五月 08, 2009 - 10:23 上午NZD/USDOK, I've got time for one last post before the market closes. NZD/USD bears close watching. I have found this to be a very interesting way to look for extremes in US equities, and it's really pushing the envelope right now.
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Posted: 10:23 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 08, 2009 - 09:32 上午More Green ShootsWith the market up in the triple digits (and why not? our banks are healthy!) I figured I would be getting mauled. But as I kept glancing at the sum total of my portfolio, I was down, but not by that much.
How come? At first I thought all the stupid stocks in my IRA were saving the day, but they really weren't up that much. Then I looked at my options screen (I have 43 put options) and expected to see a solid wall of red. Instead, there actually was a fair bit of green, and a few of them were doing pretty well on a day like this.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4288
To any of us, the most important "indicator" is our own bottom line. It looks like, even today, some of the more bearish patterns are actually still managing to act that way. Like one of my oft-mentioned favorites.
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Anyway, I really have to study, so I probably won't be doing another post until a one-sentence comment cleaner after the close. Thanks for understanding.
Posted: 09:32 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 08, 2009 - 07:55 上午Junk Worth KeepingI have 28 long positions in my IRA, and although I view most of them with deep skepticism, there are a handful I actually consider "keepers." Here they are:
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Posted: 07:55 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 08, 2009 - 06:26 上午Series 65Well, the event in my life which will impact Slope today (it's not a body part) is the Series 65 examination. I'm taking it shortly after the close.
I've been studying for it withabsolutely dreadful book. The author seems to think he's terribly funny (in a knee-slapping, yuk-yuk kind of way), and I can't imagine any style more grating or distracting for a subject like this. Strangely, it's just about the only book on the topic. My dislike for the author's style was amplified by the fact that he suggests technical analysts are "fools." If somehow I manage to pass this test, I'm recycling this bad boy, pronto.
So the bottom line is that I'm going to disappear after the close for a long time; it won't matter quite as much, since you good people aren't quite the chatty Cathys you are on non-Fridays. But you've been warned.
As for the week as a whole, it looks like most indexes are going to put a 9th nail into their hoped-for bearish coffin. The $NDX might well be the exception.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4281
The constitution of my portfolio (except for, sigh, the heroic and increasingly-irksome IRA) is tilted quite bearish, but the size of the portfolio is very muted. I don't have any honkin' big positions. The last nine weeks have taught me to really keep the risk tame, and until we've got an honest-to-God break (not a "gee this looks like it could break"), I'll continue to stay mild instead of wild.
Posted: 06:26 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 07, 2009 - 05:32 下午Green ShouldasFirst, I know that none of you could care less about all of you are terribly interested to hear about my little toe. Why wouldn't you be? Today's procedure did no good at all. The bones are still in the wrong place. So that means..........surgery! Yay! I've never had an incision in my life, and now this. My little toe is taking over my entire freakin' existence. I hate it.
And, yes, your life is affected too! Because some day soon, I am going to lose an entire day to surgery. That means I lose an entire day of trading, which is horrible (our "dancer" post earlier today notwithstanding). And it means you don't get any posts that day. And this isn't going to be one of those "I'll be on vacation so you won't get many posts", and I'm still at it every 90 minutes. I will be under sedation. I'll probably do something clever like schedule a bunch of comment cleaners that auto-deploy at certain times. So I'll be blogging while under sedation. Wow; that actually sounds pretty cool, now that I think of it.
The long-awaited fictitious nonsense from the government was spewed out after the close today, and, in true anti-climactic fashion, it doesn't seem like anyone cares. The /NQ (which I'm following much more closely these days) is up 0.75. Three-quarters of a single point. Whoop-de-freakin' do. So at least we don't have this sword hanging over our heads anymore. The jobs number in the morning will be the next mover.
Now, over the course of the last grueling, horrible 9 weeks of hell, there has been plenty of disappointment. Here are just a few examples of the "shoulda's" that got away..........
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(a) We shoulda gone done since we broken a very clean trendline and a really good head and shoulders pattern was formed;
(b) We shoulda plunged from here since ending diagonal was fully retraced (thanks, EWT guys!);
(c) We shoulda fallen from here since we were at a major Fibonacci level and had, yet again, come alongside the underbelly of the broken trendline;
(d) We shoulda fallen here for roughly the same reasons as (c);
One eventuallythrows his arms up and stops trying to figure out what's next. It's too frustrating and expensive.
The climb higher hasn't been clean, but it has been merciless. A nearly 40% rise in 9 weeks for a lumbering index like the S&P is bad enough, but there are hundreds and hundreds of stocks which have gone up hundreds and hundreds of percent in the same short span of time. I notice my detested superhero IRA portfolio has a bunch of double-digit gainers in the after-hours tonight again (such as KEY, which is actually a very interesting little chart).
Glancing over at my honkin' big Apple monitor, I see the /ES has bumped up to an 8 point gain. The real question will be what Friday holds. We haven't had two black candles on the S&P in an entire month! So today's 100-point tumble on the Dow might be just another in a series of one-hit wonders or, God forbid, a true inflection point for something more meaningful.
If you're bearish and are desperate for something to cling to, here's a chart of the $NDX you might like. It combines two very interesting things: (a) a very big down-candle which(b) on very impressive volume. Indeed, it was over double the volume on the QQQQ compared to last Friday.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4280
My toe and I shall now take our leave. Be careful. And don't run into any doors. Only a real moron would do something like that.
Posted: 05:32 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 07, 2009 - 11:30 上午TBT=This Beautiful Thing
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I think the smart money knows that the United States Government is eventually going to fail. Not "have trouble." Not "go through a rough patch." But, ultimately, default. They will not be able to print their way out of this mess. Particularly with - - what was the figure again? - - $53 trillion in "entitlements" debt. Although that figure is probably much higher by now. Anyway, this is a long that every bear can love.
Posted: 11:30 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 07, 2009 - 10:54 上午BACNo, it's not Bank of America. That stands for Big Ass Candle. Exhibited by our buddy OIH:
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Posted: 10:54 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 07, 2009 - 07:28 上午.....and the horse they rode in on.http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4273
Posted: 07:28 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 07, 2009 - 06:14 上午Peachy-KeenThe mood out there is really getting to be something.
People with whom I speak - - -even really serious, doom 'n' gloomer types - - - are starting to have real doubts that the market will ever weaken in a meaningful way again. The tone in the comments section has become giddy (for the bulls; welcome back, Beanie!) and scary for the bears (I don't think I've ever seen the word "suicidal" used until last night). And TBTSNM's comment section has been pushed into an entirely different dimension, with physical threats and racism being hurled around. It's really ugly.
In early March, the cries from the bulls were the same: when is this going to end?!?!? Well, the shoe's really on the other foot, now. I think hardly anyone, even the most enthusiastic of bulls, expected the rally to come this far, this fast, with no pause. Even as I type this, before the opening bell, the /ES shook off the deficit that I saw when I went to bed to be sporting a handsome rise, and many of my stupid IRA stocks are showing pre-market gains in the low double-digits. More and more, that IRA junk has become my canary in the coal mine.
The folks over at Elliott Wave International do a good job tracking sentiment, and this graph (used with permission) caught my eye:
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Notice how the percentage of bulls went from 2%, a never-seen-before-low, to 80%, in just a couple of months.
They believe - - and I agree - - that until sentiment gets into the nosebleed area of the 90s, this rally still has room to run. In the meantime, the bulls are going to keep running the show.
Posted: 06:14 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 06, 2009 - 07:45 下午FAS, FAZ, and their ChartsBetween FAZ and FAS by themselves (which didn't even exist half a year ago), nearly 900 million shares changed hands today. 900 million! Forgive my bluntness, but I'm starting to think that going long FAZ, like buying lottery tickets, is a tax on stupidity. Or at least one of the most efficient wealth transfer mechanisms ever created.
What's apparent to me (a skosh too late) is what a superbly "technical" pattern FAS (its profitable brother) has laid out. Indeed, although a lot of people completely dismiss the ideal of using technical analysis on "ultra" ETFs, it holds up remarkably well in some cases. Just look at this:
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There are all kinds of cool things going on:
[*]The very clean downward channel;[*]The upside break of that channel around $5, which was a great buy signal;[*]The steadily ascending volume which led to the breakout;[*]The ascending right triangle, completed today, showing a pronounced breakoutI cringe to say it, but if this were a "normal" stock, it would be a pretty obvious buy. It's hard to fathom that a triple-bullish ETF based on financials would be a buy at this point, but it's a really sweet chart.
FAZ, on the other hand, is a complete catastrophe:
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Over the past couple of months, this has been good for nothing except losing money. Can you believe this was a $200 security at one point? The volume today - a new record - was made as another 20% was hacked off this pathetic pile of garbage. Billions of dollars have been moved out of some pockets and inserted into others.
This countertrend rally has been a huge, huge grind. The NASDAQ is the only index showing any signs of weariness. I truly thought we'd see a move up to 850, and then a retracement to 750, and then a push to 1050 on the S&P.
As it is now, there hasn't been any meaningful interruption, so the retracement to 750 seems like a distant memory. I do think we will still get a meaningful retracement at some point before we make the final countertrend peak, but I'm starting to think that the peak - - based on the strength of this rally - - might not be 1050 after all, but something even loftier, like 1200. It is difficult to ignore the power and viciousness of this rally.
With bullish sentiment having moved from 2% to 80% in the span of two months (just look at the New York Times to read all the flowery stories about how great everything is now), I don't think we're going to keep going straight up. But I'm the first one to admit that getting this far without a single pause has left me shocked and more than a little disappointed.
Posted: 07:45 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 06, 2009 - 09:12 上午Natural ResourcesOne of the few items I bought yesterday was ANR, because a lot of these commodity-related stocks have wonderful patterns. It's having a good day. Take note also of the beautiful diamond pattern that preceded its tumble last year.
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I'm still hard at work on my zany project. You're going to love it. Promise.
Posted: 09:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 05, 2009 - 10:34 上午Largest Position is TBTI entered two new large positions in TBT, making it my largest commitment.
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Posted: 10:34 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 05, 2009 - 09:44 上午Trio of Shorts
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Posted: 09:44 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 05, 2009 - 09:05 上午Short $NDXI've shorted NQ futures at current levels with a contingent stop above the 1426.50 high; overall I currently have 76 shorts, 38 puts, and 50 longs (one of which is SKF, so that belongs in the shorts tally).
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Posted: 09:05 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 09:17 上午Retracement Complete for $CRXIt's not written in stone that the $CRX will fall from here, but I took this as a signal to take my commodity profits.
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Posted: 09:17 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 08:00 上午The Pause That RefreshesThe recent zoom higher in the likes of XME, OIH, and DBC is, I think, due for a rest. I think these will make wonderful buys in a little while. For now, I've taken my profits, and I'm actually short OIH at 97.50. I'd like to to see a nice pullback before re-entering the commodity space.
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Posted: 08:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 04, 2009 - 07:12 上午JunqueWell, the market continues to leap higher, and the biggest percentage gainers are the stocks that were born on the wrong side of the tracks; that is, the junky, penny-stocks-in-March stocks. Here are a few I'm buying now to augment my already junquey 401-K.
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Posted: 07:12 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 01:39 下午Broken TrendWell, at least the bulls kept their successful weeks to the single digits! The tenth week, and the spell is finally broken. Here are daily candlesticks of the /ES.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4354
If we can break this week's lows next week, I think we've got a clear path to 835. OK, off to the birthday party!
Posted: 01:39 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 10:31 上午Trend Change in SRS
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Posted: 10:31 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 08:52 上午That ERY SoundThe weakest of my positions today are actually commodities-oriented, such as DBB, XME, and DBC. Those are, in fact, my top three dollar losers today out of 185 positions. Overall, as of this writing, I am down $200. That's something like 0.0001%. Ridiculous.
Anyway, one interesting graph (which is my best dollar gainer today) is ERY, which I think has a pretty clear shot to $30.
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Posted: 08:52 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 08:07 上午I Palindrome I897/879 seems to be the box in which /ES is struggling to escape. Energy (OIH in particular) is surprisingly weak.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4349
Posted: 08:07 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 15, 2009 - 06:51 上午Some New Short IdeasGood morning, everyone. I got off to a late start this morning (6:25, as opposed to my preferred 5:25), but here are a few charts to consider as I try to get my act together for the day.
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Posted: 06:51 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 05:54 下午Two PathwaysGreetings from the southbound CalTrain. I bought my freakin' ticket 4 hours in advance this time, so, God willing, I'm not going to be incarcerated or otherwise troubled.
I know it doesn't take a stroke of brilliance to posit that the market will either be (a) Up; or (b) Down, but I'm serious about this. To explain........
Just as I was expecting today to be up, I'm expecting tomorrow to be down. It would surprise (and somewhat damage!) me if we witnessed something along these lines in the coming days and weeks:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4342
The reason this might happen is twofold: (1) we neatly bounced off the Fibonacci retracement level today, which is acting as support (2) let's face it, the bulls have a lot of momentum over the past ten weeks, and it doesn't take much for them to simply dive right in and keep buying. Up markets beget up markets.
What I think is more likely - and much healthier for the bulls and bears alike - is something more like this:
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4343
Take careful note that my "down" scenario still has the market going up - - and going up quite handsomely! I have maintained for a long time that I'm not expecting the bears to wrest control back from the bulls for any sustained period until this Autumn. But I do think a "quick scare" down to the low 800s would do a couple of great things for the market: (a) give a great exit for many of these very powerful bearish positions; (b) provide a terrific re-entry point for stocks which have proved their ability to climb but needed to ease back to more sane levels.
If we can ease back, I think some of the easiest/cleanest profits to be had will be those made from riding the long side from the low 800s to the low 1100s.
This is an astonishing bumpy train, so it's kind of a miracle I've gotten this far. In any case, that's my broad view of the market. I want to say again how much I appreciate the community here, and even though it's totally out of my hands, I'm sorry the comments system (Disqus) was so troublesome today.
Posted: 05:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 14, 2009 - 11:59 上午Rapid ApproachI am switching from long to short on the /ES.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=4341
Posted: 11:59 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink