this morning what thought I could share. I was going to use my toe as a launching-off point for a discussion about being careful in life, but I think if I talk about my little injury any more, someone is going to show up at my office and give me a more serious injury.
So instead I'd like to direct your attention to this cute little chart I just put together. I like it a lot:
Here are the four elements:
- The tinted blue area is the S&P 500 from October through early January; as you can see, it was bouncing around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher
- The tinted green area is also the S&P 500, but from early January through the present; it bounced around a while, fell hard, and then quickly moved higher (hmmmm!)
- The red rounded rectangles both represent points where the index seems like it should have launched off the basing action and moved much higher; in each case, it didn't
- The blue rounded rectangles represent the areas where the basing pattern initially but, having failed it later, marked the starting point of a serious decline (I can only say that of the left blue rectangle, as the right one hasn't been violated to the downside yet).
You probably see what I'm driving at here: if we can snap below 878, we could be in for some serious downside. And that would do wonders to brighten my disposition. Let us pray.
Posted: 07:18 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink |
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