My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1070&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1070&state=present&height=600&width=600
"Fizzler" (FSLR) had another nice drop today, reaffirming how broken its former support is.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1073&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1073&state=present&height=600&width=600
And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1074&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1074&state=present&height=600&width=600
AMLN, one of my equity shorts, had a nice double-digit percentage drop today.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1075&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1075&state=present&height=600&width=600
And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).
And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1076&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1076&state=present&height=600&width=600
Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1077&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1077&state=present&height=600&width=600
One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1078&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1078&state=present&height=600&width=600
And, finally, one specific real estate short is LRY.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1079&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1079&state=present&height=600&width=600
After Friday's fireworks, today was a snoozer. Oh, well! Not every day can be 400 points off the Dow, can it? Good night!
Posted: 04:25 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=864
I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.
It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=850&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=850&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=851&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=851&state=present&height=600&width=600
I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.
I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=852&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=852&state=present&height=600&width=600
But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=853&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=853&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=854&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=854&state=present&height=600&width=600
My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=855&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=855&state=present&height=600&width=600
Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.
Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=856&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=856&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=857&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=857&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.
I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=858&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=858&state=present&height=600&width=600
First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=859&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=859&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.
I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=860&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=860&state=present&height=600&width=600
Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.
Original [*]Present
BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=862&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=862&state=present&height=600&width=600
ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!
Having said that, there are a number of issues which seem to have experienced fundamental breakdowns and, in spite of today's strength, seem to simply be setting up for another fall (already). Here are a couple of examples.
Original [*]Present
http://assethost01a.iterasi.net/ec2eb670e447/94d5ad32ba6b/ff6f9e86baa1/1ee9d33013b3/98e990a2-5a74-47e7-aecd-b98434c62a83/60ab5ad1-94a6-4649-b2b2-a19cb0d33dbf-Asset63.png
http://assethost01a.iterasi.net/ec2eb670e447/94d5ad32ba6b/ff6f9e86baa1/1ee9d33013b3/98e990a2-5a74-47e7-aecd-b98434c62a83/60ab5ad1-94a6-4649-b2b2-a19cb0d33dbf-Asset65.png
Original [*]Present
http://assethost01a.iterasi.net/ec2eb670e447/94d5ad32ba6b/ff6f9e86baa1/1ee9d33013b3/98e990a2-5a74-47e7-aecd-b98434c62a83/60ab5ad1-94a6-4649-b2b2-a19cb0d33dbf-Asset69.png
http://assethost01a.iterasi.net/ec2eb670e447/94d5ad32ba6b/ff6f9e86baa1/1ee9d33013b3/98e990a2-5a74-47e7-aecd-b98434c62a83/60ab5ad1-94a6-4649-b2b2-a19cb0d33dbf-Asset71.png
Remember when I used to do just five posts in an entire week? This blog has become a bit out of control, and I'm doing more like 40 a week now! Yowie, I really need to get my life back.
06/01/2009A Couple Lesser-Known Commodity ETFs Commodities continue on their tear higher, and a couple of ETFs caught my eye as bullish-looking that I haven't mentioned before. They are DBB......
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b5f04d970b-500wi
.........and DYY.......
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b5f06f970b-500wi
Also, I know that Disqus is still having latency problems. This has nothing to do with my move to a new platform. It's just an unfortunate circumstance.
Posted by Tim Knight at 9:25 AM | Permalink | 60 Insightful Comments
Our Friends @ Goldman 666 On a day when the Dow is up nearly 200 points, I find this graph more than a little interesting. GS is actually down a little. Hmmmm........
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b59fcd970b-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 7:14 AM | Permalink | 60 Insightful Comments
Time for the Big Breakout? Well, to those who thought the end-of-day in sanity on Friday was an extremely temporary spike that would soon be washed out, this simply isn't the case. As I type this, half an hour before the regular opening bell, the /ES is up over 14 points. There is a serious threat of the big breakout finally happening which would look something like this:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc04804970c-500wi
This would fulfill the /ES target of ~1075 that I've been talking about forever (but have largely failed to profit from).
This is actually a pretty obvious direction, and I frankly don't see much standing in its way. The market doesn't seem to care about bad news, and whatever good news it receives is welcome as more signs of green shoots spouting up all around.
The less obvious result from today would be a failed breakout, which would be pretty damaging for the bulls, since the pattern as it stands now is marvelously clean. A failure's form is much harder to project, but it might look something like this:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc049d4970c-500wi
What would happen after that is tough to say, although it would probably be a real mess for bulls and bears alike. The clean, easy-to-trade pattern would be the continuation of the breakout shown first.
Just a general heads-up to Slopers that this will be a week chock full of meetings and travel for me, so I'll be a lot less chatty (and a little less bloggy) than usual.
Posted by Tim Knight at 6:08 AM | Permalink | 36 Insightful Comments
05/31/2009Maker Faire I was at the Maker Faire today for the third year in a row, not because I'm crazy about it (I don't even like it that much.........) but for the sake of my son. It is,however, the only place on earth where, by way of contrast with the surrounding folks, I can be considered:
[*]Stylish;[*]Slender;[*]Good-lookingAll in all, it's kind of like Burning Man, but without the drugs.
I actually have some pithy stuff to say, but I'll hold off for the moment. If I feel like waxing philosophic later tonight, perhaps I'll crank up the laptop. In the meantime, a final good-bye to May (with a swift kick in its backside, just to say"good riddance"), and a hearty thank-you for everyone here.
Posted by Tim Knight at 7:43 PM | Permalink | 107 Insightful Comments
Flux I had planned to have Slope moved over by June 12th, but I impulsively decided yesterday (that is, Saturday) to get it done before May was even over. Somehow I managed to make that happen.
Here are some remarks about the move:
[*]It looks like Disqus is working (thanks, Daniel!) which will make this platform change much smoother for all the readers;[*]With some assistance, I was able to get all the thousands of posts from the old blog platform moved over, so we're not starting from scratch (although these old posts lack the charts!);[*]For your aesthetes out there, don't flip out at the ugly new style of the site. This is very much "Default" right now, and it'll be improving in appearance quite radically throughout the month of June.Well, I might as well give a chart a try; here goes - - Gold, for no particular reason:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fbe173d970c-500wi
Charts are going to be smaller (with the ability to see the larger chart if you click on it) to make bandwidth hits a little more kind.
Anyway, I'm just putting my toe in the water. As the summer wears on, it'll be more and more obvious why this platform change made sense. Thanks for tagging along!
06/02/2009Many Assets Seem Fully Valued http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b976fe970b-500wi
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b976f0970b-500wi
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b976cc970b-500wi
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b976bb970b-500wi
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc43f2b970c-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 2:39 PM | Permalink | 39 Insightful Comments
What Will Stop the S&P? I'm wondering if there's a "Slope Effect" with microcap stocks. I mentioned SYMX earlier today, and I see the price is substantially higher now. Too bad my lottery places are such deliberately small positions!
