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MACD俱乐部»论坛 › ◇ 技术分析区 ◇ › 〖期货技术交流〗 › 一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手
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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
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Happy Easter, everyone..............I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!

Posted: 04:12 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:47 | 显示全部楼层
二月 22, 2008 - 06:18 下午My Favorites Right NowWelcome to the first public sneak peek of the Slope of Hope on its new platform. Although there are bound to be plenty of rough edges, I look forward to your feedback.

Besides the goodies located on the right column, one of the nice features about this new blog system is the ability to see 'before' and 'after' charts. That way, when you look at older blog entries, you can see how charts have done since the original posting.
For instance, let's say I was writing positively about Mosaic (MOS). The chart would look like it does below as of the writing. But if, much later, you were looking at it, you could click on Present to see how it looks with all the up-to-date prices, and since this was a bullish idea, the area shaded in green would indicate what the chart looked like when I first wrote about it. Try it!


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By the same token, a bearish suggestion (such as NutriSystem, symbol NTRI) made last year would look like the chart below, but now that several months have gone by, clicking the Present tab would update that chart and show the original area in pink.


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The remainder of the charts are some of my current favorite shorts. Clicking the Present button won't really make any difference (unless you are reading this well past February 2008!) since these are new or at least very recent ideas. So here we go.......
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:48 | 显示全部楼层
Akamai (AKAM) did a nice break and retracement already, and there are actually two horizontal lines at play here. I've got a nice tight stop on this one, and a break beneath that lower horizontal line would be sensational.


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Readers already know of my love for ATI. This has pushed up against its former support (now resistance) level, represented by the horizontal line. This is probably one of my favorite patterns right now.


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Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:49 | 显示全部楼层
Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.


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Genco (GNK) is, like DRYS, also somewhat speculative, but there's a lot of potential "juice" in these puts, because intrinsic value gains or 10, 20, or 30 points are possible.


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A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:49 | 显示全部楼层
A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.


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I've been very bearish on the Dow Transports, but I haven't found a good way to short the index itself. Ryder Systems is a play based on my bearishness there.


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Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:50 | 显示全部楼层
Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.


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I've got a lot of energy puts. Apache (APA) is one of my favorites based on its high price and clean stop.


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Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:55 | 显示全部楼层
Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.


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Lastly, Canadian Natural (CFQ) has broken a major trendline and may be finishing up a complex head and shoulders pattern.


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My main purpose in this entry is for you to get a sneak peek of the new blog. Please add something to the Comments section with any feedback, and if you feel particularly strongly about something, drop me an email. Thanks for taking the time to stop by!

Posted: 06:18 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:56 | 显示全部楼层
四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two Cities
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 15:56 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-25 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 08:28 | 显示全部楼层
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I mentioned oil - - the OIH is stark, raving mad. I don't tend to use "rubber trendlines", but I've had to with this one. That upper bound keeps getting pushed higher. And it's at the tippy-top of its Bollinger Band.

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I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:05 | 显示全部楼层
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That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!

Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-26 09:06 | 显示全部楼层
四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.

The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.


The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.
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