八月 29, 2008 - 08:56 上午Chats MortsAnd the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls and tenement halls and whispered in the sounds of silence.
To me, nothing is more representative of the low quality of the recent rally than the kinds of stocks which have been rising the most. Just look at this detritus:
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To be blunt, I think the people piling into such issues are fools. They may have not looked foolish through yesterday, but I think the entire bounce higher is simply a pause in a much bigger trend.
As for today, it's nice to get some relief. As of this writing, the Dow is down triple digits. If it holds, we're going to wind up with another complete waste-of-time of a week, since the lurching up and down merely continues. Regardless, as we bid August farewell, we can look forward to September, which has the distinction of being the only consistently "down" month in the year.
I'll see you after the close.
Posted: 08:56 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 10, 2008 - 08:42 上午Little Shop of HorrorsI read that a commentator on CNBC uttered the most idiotic of notions a couple of days ago: "It's not a loss until you sell." Try telling that to the holders of any of the firms below. And, believe me, this is just a very small sampling.
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Posted: 08:42 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 08, 2008 - 04:10 下午Slope OperaMy "theme" has been repeated so often, it risks getting tiresome, but I'll say it again: energy shorts and agriculture shorts (with index option day-trades thrown in for good measure in either direction). It has served me well recently.
Even though yesterday showed the potential for "The Bounce", it sputtered very quickly. Today, however, a push higher held, and in some cases, the push was quite substantial. The Dow's 152 point rise was actually one of the tamer ones:
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Since we're in a bear market, I really, really like rallies, because they give me new opportunities. The giant question, as always, is this: does the rally represent a one-day wonder, or is this simply the start of a very substantial countertrend, like we saw in mid-March through mid-May? I don't know. The IWM, shown below, doesn't hit really serious resistance until around $71.
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I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
I was excited this morning to see how quickly oil-related issues were plunging. Today's hammer pattern implies we're going to have a bit of a bounce short-term, but I think that for at least the medium-term, the high prices in crude were marked a few days ago.
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In my IRA account, a couple of days ago, I went very bullish, putting all my cash into QLD, DDM, DUG, UYG, and UWM. Yesterday, July 7th, DUG's strength compensated for the weakness in the other four positions. Today, however, all five positions were up handsomely, particularly UYG, which benefited from the bounce I've been expecting from the world of investment banks.
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I was amused to see a headling that AMBAC had "surged over 50%" today. Yes, that's very true.
But it's important to keep such things in context!
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My puts on the $XAU had a decent day, but I am looking for much, much lower price levels from here.
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With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.
With such a strong day for the bulls, it was particularly heartening to see one of my favorite put positions (and one of my largest ones) take it a bit on the chin. Clearly a break below last week's lows would spell great things for this position.
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But even more favorite than that is the chart I keep foisting on you - ICE. It went up today some, but that's OK with me. This pattern is uber-powerful.
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I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.
I bought some IBM puts today, although I've got fairly tight stops on it. It really depends on if this rally has legs or not.
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My short on RJF was already in place, but it's pretty clear to me from this chart that, in spite of a 11% lift in the price of the stock, the general direction is going to be down.
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I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.
I was going to buy a bunch of BAC and COF stock this morning, but I didn't have time. Ah, well. It's no surprise to see such a battered issue have a spring higher. This is the largest rise BAC has seen in months.
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The overinflation of OIH has definitely been let out to some degree. Looking at these fan lines, noodling around in the 200-210 range seems most likely.
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Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
Here are a couple of short ideas. MTL.........
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......and STT, which seems to be retracting back toward its broken trendline.
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Tomorrow is also going to be busy for me. ThinkOrSwim users, please note I will be doing the "chat" session at 2 p.m. PST, 4 p.m. CST, 5 p.m. EST, so please join me there. I have no idea what I'll talk about, but I'm sure I'll think of something good by then!
Posted: 04:10 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
六月 06, 2008 - 08:16 上午Bottomless PitsEven though we haven't been rolling around in an honest-to-God bear market, there are some sectors that have. Bask in the glow of these train wrecks. They are a marvel, and they seem to have no bottom except for $0.00.
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六月 04, 2008 - 02:34 下午Friday LoomsThere seems to be a trend in my trading lately. The day will start off poorly. My portfolio will go deeply into the red. Then it will turn around, and it will end up nicely in the green. This has happened every day this week. It's sort of nervewracking. It's not that I'm monkeying around with my portfolio - - I'm doing hardly anything. But it seems the bulls are making a valiant effort at the start of each day, and it starts to fall away from them at some point.
The intraday chart of the S&P 500, shown below, includes everything from the mid-March nadir to the current price levels. It's pretty easy to see the head and shoulders pattern stretching over the past six weeks. This looks like a nice topping formation. But it all comes down to Friday morning's jobs report. That will provide either a
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It is, however, make-or-break time for many indexes. In one day, the bulls could retake control or the bears could continue the momentum downward. Just look at the chart below: get it over 2,550, the bulls are in command; get it below 2,450, and the bears are. Simple as that.
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It's a similar story with the more narrow $NDX; we must break Wednesday's low to get seriously bearish.
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As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.
As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.
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Some stocks seem to be incapable of finding a bottom. Just look at MBIA.
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And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?