There are two strong barriers to the S&P's rise, although the space between current levels and those barriers is still about 50 points away. One of them is the descending trendline (which defined the lower boundary of the channel the S&P was in prior to its Autumn 2008 break) and the other is the 38.2% retracement level.
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b91068970b-500wi
Barring some serious selling, I really see little in the way of the S&P clawing its way back to the 4-digits. At the same time, as I am going through hundreds of charts in my core watch list, I am seeing nothing but bearish opportunities. So it's a puzzling situation.
Posted by Tim Knight at 11:52 AM | Permalink | 102 Insightful Comments
Live Market Webcam http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b8c22e970b-500wi Looks like we're having a real barn-burner today. The Dow seems to be toggling between down 1 point and up 1 point. I'm not sure how much more of this excitement I can stand.
My week full o' meetings continues, so maybe it's a good thing the market is so dead boring. At least I've provided a place for you guys to chat about the weather and last night's bowling tournament.
Posted by Tim Knight at 9:46 AM | Permalink | 64 Insightful Comments
SYMX - an interesting Lottery Long http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b8a9d6970b-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 9:28 AM | Permalink | 9 Insightful Comments
Dollar at a Possible Turning Point Here's the NZD/USD:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b885ef970b-500wi
......and here's USD/CAD:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b885ce970b-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 8:12 AM | Permalink | 58 Insightful Comments
06/01/2009Watch the Euro In tonight's Short-Term Update from Elliott Wave International, I found this chart of sentiment (used with permission) quite fascinating:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc1b314970c-500wi
Optimism has returned to the levels seen in late October 2007 when the S&P was well above 1500! Bulls are everywhere! Cramer is actually uttering the phrase "Four Horsemen" again! It's as if November 2007-March 2009 never happened.
My snark-o-meter continues to peg pretty high. Fistfights are breaking out at other blogs. Slope tends to hold the high ground in terms of etiquette and comment decency, although some modest snarks are appearing here and there. And I would remind those who sneer that this is a "bearish blog" that I was quite vocal about being bullish on energy and commodities, which have performed spectacularly. So foo-foo to you.
It appears there are some of you who don't spend every waking hour on Slope, and thus the blog platform change was completely unknown to you. Many of the features to which you grew accustomed on the old blog are gone, but most will be returning. A notable one is the watch list feature, which resembled this:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b6e860970b-500wi
Rest assured, Slope is going to be better than it ever was. I've performed a few miracles to change platforms and move thousands of old posts over in the span of three days, so just give it some more time.
Finally, keep an eye on the EUR/USD. Its ascent has been driving just about everything higher, and it's reaching an exhaustion level. Once this turns down, you can expect energies and commodites to follow suit.
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc1bc1d970c-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 4:30 PM | Permalink | 219 Insightful Comments
Breakout or Not? Well, wasn't that another fun walk through the park?
The question is whether we've broken out or not. We certainly exceeded January's high, but we closed right at the breakout point.
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc1738f970c-500wi
Commodities continued to be on a tear, DBC, DBC, DYY - - they're all looking sensational.
I'm making some minor adjustments on the blog now, so excuse me for a while..........
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc1740b970c-500wi
Posted by Tim Knight at 2:00 PM | Permalink | 74 Insightful Comments
I Still Like GE as a Short http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009898222883301156fc138cc970c-500wi
I hope you Slopers are doing OK on this, the 89th day of Captivity of Sanity. We pray that our bear market, held hostage since the first part of March, is being treated humanely by its captors.
Posted by Tim Knight at 12:47 PM | Permalink | 38 Insightful Comments
It Floats! Everything is going up. Everything. Interesting little mania we've got going on here.
High-quality blue-chip organizations like Thrifty Rent-a-Car have gone up 1,350% in just three months.
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833011570b63382970b-500wi
When "stuff" like this is floating, well, I think you know what I'm going to say. The bottom line is that there was a reason it fell from $56 to 60 cents in the first place, and I realllllllllllllly doubt that reason doesn't exist anymore.
Posted by Tim Knight at 11:20 AM | Permalink | 108 Insightful Comments
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Owner/My%20Documents/My%20Pictures/8899/新建文件夹%20(33)/sc.JPG
11111
Update: Shutterfly (SFLY) tradeJune 8, 2009 – 5:34 pm
I will be coverig SFLY tomorrow.CEO to speak at conference tomorrow and Wednesday.Then re-short under 13.
Oh, and btw… Bears, you suck.We had a WTF-pattern at the end of the day to close out flat.Lol.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/1f3734cb6d19aeb6f5f3094fda49c4ef.png
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
4 Comments
A Brief Message to Celtics, Lebron, and Superman Fans…June 8, 2009 – 12:04 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/891858f3bb60a20ce02326888147ed68.jpg
I bought tickets to fly to L.A. next week to catch a game.Hopefully LA doesn’t sweep them in Orlando, otherwise they won’t have any games left.
Let the trash talking begin…
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
13 Comments
Textbook Swing Trading with GMCRJune 5, 2009 – 3:13 pm
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/c052b5ddd7c8c530655bd393bcc9d164.png
I sold half of GMCR today as planned at 92.xx, bringing my average-cost gain for this trade to about 190%.Bought this in the 30s, 50s, and 70s.I hope the remaining half gets me into the 200 zone!I figured we would get a follow-through over into the 90s, and we did, but heading into the weekend I wanted to make sure I took advantage of this and decided to sell on the news.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/aeae7834a68f74b4726c9a45f88e53cb.jpg
If you’ve been following me, then you know that I know GMCR in and out and have been following it both as a stock, but more importantly as a company.I don’t track that many stocks, but when I lock in on one of them that has all the right properties within a longer term swing trader’s comfort area, then it’s a textbook trade from there.I placed the significant buy and sell points on GMCR on the chart, try to remember the reasons why I bought and sold in these areas.They are unique in that I didn’t pay any attention to moving averages throughout these trades, but kept with simple cause-and-effect relationships and the generally behavioral pattern of the stock thereafter.These work best for small cap companies
[*]Find company with growing earnings… the ones that jump out of your screen, like double digits or even triple digits.GMCR surfaced in screen late 2008, and hit my priority list in late January.[*]Track mutual fund and institutional ownership trend.[*]I decided to buy pre-earnings because GMCR had a nice run, but on low volume up until that date.It was under the radar, and with a good chance that it would beat estimates, I figured the skeptical buyers would come in.Post report, volume surged![*]Usually with surprise earnings you will get a post-earnings run-up.If you’re a swing trader, then you want to sell into these run-ups, then re-buy closer to stock price close to the earnings day spike (I usually aim for low-of-day on the spike).[*]So, GMCR was giving us 1) stellar earnings, 2) increased institutional ownership in a very short period of time, and 3)breakout after breakout on technicals … these are the key criterias for stocks on the IBD 100.But GMCR’s was special, and so it jumped all the way to #1 recently.Again, by the time it gets there, if you are a swing trader then you want to sell some on the news.I say “some” because the after effect is 50/50 from here:we either rally up again, or we see profit-taking.When it is 50/50, we move to the current status of the market, which is 1)really choppy, 2) overbought, and 3) the VIX is signalling increased volatility.All three indicators there give me reason to take partial profits instead of adding to position.http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/02e968c9c1c1d6d8f11b9e95dcc77066.png
So anyway, that was a brief case-study in action on position-sizing for swing trading.As you can see, you can pick entry and exit points by minimizing technical analysis and it really works.Looking back, this trade in GMCR is starting to look more like an “investment” rather than a “trade.”Hmmmmm, feels like 2007 all over again.Time for some coffee!!
Aloha,
Gio
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
8 Comments
Heads up on VIX, GMCRJune 5, 2009 – 3:46 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/cdce42123f1338dd445b44de1c2f6248.png
This is from a bear’s perspective…
We were using VIX <30 as a place to short complacent rallies.That worked well in the past two weeks.Still yet, it has been very tricky out there, and rookies should avoid the shorting game for now.The VIX has not been giving clear signals either as it did before, since many of these dips were fought back with yet another mini-relief rally.
From the chart, you’ll notice the red-shaded areas were signs of complacency on the VIX which led to a nice sell-off in the market.I’m switching it a little here though, using the yellow-shaded area as a better place to short.In other words, I’m giving priority to “momentum in selling” over “complacency in market.”You should be thoroughly confused now.If you are, stay on the side-lines and wait for a technical breakdown instead.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/fa14e731e4df0791cb4476de50c760b0.png
In other news, I just wanted to give a heads up to the coffee investors that I will be selling 1/2 of GMCR over 90.We have to take advantage of the late money here; if we get bigger volume then better yet.It’s time to sell on the news, and let the rest ride to triple digits if we get it.I still think you can get GMCR under 86 so I’ll pause on buying here and instead mess around with PEET.
Go Lakers!
-gio-
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
2 Comments
Lakers vs Magic!June 4, 2009 – 6:19 am
Game starts 3pm Hawaii time, so I’ll be throwing a small party.I’ll be tweeting the game, complete with insults and harassment against the refs and @DwightHoward.
Tomorrow I will be watching a few stocks carefully due to an important test of pivot points, or reaction to news and data.These stocks include:
-AIPC (needs to break 29, otherwise it will follow AFAM’s pattern.
- GEOY (this stock got hit on “bad image data” a few weeks ago, which seemed way overblown at first.Regardless, it’s important to remember that investors are very picky on this satellite stock.
- SNDA (this fortune cookie, which looks like a big move in either direction is coming.I like all three stocks for a trade for the next few weeks.
Finally, I just noticed that Monday’s VIX <30 presented another good entry for short-term shorts.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Trade: SFLYJune 3, 2009 – 6:28 pm
New shorts:SFLY (14.08)
Other notes:
-LXU …big drop in PPT daily.Current hybrid = 3.06.A sell signal is coming up.
- SNDA …hybrid = 4.06.Will short on the retracement.
-APSG ..added to watch.Surveillance systems company beat expectations.Volume surges.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Trade Table: PEET, LULU, LINC, APOL, SFLYJune 3, 2009 – 7:33 am
I got 5 stocks that entered buy/short areas for me on Monday.I will probably enter at least 3 of these tomorrow, depending on the market’s mood.I mean, Monday didn’t really tell us much, and the VIX is favoring a “side-line” position.
- Already in PEET at 27.70 from yesterday.Looking to add the rest tomorrow.
- Already in LINC, looking to add APOL for more school exposure.
- And I have two short term swing setups in LULU, and SFLY
Stocks I’m watching (heavy priority):ICUI, JJSF
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Guess Who’s #1 on the IBD 100?June 2, 2009 – 4:54 pm
Mr. Coffee!
This one hit my radar late last year after noticing stellar growth numbers, and it wasn’t in the IBD 100 yet.Still has triple digit quarter-over-quarter growth.See, finding stocks the hard way (doing homework) works!Also check out PEET, which is piggy-backing this stock.Target for PEET is >30.Grab some coffee… America needs to get up extra early to earn back some money.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/b09384aa303073fa1206d2a086f46cd3.png
… long GMCR since early 30s, 50s, and 79.
Today, PEET got a nice boost off the news.Picked this up on the PPT, and we’ve been trading in and out of it there:
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/fd3185c46a1902e1c9fe139335106bcb.png
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
2 Comments
Day Trades in Play for June: Solars / Precious MetalsJune 1, 2009 – 5:49 am
Sharing some of my notes with you here.With the VIX moving up and down like a small firecracker I think it’s time to start changing strategy here.Whenever the VIX starts moving crazy again, then you know you have some opportunities for day-trading setups.For the past few MONTHS, the VIX sort of just coasted down, which made for great swing long plays.With the game changing here, I suggest scaling out of dead swing plays and reserving more cash for quicker day-trades, aka “the matrix trades.” So far I’m looking at two spots for high surf:
1)Solars:we are going for a “sell-the-news” effect.Obama loves alternative energy, so in the long term you want to stick with bigger names that have contracts for future revenue, stuff like SPWRA, FSLR, ENER.There should be some great opportunities to fade the smaller plays like YGE, SOL, CSIQ.
2)Precious metals:there are two raging gold markets.First, there is gold … have you seen all those “cash-for-gold” commercials?I think this rally has no real legs, but is more of a play on inflation safe-haven.These safe-haven stuff always reverse, but take a long time to do so.I’m pretty sure we will see some big haircuts in the sector, so short them; or if you have a nice average cost, then the proper move will be to buy the dip until we start heading back under the 200MA.Yep, gold is one of the few bright sectors that is trending above all important moving averages.Still yet, the quick day-trades will be found in shorting small caps on reversals, stuff like SLW, FRG.Oh yeah, and the other gold that has yet to reach its high… purple and gold baby!Go Lakers!!
One last tiny note about foreign markets…
China has been secretly rallying under the radar.Remember the 2-fortune cookies?One thing I noticed is that America’s stock market is following China’s path, in a macro sense.China stocks had explosive growth, then followed with a major decline, followed by consolidation, and have since rallied.Our stock market has done the same, but the recovery part is happening too fast in my opinion (which is told in the VIX moving from 80s to 20s in a very very very very very short period of time).In that sense, I think China’s market is more healthier than ours.Not saying that they have a better economy, it’s just they’re taking a better path so far.Anyway, pick any stocks that sound Chinese and play them either way.Volume, aka institutional money, is starting to resurface so I am slowly getting away from watching tech and banks, and instead keeping an eye on these Chinese lotto tickets.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Barcelona Wins Champions League; VIX < 30 = Short; Obama Gives Alternative Energy a BoostMay 28, 2009 – 5:59 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/7463103dc7b9cf5a5b89fede810771c6.jpg
Where are our international readers at?Right now I’m wearing my old Batistuta jersey I got from an Italian friend who swapped jerseys with me in an indoor match I played in Italy a few years ago.It’s a pretty nasty ritual they do, but whatever, that’s their custom.It’s washed, I promise.
If you live outside of the United States, then I’m sure you saw the game.Great game!If you live in the US, then you probably were watching the Laker game… great game too.Sorry Manchester, I honestly thought Ronaldo should have scored at least 3 goals in the first 5 minutes of the game.Total team came up with nil.If Manu won, then Ronaldo is #1, but Messi claims title as best in the world and he showed it yesterday.Little guy got skills.FC Barcelona has been my favorite football club for a while, and I’m glad they knocked off Manchester United.Finally.Next up… Lakers!
Anyway back to stocks… before all these games aired, Obama was busy shaking his alternative-energy pom-poms.I mean, I sat there watching this guy put lipstick all over this sector, while the underlying stocks were being bid up fast!Now we know why some of those energy plays were in play yesterday.YGE extended its near 20% gain with another 10% move.
As for the rest of the market… well, I’ll say it again, VIX in the 20s is making it very difficult for stocks to extend its rally.I’ve wrote that in Sunday’s report, so I hope you caught that.I’ve been fading this tape, or keeping a careful eye on the tape whenever the VIX gets under 30.So far this has worked quite well.I’m not sure how much longer this will work, but I can see the VIX is trying to change direction.Still waiting for that slow downward trend to be broken.
Let’s continue to use that VIX < 30.Look at these two charts, can you guess where I began fading and beefing up shorts on this intraday tape?
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=%5EVIX
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=%5EGSPC
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
11 Comments
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Social Media Networks- When Will Twitter Go Public? Can FaceBook Bank Coin?May 27, 2009 – 6:23 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/0d2368faf5f3173cad3dddb922443e32.jpg
You, my friend read iBankCoin daily, therefore it is a requirement that by the time you finish up and close your browser, your stock/financial/company IQ will be significantly higher than the inferior average person.Yes, your frequent visits to iBC will equip you with the knowledge and swagger to dominate every conservation about stocks…
Friend: Hey man, I bought some IBM stock.
You: What a coincidence.I gave a monkey a pencil and he circled that same stock too.
…You should be able to shout out the CEOs of products that your friends try to introduce you to….
Friend: Dude, have you seen Google Earth?It’s way trippy man.I think I can see my car!
You: Oh, you mean the product of Eric E. Schmidt who invested in Matthew O’Connell’sGeoEye-1 high-resolution commercial imaging satellite to send back images to Google’s mapping system?I heard a little about.In fact I installed it on my grandma’s BlackBerry Bold.Can you even get Google Earth on your Razor?
And of course, by reading iBC you will be able to wow that nerdy girl with hairy legs that sits in front of you in your discrete-mathematics class by telling her all the different companies that built each component of your iPhone.
Unpleasantly looking hairy woman: Hey, I like your iPhone.Can I touch it?
You: My friend has a Razor, I think you should touch that instead.And I’m not talking about a Motorola.
Hot girl: Hey nice phone.Can I touch it?
You: Sure!Did you know BroadCom (BRCM) makes the components to support that touchscreen?And a little company named SkyWorks (SWKS) handles the power amplification for the receiver?It’s amazing stuff.I love amazing stuff… So, Miss Amazing, tell me about your components.
Hot girl: Ew.Get away from me you creepy nerd.
So anyway, that got me thinking about more popular products that people are using, but don’t know a thing about them.I mean, people, your friends, your girlfriends, relatives… whatever … they all see a product, but they only look at them from a consumer’s point of view.We here look at something, dissect it, and tell you all about that company’s revenues, shoddy accounting principles, CEOs, and market potential.So let’s get to it and talk a little about Twitter and FaceBook, two products that are becoming household names.
Twitter vs FaceBook
So let me ask you this?Who is the founder of Twitter?If you say Howard Lindzon I will throw a pineapple at your face.The answer is Jack Dorsey, some software engineer who did what every other software engineer wish they did- simply create a giant chatroom and SMS-messaging-of-the-internet technology.See!You’re smarter already.In February 2009, Twitter ranked 3rd in social networking sites, trailing MySpace (2) and FaceBook (1).I’m pretty sure they’re #1 now.FaceBook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg… his last name is much cooler and easier to remember.I wonder why.
Can They Be Profitable?
I do have a twitter (”thehawaiitrader”), but not a FaceBook, so maybe I’m biased here, but I think Twitter actually has a better chance at making revenue than FaceBook.The problem with Twitter though is that it’s all just a game to many people.But to me, within the game, I see Twitter accomplishing what Google’s Search Engines cannot do… accessing consumer demand on the spot!That’s very valuable content, and if Google doesn’t understand that, they are behind the curve.Google matches ads with a user’s search, but Twitter has the ability to match ads with user’s conversations, thoughts, and other streams of conscious.Here are some examples…
[*]Let’s say you tweet, “I’m hungry”, you could get a number of replies from local restaurants with links to their latest deals, special of the day, buy-1-get-1 free kind of stuff.There’s actually a lunch wagon in LA that serves Korean-Tacos, and they tweet the location of their wagon every night!Crowds of people flock there.It’s hilarious, but we’re all jealous.[*]Let’s say you tweet, “Was Taken a good movie?”, then NFLX can send a response telling you when the movie is available and if you want to add it to your cue.[*]Customer relations:Every company in America will soon have their own Twitter account, with some PR girl in charge of sifting through tweets to find people talking about their products, then proceed to offer assistance.[*]Content is probably the most valuable thing here.If you use Twitter analytics you can track what people are talking about right now.What’s on their minds, what they hate and what they want.I’m sure companies, and even Google, could profit from that.http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/2a96beac2e1c75bdcec70beff2533624.png
(this is the lunch-wagon that tweets their location!sheesh.Go Kogi-BBQ!)
