一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).

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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.

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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.

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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

hefeiddd

I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.

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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.

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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.

Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 16, 2008 - 11:22 上午(AAPL)I know this is sacrilege, but it strikes me as verrrrrry unlikely that a stock that looks like this is destined to make new highs.

Looking closer, it seems the slow stochastic and RSI are both rolling over. I can't remember the last time I had a position on AAPL, but I'm buying puts here.


Posted: 11:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午

hefeiddd

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午Yo, Godot!Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.
Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way - - the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just...........weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!


One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

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Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

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One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

hefeiddd

One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

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SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

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And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower......

hefeiddd

.....and heavyweight First Solar.........So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

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In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

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The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

hefeiddd

The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

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The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

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And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

hefeiddd

And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

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But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

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Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

hefeiddd

Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

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And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

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Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman......

hefeiddd

.........Goldman........

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.........JP Morgan..........

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.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........

hefeiddd

.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........

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It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!

Posted: 05:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 22, 2008 - 02:17 下午Semi-SatisfiedToday was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'm  not complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.

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The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 - - a thousand points is a lot to chop through.

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I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.

hefeiddd

I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.

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The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.

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I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.

hefeiddd

I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.

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I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.

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There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....

hefeiddd

There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF....

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.......and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.

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I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.

hefeiddd

I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.

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I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.

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AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.

hefeiddd

AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.

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I like my BHI puts a lot, not only due to the Bollinger Bands, but also due to that trendline retracement.

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XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!

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If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.

hefeiddd

If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.

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First Solar (FSLR) is above $300, but I'm staying away. Its pattern is still plausibly bullish. Its cousin, though, SPWR, looks far more vulnerable.

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Finally, my holding with GENZ did pretty well today. This pattern continues to shape up.

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I will be traveling on business over the next 30 hours from this writing, so posts will be less frequent (and comments near non-existent). Be strong!

Posted: 02:17 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 21, 2008 - 02:44 下午OIH=Oh, I HopedForgive me, readers, for I have sinned.
In my  the very first one I state - which I consider the most important - is to never lack a stop price. I had a position on OIH. I had a stop at $195. And as it, to my amazement, approached that level, I simply cancelled the stop.
That was really, really dumb. My "three rules" were crafted over many years of hard experience. I say "no exceptions" for a reason. Telling myself I'd ride out the tide and see how it goes was the kind of mistake an amateur makes.
Well, you know how this story ends. OIH kept grinding higher and higher, and once it reached $208, I couldn't take the pain anymore, so I sold my puts at a far greater loss than if I had simply let the stop do its work.

Now, at this point, there is a possibility OIH could temporarily top out and weaken. But - - again - - simply hanging onto a position and hoping for the best is idiocy. Shame on me.
OK, enough self-flagellation for the moment. The market continues to be far stronger than I'd like to see. Yeah, the Dow fell a little today, but I still think we're in "retracement-land". I am watching, for example, the $MSH. I am OK with it so long as it stays beneath that horizontal line.


One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.