十一月 05, 2008 - 07:34 上午Make Money Shorting? Yes We Can.
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Posted: 07:34 上午 | 64 insightful comments | Permalink
ADP (2)
五月 06, 2008 - 09:17 上午A Few Current Favoriteshttp://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=723
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Posted: 09:17 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
二月 27, 2008 - 01:39 下午AutoDesk - Anatomy of a Failed BreakoutThis is going to be a short entry. I'm going to do my real post later today.
I've been following AutoDesk (ADSK) for a while. I've shied away from it, because it seemed to be exhibiting a relatively bullish breakout pattern in the face of a weak market. Here, for example, is what it looked like as it seemed to be breaking to new highs. Notice something, however. The price has trouble staying above that horizontal line. It breaks above it, sinks well below it, then tries to break out again. Not to anthropomorphize the stock too much, but it seems to be struggling.
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Then something truly serious happens - - the trendline is broken. So what we have here is better than simply a broken trendline break. We have a trendline break following what should have been a marvelous bullish breakout. That one-two punch makes the likelihood of a fall that much more potent. You can click on the "Present" tab to see the aftermath.
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So even if you are a bear, keep an eye on stocks that seem bullish. You may find other opportunities like these.
I'll see you in a few hours........I've got some meetings, but it was an interesting day today, and I've got some things to say about it.
Posted: 01:39 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ADSK (2)
二月 25, 2009 - 11:58 上午OverachieverLong ago, a woman prayed that her suitors be
Repelled so she might serve God, be His only
God heard her prayers floating up and his heart was cheered
He rewarded her amply with a full beardMy precious metals shorts are kickin' it.
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Today is going splendidly; many opportunities to jump in and out of /ES.
Posted: 11:58 上午 | 211 insightful comments | Permalink
二月 24, 2009 - 08:23 上午Very Short PMFar and away my largest cash short is in precious metals; here are a few examples.
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I've got both silver and gold shorts, and I've entered them at good prices (e.g. last week and yesterday). I think these have a very, umm, bright future ahead.
Posted: 08:23 上午 | 56 insightful comments | Permalink
二月 23, 2009 - 09:47 上午Favorite Shorts - Set 1 of 5
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Posted: 09:47 上午 | 72 insightful comments | Permalink
十一月 04, 2008 - 09:56 上午Sell Filled Gaps?Some of the stocks I bought last week are up thirty to forty percent. Some of them are "keepers", but some were simply opportunistic. AEM is an example of the latter.
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Interpreting gaps is a weak area for me, but my inclination is to sell at this point, given that the gap has indeed been filled. I suppose the stock might have more upside, but given my belief that stocks will start selling off hard around Thursday, I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Posted: 09:56 上午 | 19 insightful comments | Permalink
九月 14, 2008 - 06:16 上午Getting Ready for the Gold/Energy ShortSo, I wonder what cuteness the Feds are going to pull this weekend? Use taxpayer dollars to bail out Lehman? Send everyone a $2,000 check they can spend at WalMart? Cut interest rates to 0%? Make short-selling illegal? You just never know.
Everything is waiting to see what happens to LEH, of course. With only 365 cents left to its share price, there's not much left to fall.
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This last posting of the week is going to be somewhat different - - I'm not going to provide any opinion on the broad market. Instead, I'm going to offer a "theme" to invest. Specifically - - re-entering short positions on the energy/gold sector (I think of them as one sector these days, strange as that may sound). My narrative is pretty simple. I think the EUR/USD, which has been firming up, won't get much past the ~1.43 level, tinted below.
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Here's a closer look. As you can see, the retracement level is just about at 1.435.
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Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).
Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).
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And, finally, gold/silver (as I measure via the $XAU index) won't get past the mid-130s (thanks, by the way, to giggity for the PAAS suggestion since I expressed an interest in going long silver; it was up nearly 10% today).
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Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:
Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:
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And I'll close this week out with a bizarre 4+ minutes with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld, which was just released this week. Actually, I think it's pretty funny. Adios!
06:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 02, 2008 - 03:31 下午Utter Rally FailureToday went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion "oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher, soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So, naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.
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The broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.
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The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
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Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.
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As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.