What about FaceBook, can they be profitable?I’m just not convinced with them.It reminds me of Ringo, or MySpace.In fact, it reminds me of a photo-album.Posting pictures of families doesn’t tell a supplier much.It’s not quite as ground-breaking as YouTube, so if any of the big boys were to go shopping, they’ll probably pick Twitter over FaceBook.Then again, I could be wrong, it looks like there already is some shopping going on for the Face…Digital Sky Technologies of Russia, offered about $200 million for some p-stock.Russia?What’s in Russia?I thought all they have there is snow and snow and, more snow.A bunch of profile pictures of fur-hoodies and ear-muffs.
Threats, Evil Threats
Both Twitter and FaceBook have the daunting task of staying as a perceived necessity, and not fade into the background as a trendy item of 2009.This is real hard to do, I mean look at Napster.Great product, but bad managing and PR, and AAPL just came along and stole their idea and gave the world iTunes… a monster sized cash cow for Steve.That copy-cat threat exists strongly for FaceBook; Twitter has to worry about fraud, fake Twitter accounts (like “KanyeWest”), and spam.
With that said, if Twitter ever goes public, don’t expect it to be an instant home-run, but looks worth a try.Shoot, I’d buy.More importantly, I do think this social-media phenomenon we are experiencing is what will change the face of consumer activity drastically in the near future.You can be sure companies everywhere are tuned to that.
Aloha!
http://twitter.com/thehawaiitrader
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/99e2fe9badf41bbb69e6558465b8e4ad.jpg
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
14 Comments
Caught in a pineapple squeezeMay 26, 2009 – 4:52 pm
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/97dfb7b445ab7b87fb60ad24b4c23df6.jpg
First off… Internet Explorer is gay.
Second, I have to clean up all these pineapples on my yard, so its time to make a drink.Try a “Surfer on Acid.”It’s good for both crowds.Bulls drink in celebration, bears drink in remorse.
1/2 oz Jagermeister® herbal liqueur
1/2 oz Malibu® coconut rum
1/2 oz pineapple juice
Anyway that was a nice rally on the tech side.It sent a lot of bears shorting that sector covering.I had to cover energy plays.Got squeezed out of YGE early, stopped out for a -6% loss from Friday’s swing, but played SOL for a daytrade hedge to keep things from getting out of hand.Boy that was a nice squeeze in YGE!I should have flipped the trade, especially seeing how much volume piled up throughout the day.To illustrate, it felt like I was paddling out towards a huge wave that was about to break, but I couldn’t turn around in time to catch it.I was looking out for sharks when I should have been looking at the waves.In other words, I was in the right area, but I just missed it.Yeah, I should have got aggressive in YGE from the morning.
Making some changes here… with consumer confidence high again I am going back from bearish to neutral on retail.It was a play on break of support, but we’ll have to revisit it later.I’m still bullish on retailers that have a focus on game-changing technology or intuitive products.For example, companies like NFLX, GMCR, are making a name of their own quietly.I used to think ISRG would be one of those companies that would set the standard, but because America is broke now I’ll have to adjust their timing.Keep an eye out for those companies!And no, FaceBook is not one of them.Speaking of FaceBook and social media, I have a question for you…
If Twitter had stocks, would you buy them?
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Up Up Down Down Left Right Left Right “B” “A” Select StartMay 22, 2009 – 6:34 am
Yeah, you know what I’m talking about.That’s for 2 players!And yes, everyone knows that “Spread” is the best gun, especially against that giant eye.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/667336c83ec2b1215d2a3948aaa4151c.jpg
Anyway, the video-game industry is one great place to trade stocks.Everyone everywhere plays games.It’s a way where we can break down barriers, overcome racial prejudice… because when you’re playing Halo 3 online, it doesn’t matter what color your skin is, you just want to make sure that dude in some other country has got your back.
Everyone plays video games, even up at the Royal Palace.Queen Elizabeth just got a golden Wii.I’m not kidding.It’s a pure pimped-out gold plated Wii, something you’d expect maybe in Jay-Z’s, Rob Dyrdek’s, or Danny’s living room. [source]
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/557205d141be4475f69bef6e0bc686f6.png
But yeah, that’s the old lady’s Wii.Hope she doesn’t break a hip playing Rock Band.
Anyway, a couple of gaming stocks are coming to life again, so let’s get these video-game stocks back on our radars, because there definitely is some action going on now and in the future.
First off, since we are talking about Wiis (that looks funny when you pluralize it) let’s check out Nintendo’s chart…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/03aca2631738b30986edb280e398aca7.png
NTODY.pk …. poor thing!With all that sales, this stock just doesn’t get any love.This stock is ripe for a trade though, I mean look at that steep triangle.It’s either break up or down big time.If you can, try play a strangle.
Here’ a gaming company you probably never heard of, but has a very trade-able chart.I picked it up from the PPT.SGMS has a nice trend line going up, but it’s been pretty common in almost all beat-down stocks.Short under the trend line, long over it.Why short under it?Because it might start looking like GME’s stock..
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/c27cdf1e73c656b50160be841a45aae4.png
Next up is GameStop, which does not look good…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/74fe0bff3977c232623628a1479d2f20.png
Look at that nasty volume on that sell-off.The question is, was it warranted?Disappointing results as stock gets knocked off below the trend-line.This will be a target for bears, so watch the shorts come in on a re-test of the trend-line.
Next up is TTWO.Which, is approaching a heavy resistance point.I like this company, but not the stock.TTWO has talent in the gaming industry, but the problem on the investors’ side is that the trade is just too crowded.It kind of reminds me of XMSR and SIRI… interesting and unique products, but bad stock.I like this as a short above 10.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/1557a69094c5d3b36a53b33b665425a0.png
But not all gaming stocks are ugly.The best gaming-related stocks are…… in China!Yup, China, our wonderful fortune-cookie play on the market.Did anyone decipher the second fortune cookie btw?My two favorites had great earnings.SNDA and NTES.All you need to know about SNDA is that they have the Massive-Multiplayer-Online gaming industry cornered.You figure China has 90 billion people, so if they each spent one dollar playing World of Warcraft that’s $90,000,000,000 in revenue!Work with me here…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/be8df3d26740f0facb17388dbd6b4198.png
Beeeee-you-ti-fullll!SNDA’s chart slaps a threatening depression in the face.The world needs video games apparently, more than it needs houses.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/720d38fa80b42c6c1fc5a651a3d68b2c.png
… yes, yes, yesssss.I’m feeling evil looking at these charts.Volume is great, momentum is great, and this stock just keeps breaking to the upside.You may be a little late here, but the dips look worth buying.NTES is an online community provider in China.So naturally, it kicks Yahoo’s butt.
