And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).
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Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.
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One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
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And, finally, one specific real estate short is LRY.
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After Friday's fireworks, today was a snoozer. Oh, well! Not every day can be 400 points off the Dow, can it? Good night!
Posted: 04:25 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 05, 2008 - 02:59 下午The Indefatigable ConsumerI'm starting to worry that this economy is mysteriously stronger - - either through truthful data or otherwise - - than we had suspected. In spite of a host of unprecedented challenges, including a collapsing housing market and exploding energy costs, the U.S. consumer still seems fully committed to keep using debt to buy stuff. And buying stuff is what makes this country tick. And for all that, it was an awful day for the bears, with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points.
The tidy gains made over the prior three days were wiped out in one session. What bothers me isn't they forsaken profits - - it's the wasted time. It takes a lot of time to analyze charts, do good analysis, execute trades, and set responsible stops. That time is well spent when it yields profits. But in a see-saw market when paper profits get nuked by a single strong day, the only gain to be had is exasperation.
One could, I suppose, avoid such frustration by piling into any of the momentum stocks that are trading, such as the one below. I just don't have the personality to do it, just like I didn't have the personality in 1999 to pile into Internet stocks. I'm too scared of when the music is going to stop playing. Shame on me for being that way, but it's just how I'm put together. The stock below, for all I know, could go up ten-fold from here. But a chart like this simply makes me nervous.
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Besides strong retail sales, another thing pushing up the market (particularly with oil and commodity issues) was the resumption of the dollar's fall and oil's rise. Crude oil futures pushed nearly 5% higher today alone.
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Another disturbingly bullish sign is the $XBD. I had mentioned a few days ago the nascent series of higher highs and higher lows had been eliminated. I'm embarrassed to say this was incorrect due to a data error from our price feed. This error has been corrected, and as you can see, the setup for a reversal in this index is still very much intact.
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Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
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Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.
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Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
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An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.
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The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
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My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.
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The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away
The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.
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Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.
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AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
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ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
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CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
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Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.
Posted: 02:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
六月 02, 2008 - 07:53 下午Patience!This week is relatively light on economic events, with the exception of Friday's unemployment report, but today still provided some interesting fireworks.
I've been following the $XBD (AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer index) with great interest over the past year. This index peaked in June, and it got smacked hard in July, October, January, and March. A few days ago, I was starting to wonder if the bottom had been reached with the March 17 Bear Stearns bailout. One could see a lower in mid-March, a higher low in April, and a higher low in May. Perhaps a new uptrend was in the works.
I think today answered that question - - the trend appears to still be down. If we take out April's lows, which we can close to doing today, the entire "higher lows" pattern has been zeroed out.
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The downgrading of the investment banks had sweeping effects throughout the market. The Dow was down 200 points intraday, although it closed down 134 points. It is still dancing around its Fibonacci retracement, but it is on the underside of it with good prospects of moving beneath April's lows.
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Although high-tech had a very big bounce from mid-March to mid-May, the action over the past couple of weeks may be marking an exhaustion point. The $MSH, shown below, tried last Friday to push to a new high for the year, but it fell short. Today the price of the index started falling away from that level, and a crack beneath 580 would seal the fate of this index.
Although high-tech had a very big bounce from mid-March to mid-May, the action over the past couple of weeks may be marking an exhaustion point. The $MSH, shown below, tried last Friday to push to a new high for the year, but it fell short. Today the price of the index started falling away from that level, and a crack beneath 580 would seal the fate of this index.
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A similar phenomenon can be seen with the $COMPQ, although the bearish point is easier to judge; a break beneath 2,430 would clearly indicate lower prices ahead., as the failure to move above the resistance line is a loud signal of the bulls' failure.
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Another interesting NASDAQ pattern I am watching is the ascending price channel on the $NDX (NASDAQ 100). A dip beneath last Wednesday's low price would crack the lower support line and, in my estimation, signal we have entered a "C" wave downward.
Another interesting NASDAQ pattern I am watching is the ascending price channel on the $NDX (NASDAQ 100). A dip beneath last Wednesday's low price would crack the lower support line and, in my estimation, signal we have entered a "C" wave downward.
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I have a few puts in semiconductor stocks (like KLAC) since the one index I was fairly bullish on a couple of months ago seems to have petered out as well - - the $SOX.
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I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the
I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the retracement almost to the hundredth of a point. Obviously the price is noodling around this line, trying to figure out which way to make a break.
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I got a bit of flak for my AAPL puts, but I stand by this call. I have great hopes for this trade.
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We've all been watching FSLR, and today's sharp movement downward has pierced the supporting trendline. I am optimistic that I've got about $50/share more in intrinsic value to pad onto my FSLR puts.
We've all been watching FSLR, and today's sharp movement downward has pierced the supporting trendline. I am optimistic that I've got about $50/share more in intrinsic value to pad onto my FSLR puts.
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Although GENZ has pierced its neckline, I'm a bit frustrated that the prices haven't moved more plainly lower. I find the strength in the face of this pretty good H&S pattern to be puzzling.
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Capital One has also been a long-time favorite stock on this blog. I had even suggested last week, given its proximity to the supporting line., that it might be a long candidate (although I simultaneously said I wouldn't buy it myself, because I was afraid the trend would break). Sure enough, it broke today. This has been a frustratingly slow-moving stock, but I can at least say that I think the likelihood of a bullish move by COF is now kaput.
Capital One has also been a long-time favorite stock on this blog. I had even suggested last week, given its proximity to the supporting line., that it might be a long candidate (although I simultaneously said I wouldn't buy it myself, because I was afraid the trend would break). Sure enough, it broke today. This has been a frustratingly slow-moving stock, but I can at least say that I think the likelihood of a bullish move by COF is now kaput.
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Several nice folks thanked me for my CHTT suggestion. This H&S, unlike GENZ, is clicking along nicely. Traditional projection measurements would put the target price on this at about $48.
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Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.
Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.
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I am back from my travels, so my updates should be a little more punctual for the rest of this week. Thanks, as always, for stopping by!
Posted: 07:53 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink
五月 29, 2008 - 02:38 下午Oil Helps OutCrude oil, which is on the nation's mind like never before, softened up enough today do my puts some good. I am generally short most major items related to oil, gold, and agriculture. We had similar dips in crude oil in late March and late April, both of which were followed by pushes to new lifetime highs, so I am not saying the past few days are game-changing. But at some point this bull trend will be broken.
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I mentioned yesterday that I closed out my XAU puts. That was obviously early, and it's a shame that the huge bid/ask spread was the major reason for my wanting to close them out. Oh, well. I could see this easily heading to $160 and maybe even lower.
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My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
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Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.
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Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
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CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.
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I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
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Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.
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Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
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The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.
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I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).