I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=924&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=924&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=925&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=925&state=present&height=600&width=600
I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=926&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=926&state=present&height=600&width=600
CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=927&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=927&state=present&height=600&width=600
And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=928&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=928&state=present&height=600&width=600
Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=930&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=930&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=931&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=931&state=present&height=600&width=600
While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!
Posted: 02:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 29, 2008 - 09:25 上午Rude CrudeOn the whole, my puts and equity shorts are doing pretty well in the face of a softening crude oil market, but my index puts are doing definitely not-so-hot. I've still got puts on the $RUT and $NDX, but I get could stopped out of those in a day or two if things remain strong. So far this morning I've been stopped out of ABT, ALB, BLK, MON, RJF, and ACL.
Here are a few of my holdings that I'm feeling pretty confident about:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=907&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=907&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=908&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=908&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=909&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=909&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=910&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=910&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=911&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=911&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=913&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=913&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 09:25 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=811&state=present&height=600&width=600
This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=812&state=present&height=600&width=600
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=814&state=present&height=600&width=600
Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=816&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=816&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=817&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=817&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=818&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=818&state=present&height=600&width=600
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=819&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=819&state=present&height=600&width=600
Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=820&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=820&state=present&height=600&width=600
Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=821&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=821&state=present&height=600&width=600
Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=822&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=822&state=present&height=600&width=600
And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=823&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=823&state=present&height=600&width=600
CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=824&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=824&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=825&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=825&state=present&height=600&width=600
Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=826&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=826&state=present&height=600&width=600
I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=827&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=827&state=present&height=600&width=600
Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=828&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=828&state=present&height=600&width=600
Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=829&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=829&state=present&height=600&width=600
Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.
Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 16, 2008 - 11:22 上午(AAPL)I know this is sacrilege, but it strikes me as verrrrrry unlikely that a stock that looks like this is destined to make new highs.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=793
Looking closer, it seems the slow stochastic and RSI are both rolling over. I can't remember the last time I had a position on AAPL, but I'm buying puts here.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=794
Posted: 11:22 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午
四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午Yo, Godot!Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.
Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way - - the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just...........weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=653
One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.
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Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=633&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=633&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.
One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=644&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=644&state=present&height=600&width=600
SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=641&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=641&state=present&height=600&width=600
And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower......
.....and heavyweight First Solar.........So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=647&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=647&state=present&height=600&width=600
In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=634&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=634&state=present&height=600&width=600
The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.
The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=639&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=639&state=present&height=600&width=600
The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=638&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=638&state=present&height=600&width=600
And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.
And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=636&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=636&state=present&height=600&width=600
But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=635&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=635&state=present&height=600&width=600
Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.