But don’t let all Chinese gaming companies fool you.Some tap into the MMORPG (that stands for “massively multiplayer online role playing game” for you old folks) by providing expansion packs, which is like a me-too kind of company.My favorite one to look at is WebZen (WZEN), which dangerously trades on America’s stock market.It’s almost a ten-bagger lately. Lol…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/d8f0c6c81e760ac91507b59071d6645b.png
So there you have it… a quick lesson on the gaming industry and some ideas on how to trade it.I like going for strength in the sector, and shorting breakdowns.Keep it simple. China’s GDP should be bigger than United States so if we’re going with volume here, then the gaming industry in China has a long way to grow.Let’s go with this for now… short American gamers, long Chinese gamers.
And yes, I do have a Wii… not gold-plated, but still a great toy to high-jack a party.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/8f383b0f59d670eddd62ef7e7078aebb.png
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
13 Comments
Volatility is Back; Things to look for in a topping patternMay 21, 2009 – 3:28 pm
VIX jumps 10% today after dipping into the 20s earlier this week.The game is changing.Whenever the VIX gains volatility in itself, this usually leads to a bottoming or topping process in the broad market a few weeks later. One more thing I would monitor are the inverse ETFs, like SRS and SKF .Both of them trade near the lows of the year, so we are looking for a reversal with huge volume in them, which usually occurs before the market moves down. I bought puts in 2 strikes on FAS on Tuesday, just so that on my screen I can see how much people are willing to bid up and down the 3x ETFs.I usually get a good sense of investor sentiment there.
What does this mean for today’s tape?At this point it is not a good idea to add to longs, in fact you should be trimming them.On the short side, you should not be getting aggressive just yet.What is happening is just more news that is shaking out the weak and late longs.In other words, the foundations are being shaken but the building has yet to fall.What we do have is a ton of stocks, hundreds of them, that have rallied up to or slightly above their 200 MA (remember, for swing traders, the best stocks to short are the ones that have fallen under the 200 MA), and now the more bad news you have near this resistance point, the more easier it is for longs to rationalize a sale.Not exactly the best reason to short this sell-off.
Instead of rushing into shorting everything, or trying to buy the dip, what you should be doing here is screening for the stocks that have rallied to the 200ma on low volume and wait for a confirmation drop below it.Some stocks do breakout of that resistance area, but many will not.Try to keep a list of these stocks that are getting shutdown at the 200ma; you should see an increase in volume as they sell-off.It’s almost like a bear’s playground out there with all these ugly stocks rallying up to resistance, but you have to know how to play it.
On the other hand, what I do like about this whole relief-rally, is that even though everyone is looking at the stellar movement in the ugly stocks that have bounced, there actually has been some (very very few) nice and fresh new leaders that have risen from that capitulation period.These stocks have small caps, so they are in their growth stages.Money can be made shorting retarded tapes, but the real money comes from these smaller cap stocks that are born from the fire.They are “the next” APPL, MSFT, GRMN, SBUX, GOOG.When our economy gets everything fixed and this whole bank debacle becomes a memory, then these “the next” stocks will be the leaders of a “true rally.”Until then, this is a traders market.Trade accordingly.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
4 Comments
VIX back under 30… since “The Meltdown”May 20, 2009 – 4:26 am
Fear, what fear?It’s almost as if the stock market is saying, “My bad America…. world …. nothing happened.”
This is quite misleading though!…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/ff24a45443a00702fb75147ee1a26645.png
Remember, the “numbers” that print on the VIX are not as important as the magnitude of a given move in a short period of time.Fear and greed are short-term emotions so what matters most to us is when they are at conspicuous levels making a lot of noise, kind of like a lie-detector.I keep referring to this as a “vix-spike”, and if you’ve studied the Vix, it could spike either way.So, what do we have then with the VIX under 30?Same thing we had when it got under 34- an overly complacent tape, but regardless, that doesn’t give us a clear signal of a major reversal because there hasn’t been any spikes down on the VIX to signal greed.Sure, there’s a lot of dumb money getting sucked in, and a lot of laggards coming to life, but when you take a step back it’s not as surprising: Seeing how severe we sold off in a matter of months does not surprise me too much to see the Dow rally over 2,000 points back.Hey, we were once at 14,000 right?Pull out a 5-year chart and you’ll see we only rallied out of capitulation levels when we broke down under 9,000 - 10,000 range. I want to call this an epic-rally, but the more I look at the multi-year chart of the indexes, it just looks like a giant melt-up… a rally brought by hesitation and lack of institutional backing.But that doesn’t matter, what does matter is that these melt-ups are real bear-killers and although they are more common in ugly beat up individual stocks, it happened to an entire market.For that reason, I have HUGE doubts on this rally.If I ignore all news, and treat the entire market as an individual stock, then it has the same traits as a chart pattern of a company that had bad business practices and which creditors and investors bailed out sending the company’s stock price down.
Anyway, now that we are at medium-term extreme levels on the Vix, I am in search of a very valuable spike down on the Vix.That would be a great spot to search for a major market reversal, and a much better spot to short aggressive, or move your portfolio more to the short side (like 70/30).I’ve been keeping things at no more than half-size because the overhead gap is gigantic!In theory, just above 10,000 is not impossible, although improbable in the near term.
One last thing, and it’s an important lesson for those shorting the market in shorter time frames.If the VIX is trending down as market inches up, and there is no spiking action down, then you have a confirmed melt-up pattern.This is a real bear-killing occurrence, so you better study it and not get caught heavily short in the middle of it.If you are, then chances are you are trying to catch “the top”, which never works.Look at what has happened in the past 20 days…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/9b269789a9471eb41f226bd691752ab9.png
- In a matter of 20 days, the VIX “trickles down” more than 10 points!This is bullish.What would be bearish would be if the VIX drops 3 points one day, then 2 points the next, then 5 points a few days later… once again, its not so much the # on the VIX, but how fast it gets there … again, let me emphasize this, because fear and greed are relatively short-term emotions and can easily taint historical data.
So far, all of my shorts are still good thanks to averaging in and out using the VIX (I used <34 as 1st entry point to start shorting)… ZNH, OSTK; while keeping with “what works” by staying long GMCR since the 30s and 50s, and bailing out casino plays like FLWS when it didn’t immediately take off (momentum trading basics). Other than that, I’ve just been keeping an eye out for everyone else keeping tabs on sectors that are currently leading (ags, education, medical, farms), and which are acting strange (gold, oil, retail).Once again, using the VIX 20s rule, I’m downgrading gold based on market sentiments (fading not gold itself, but the safe-haven trade).Finally, remember as volatility drops, money is being made on swing set-ups, not day-trade set-ups.Trade accordingly!
Sorry for being verbose.It’s been a while since I used the VIX to explain the broad market, and since everyone on TV is cheerleading the fact that it’s now under 30, it’s probably a good time to make sure we know the real story the VIX is telling.
Aloha!
-gio-
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
7 Comments
Fading Gold < 905, Long Gold > 990May 19, 2009 – 6:05 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/2e420397b722e66835d4cede8333a0f5.png
Gold has been sloppy lately, but if you look carefully, we are in a sweet position to play gold either way.
For the next few weeks I am downgrading gold, and am setting 905 as a point to short it.I don’t know, maybe it’s all those “cash-for-gold” commercials that are getting to me.This is a heads-up play, since we are waiting for Gold to come to us… under 910 is a nice psychological point.With VIX trading near 30 even, the “safe-haven” play is almost out the window.Gold will not trade well with VIX back in the 20s.
The risk part to betting against gold is that other psychological point… 1,000.Odd, no?It just seems 990 was that double top in the past few months.It will take a lot to get gold above 990, so as a trader who wants to fade gold, we don’t have to worry about that.If the VIX were trending up, then I would go long gold.The channel is pretty clear and clean850~950 and that’s what I’m basing this strategy on.
I’ve been following these commodities, trying as much as I can to link it to world events, but I can’t quite put the past 3 weeks of gold/precious metals rally to anything specific… China? No.Inflation scare? Nope.Maybe I missed something.Nevertheless, I’m thinking on the other side too… what can happen in the world that can get gold above 1,000?
Meanwhile, this commodity looks better for bulls to play from a technical move.There’s so much room to move above, BUT it is best to wait for a confirmed bounce off that nice trend line that started since mid-August of 2008.There’s one problem with this commodity- not that many great companies to invest in this sector …
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/1a365963e9c340edc1352bd63c4c81cd.png
————————-
Other notes:
- PPT Score for GLD:1.62, last Friday it was at 3.51.Big drop.
- Oil right back at that 60 spot.It must consolidate here to be bullish.Too much “noise” on TV concerning this sector.
- Ags strong.Highlighted IPI unusual activity last Friday, stock moved 7% Monday with PPT-Hybrid score of +28%.
- “Vince Carter” screen pumped out 22 stocks yesterday!aap arrs asia azo cern coms cree int mfe mvsn nktr orly palm pas pbg pzza rvbd sgp smg tklc tndm twx urs
5-day chart
3-month chart
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
5 Comments
Two Chinese Fortune Cookies…May 18, 2009 – 3:34 pm
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/fortunecookies2.bmp
So, I was at this Chinese restaurant eating this wonderful and tasty chicken with cake noodle, and some other random green vegetables and stuff.The place is called “Royal Palace,” and it’s in some ugly beat up building.Hey, they even serve your food on plastic white plates, you know, the one with the red designs around the edge; the bathroom ain’t great either, I mean the urinal is about 3 inches away from the sink, so I felt even more dirty after washing my hands.The waitress could have been a little more friendlier too.But that’s okay, I mean, despite eating in a ”royal palace”, the food was great.Well, that was until I finished it off with a customary fortune cookie.I actually had two fortune cookies because my girlfriend doesn’t eat them.She claims it’s not a cookie, and so she will be eating a lie.Um… What the heck?Anyway, I break open the first one.In great anticipation I pull out the little white paper and read it.It says… “That wasn’t chicken.”
Well that sucks. Tasted pretty good to me.Anyway, with my stomach turning a little, I break the second one open, hoping it has something better to say. I pull out the little paper and it says…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/259e9586df77f3ca7dcba7358274cfec.png
… awesome!I leave a tip, and I take my queen to the beach.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/a7061d87791145d5e1c20ad16acee6f6.pngLFC, CNTF, SNDA, BIDU, ACH, CTRP (?), GA, FMCN
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/978c21acc00f43144dd75a91d8bff7e4.png SPWRA, NCTY, ZNH, CHNR, FEED,
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
7 Comments
Ags and School Stocks Trying to Breakout: STRA, APOL, IPI, POTMay 15, 2009 – 4:02 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/99a31417466bcb7677ecb9e01daa81a3.png
I detected strength in Ags and Education/School stocks on a few screens.Leading the way for school/education stocks are STRA and APOL which had fine intraday patterns verses ESI and EDU which were lagging.The relatively smaller plays, like LOPE and LINC had little love.APOL had a nice jump in its “PPT-Hybrid” score two days ago.
As for the Ags/Fertz, the leading stock in that sector these past few sessions has been IPI.We never mention IPI without mentioning POT which has been extending its rally above its buy-point at 90.IPI is trying to follow, as it is testing that key 28 level.
Continue to use STRA/APOL and IPI/POT as your correlation stocks.
——————————————————————-
Here’s the Duke Statue LiveCam, if you want to see random tourist… http://www.honolulu.gov/multimed/waikiki.asp
Duke Paoa Kahinu Mokoe Hulikohola Kahanamoku (August 24, 1890 – January 22, 1968) is generally regarded as the person who popularized the modern sport of surfing. He was also an Olympic champion in swimming.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
IPO Watch: Digital Globe (DGI) versus GeoEye Inc (GEOY)May 14, 2009 – 5:54 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/a7e14563d671ba408aab35a6396fd30a.jpg
A rare IPO… this ain’t 2006 anymore, where everyone with an idea was going public.Anyway, what’s there to know about Digital Globe?Well, three things:
1)they provide images to Google Earth and Microsoft’s Virtual Earth… two relatively under the radar ground-breaking technologies.It’s the kind of technology that 20 years from now will be the standard in some kind of important area in life, kind of like how 20 years ago no one had a cellphone.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/51e679313604bb1eb66af738901afb7b.png
2)Digital Globe (DGI) and GeoEye (GEOY) are the only two companies that own this commercial type satellites.So basically, it’s a duopoly.We’re all still waiting for Google to make this stuff profitable… probably when they start moving R&D away from social networking projects and start investing in these more complex imaging/virtual projects.Anyone else think 1984 was a good book?
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/76d4f6a60e41c88f77a90d08eb7b0a53.png
3) Like GEOY, DGI will take on a dramatic road.This past Tuesday, GEOY’s stock dropped over -20% at one point after news that some of its images were not taking color shots.Did you see that massive volume attack on that selloff?!Picky picky.Investors are real picky.here's the original scoop on GEOY]… isn’t it interesting that that news would be leaked 2 DAYS BEFORE Digital Globe’s ipo?Hmmmm.DGI is playing hardball, in my conspiracy driven opinion.Well, like I said, DGI can’t escape the drama either- basically any money poured into DGI this summer will be on pure speculation… let’s see, they have 2 satellites in orbit, and this fall (!) they are sending another one up there since one of the two is about to stop working.In other words, this satellite must launch.A simple delay in this launch will punch investors in the scrotum.If it does launch, then so will the stock.
Yeah, so here we go GEOY and DGI.It’s nice to invest in duopolies, like Coke vs Pepsi, and monopolies like NetFlix, so this one should be interesting- I mean, since we are already nationalizing everything, I think it’s a good time to bet against privacy… GO SATELLITES GO!
