八月 25, 2008 - 01:59 下午Then I Woke UpIn this weekend'sI wrote, "Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday."
Well, I was neither surprised nor disappointed. I got the "one-two punch" I was hoping for............a drop across the board in oil, gold, and equities. The notion that these are inversely correlated is, in my opinion, total nonsense, and I am positioned as such. Today's 241 point drop on the Dow was welcome, and the last three days of this week are packed with important economic reports.
Observant readers may notice that myhave dropped from something like 95% to 77%. The reason for this is that we've changed how this is calculated. Last week, a reader pointed out what he felt was a mathematical flaw in the calculation; I agreed, and I asked an engineer to correct it. This has been corrected, but still, the figures shown are not bad! Please keep in mind my about this figure, no matter what it says.
Today I'm simply going to show you my favorite current positions. I've got a total of 109 - - yes, 109! - - positions, every single one of them bearish. But here are my jumping-up-and-down favorite ones.........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1799&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Posted: 01:59 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 15, 2008 - 07:16 上午King MidasA few days ago, I speculated that:
[*]Gold would rise short-term[*]Oil would rise short-term[*]An opportunity to re-enter puts on agricultures would present itself near the end of that brief runWell, I was right on all of these, but I never imagined it would be so short-lived! I thought we'd be in for, say, a week or so of the above. Instead it only took a couple of days.
This is one instance where my impatience worked for me. I took a big bullish position in ABX (for the gold play) at 32.50 and got out two days later at 35.50 (these were calls, so the percentage gain was very good). I also had a bunch of PXD with the same result. But, again, look how swiftly gold went up and then resumed its fall!
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It's not all wine and roses, though. My bullish play on $XDE didn't work out at all, since the dollar's strength only intensified (as I remarked in a prior post, I am a dollar bull, mainly because I think interest rates are about to shoot higher - - hence my bearish play on $UTIL).
The new opportunity to get puts on agricultural/energy momentum stocks definitely re-appeared, and here are a few favorites.
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I say again, I am really amazed at the dollar's strength. Maybe people can visit Europe again some day at reasonable prices!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1702&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 07:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 14, 2008 - 12:13 上午Let It All Hang OutIt's after midnight, so I'm just going to throw some charts at you. Everything is going according to plan so far. Oil: up. Gold: up. Equities: down. Let's see how long this bounce in gold and oil lasts before those markets join equities in the descent.
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Off to bed.....
Posted: 12:13 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink