五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.
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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.
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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.
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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?
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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.
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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.
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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.
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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.
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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.
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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.
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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).
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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.
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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.
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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.
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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.
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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.
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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.
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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.
Posted: 03:03 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ABT (3)
九月 06, 2008 - 09:48 上午Thank HankThe news looming over all of us now is It is reported this would be the largest bailout in the nation's history. As an American, this saddens me. It saddens me to see the government of our country turn its back on true capitalism and whore the nation's treasury for the sake of their friends. This is not how a free market behaves. Free markets - - true free markets - - are natural, healthy, and self-cleansing. Sometimes the cleansing process is painful. But what Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are doing is destroying the country's future for the short-term benefit of ingratiating themselves to their small body of constituents.
Having said that, as a bear, I couldn't be happier with this news. As readers here know, last week was sensational for me. But I got out of my index puts since I felt they had done their duty, and I wanted to see indexes fight their way back to their failure levels before re-entering those positions. But what would create such an opportunity? What new reason would the bulls be given to buy? Well, my friends, the reason is here. Straight from God in heaven above. Another bailout. Another white horse. Thanks, Hank. I'm not the patient sort, and this is going to let me reload without the bother of waiting around.
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As for where to re-enter - - anything near 1,260 on the S&P 500 is going to get me excited.
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Folks who read this blog aren't used to hear me talking about "buying calls" and "going long", but on Friday, that's exactly what I did. I loaded up on precisely those things which had made me money on the short side just days earlier..........oil.........gold..........ags. This is somewhat risky, since I am betting on a countertrend movement, but that's how I am positioned. Playing both sides requires ridiculous amounts of dexterity; I'm not sure if it will pan out, but to my way of thinking, the graphs are telling me that it's time for a bounce higher before we resume the broader bearish sweep down.
Folks who read this blog aren't used to hear me talking about "buying calls" and "going long", but on Friday, that's exactly what I did. I loaded up on precisely those things which had made me money on the short side just days earlier..........oil.........gold..........ags. This is somewhat risky, since I am betting on a countertrend movement, but that's how I am positioned. Playing both sides requires ridiculous amounts of dexterity; I'm not sure if it will pan out, but to my way of thinking, the graphs are telling me that it's time for a bounce higher before we resume the broader bearish sweep down.
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One specific issue I've gone long is ABX. I'm not sure if it would push its way as high as that horizontal line; it's sort of done that already; but I think this is good for a couple of points.
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A larger point move is more likely with FCX, which got near a major support level that stretches back more than a year.
A larger point move is more likely with FCX, which got near a major support level that stretches back more than a year.
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I bought puts on CLX about a week ago, and it's just about the only thing I own that's in the red. I'm willing to hang on. I like the look of this chart.
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Of course, I am delighted that the $UTIL finally broke down. We've been waiting a few weeks for this, and it's finally here. The FNM/FRE bailout will probably send interest rates zooming higher, and obviously that will be great for this bearish position.
Of course, I am delighted that the $UTIL finally broke down. We've been waiting a few weeks for this, and it's finally here. The FNM/FRE bailout will probably send interest rates zooming higher, and obviously that will be great for this bearish position.
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As for which energy issues I've been buying, I've been focusing on those charts which have retraced to safe support levels. Let's face it - the chart below is pretty bullish looking. In some cases, I might not even hold on just for a quick bounce; there is a real argument to be made for the long-term strength of such a graph. Of course, it would have to push past its August highs. If it did, this becomes a dynamite bullish chart.
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I think the investment banks could find some serious strength too. Just look at MER (incredibly, this retracement pattern goes back to 1974!) I think a ride up to the high 30s is absolutely within reason.
While energies in general have been falling, natural gas in particular has been getting just obliterated. Look at the continous contract below for the NG futures. There is a hugh amount of ownership at these price levels. I think support here will be terribly strong.
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.......which led me to go long (for the first time ever) UNG.......
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In some cases Friday, I was tempted to take profits, but I wanted to be in a position to take more if the fall extended. EXC was a good example. I had four puts, which about $6,000. I decided to sell half the position (for about 100% profit) and hang on to the other half. To be honest, I can't picture this falling much more right now, so I've set my stop absurdly tight. But you never know.
In some cases Friday, I was tempted to take profits, but I wanted to be in a position to take more if the fall extended. EXC was a good example. I had four puts, which about $6,000. I decided to sell half the position (for about 100% profit) and hang on to the other half. To be honest, I can't picture this falling much more right now, so I've set my stop absurdly tight. But you never know.
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Well, I'm typing this from my little girl's gym, which smells like someone's jogging sock, so I'll sign off until Monday. If the rumors are true about FNM and FRE, it's going to be an amazing Monday. I get very cautious when things go this well - - I'm expecting the trading gods to come down and smack me with losses. But if one remains humble, cautious, and prudent, you can at least make sure your ego and success don't come back and force humility down your throat by means of losses.
Posted: 09:48 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 05, 2008 - 09:15 上午By Jove, HolmesI'm buying calls on a variety of gold and energy issues (carefully-selected ones). Here are a few.
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Posted: 09:15 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
七月 05, 2008 - 04:01 下午The Wall of WorryI am writing this entry on Saturday, July 5th during a very pleasant three-day weekend in Colorado. I do not think I will have an opportunity to do another post until Monday night.
Over the past couple of days, I have spent a lot of time (as you might imagine) thinking about the markets and looking at the charts. The "contrarian-contrarian" viewpoint seems to be going something like this: "Since everything is so bearish (including this weeks' cover story of Barron's), then the obvious contrarian conclusion is that the market is going to bounce. But since so many contarians are so loudly declaring that we're a bounce is inevitable at this point, then we're bound to keep falling, because the market always like to surprise the most people possible."
That kind of thinking - - that is, trying to outguess what everyone on the planet is thinking - - can make you crazy. I prefer to stick to the charts. What the charts are telling me is that we're in for a bounce (and not the kind that lasts for just a few hours). I don't intend to get overly aggressive about this bounce. But I will say that (a) I took a huge portion of my positions either wholly or partly off the table on Friday, including all my index puts; (b) I went long a number of bullish ETF funds (the double-correlated kind); (c) I intend to make select long equity purchases on Monday, barring a surprise.
One index chart that seems terribly ripe for at least a few days of an upturn is the $XBD:
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Looking at the $INDU, its price has the Bollinger Band distorted verybadly, and I think a list of about 700 points higher from here would bring a lot of needed relief to the market (and a new opportunity for the author and readers of this blog to reload).
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The Transports, too, look ready to get back to about 5,100; a drop in crude prices, which I strongly suspect will happen, will provide an impetus for such a climb.
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My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.
My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.
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As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.
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To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.
To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day.......), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.
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I read somewhere that GM was at the lowest levels for its stock since 1954. I'm not sure where they are getting that price data, but it's not really accurate, as you can see below. In any case, if you had bought GM when Lyndon Johnson was present, you would (even assuming 0% infllation for 40 years) still be in the red. Isn't that amazing?
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The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.