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
VIX refuses 20s for now. Solars hit. STP, SPWRA, YGE, NILE, ZNH, FLWS, LULU, HANSMay 13, 2009 – 4:12 pm
As you know, I’ve been dumping longs and moving to shorts ever since the VIX hit my medium term transition target of <34.When it got too close to 30, I dumped almost all longs.This is the hardest part that many traders have… transition from short to long and vice-versa.I can never tell you the exact top/bottom, but if the VIX gets to a level where I feel people are getting too complacent, then I’ll make the transition… transitions can take days, but usually I’m not too early.
Sectors I’ve been eying to short are retail and energy, more specifically, online-retail/travel and solar-energy.To give you some ideas try…
NILE, ZNH, FLWS (too late), LULU.Avoid shorting stocks like HANS, GMCR.They are BOTD candidates, so they can cause trouble to shorts.
Energy, you know the solar names.They sure are getting hit:
STP -14%, SPWRA -7%, YGE -14% are top 3 swing shorts.I haven’t shorted these yet.
Going back to the VIX, it only went up 5%, but notice the intraday trend is up, so I expect it to go higher in a few days.However, a slight pullback closer to 33 would be another good entry to add to shorts, but if it does dip past 30, then it’s time to redraw our “vix levels.”
Aloha!
-gio-
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
16 Comments
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Note to self… QSII, TEVA, SNDA, OSTK, GMCR, FLWS, GEOYMay 12, 2009 – 4:45 pm
Nothing much to say about today’s tape, other than the divergence in some of the major indexes.Commodities seem to be heating up, with gold moving, but silver moving faster.
Notes:
[*]GMCR had some profit-taking today throughout the day after re-testing highs.Closed at 80, sold half yesterday at 84.[*]OSTK shorts are working.Target still single digits.[*]FLWS sold out at loss -7%[*]GEOY not a good sign for leadership index.Can’t wait for DGI ipo this Thursday.DigitalGlobe and GeoEye essentially operate a duopoly in the United States.Google owns GEOY.GEOY’s earnings last night.[*]HUM approaching short sale point <30[*]VIX down relatively hard for a <1 point move on SPX.Bounced off 31.50, so getting ready for next wave of short setups.My “Vince Carter” Screen spit out 3 stocks today:QSII (PPT Rec: Sell), TEVA (PPT Rec: Sell), SNDA (PPT Rec: Buy)…I feel like an idiot for selling QSII.
Feel accomplished:2 things I did today that improves me…
[*]added 2 gb of RAM to one of my computers.Works conspicuously faster!Will add 4 more later.[*]Subscribed to Pandora.com, internet radio.Hat-tip to @jrroche
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
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The Fly versus MortalsMay 11, 2009 – 5:43 pm
A video of traders giving The Fly investing advice
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
This week’s plays: HUM, NFLX, LFT, BBBB, JOSB, GMCR, ACM, THOR, LINCMay 11, 2009 – 7:22 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/dd8d5f64fbe7e863a24bf16166f6ea79.jpg
Leaders in trouble:NFLX (short pick), LFT, BBBB, JOSB
Leaders showing strength:GMCR (earnings star), ACM (earnings star)
The Vince Carter:THOR
Day-tradable:
[*]Solars:Play the intraday reversal on STP, SPWRA, use FSLR for direction[*]Tech:Play the intraday reversal on semis[*]Short aggressive on high volume reversal:ARST, JJSF (or whatever volume on this), PNRA (showed weakness Friday),[*]Energy:Play intraday reversal on HK, GMXR, PDEUnder your radar:NRGP (detected unusual activity), LINC (crazy earnings. Looks better than LOPE, and will eclipse STRA in price performance.Great earnings: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG43437220090506?rpc=44 )
It looks like on of those “build up your shorts” kind of week.In the event of a correction, I suggest you screen for 70% from 52-high with high hybrid-weekly.That should populate a list of trash stocks that moved up with the overall market, and if you’re heavy long, then short these.
Two things to consider from last week:
-Nasdaq up for 8 weeks straight, with last week at one of it’s BEST volume weeks yet
- However, leadership stocks were lagging AND microcaps were leading.It’s okay to have BOTH move up, but when laggards lead while leaders retrace, then you know the “dumb” money is being sucked in.I’m going classic here since VIX has been breaking down in an obscure fashion.
Picture above is a picture I took on the East side of the island.After 6pm, the beach is empty.Perfect for landscape photography.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
2 Comments
Dow to 40kMay 8, 2009 – 6:11 pm
Market ends week up 4%.Only 370% more to hit the 40,000 mark.Why not?Haha.You realize, I am kidding right?I think what’s been bothering me lately is the thought that the VIX looks it will be heading to the 20s.Hmmmm.I’m not too sure about that.We did hit a medium term short-sale trigger point (VIX <34) that I’ve been watching, so I did beging to scale in.Nothing great, just across a few sectors… fertz (TNH), online retail (OSTK), and re-entered airlines (ZNH).
Still holding the bear-killing coffee stock… GMCR.We hit my short term 80 target today, and I’m going to raise it to 82.After 82 I will scale out, with next sell >85 or <78.I think people will start thinking “triple digits” on GMCR and that’s when the profit-taking starts.Meanwhile, GMCR’s little brother, PEET looks like it’s trying to break out of 30.If it cannot within the next few days, I will short PEET as a hedge to GMCR longs.Just a little idea for yah.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/p/peet
New targets:
SFLY = 14
FLWS = 4
Have a good weekend.Special shout-out to the PPT Traders for slapping the market up side the head, Rafer Alston style!
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
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Casino StocksMay 6, 2009 – 5:21 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/333f4bdcded168c5131d7dac88f40978.jpg
Lot of people playing around with cheap ugly beat-up nasty stocks lately.We call these “casino-stocks” and you better treat them like that.A lot of the iBC entourage have been hitting home runs in some of these plays, but just remember they are ahead of the game of most traders, and so I can say with confidence they know how to get in and out of these plays with precision.This is just a note for those who are NEW to playing these super fast moving micro-caps.
[*]Position Size = small…you see a stock rise 30%, then another 20%, you are now losing control so you jump in.Okay, fine we’ll play with momentum strategies.However, always remember just as fast a stock moves up, they will likely move down just as fast.You do not want to go more than 1/2 of what you’re used to investing in normal sized cap stocks.[*]Timing= quick, very quick, more quick than you are used to …Remember, momentum traders build position as momentum increases.That means, no “hindsight” trading, just keep building position at a comfortable pace.Volume will come in “waves” in these junk-stock-squeezes.Finding an exit point is even more critical.Some of these stocks can be up 15% intraday, then close down -10%.Sheesh.[*]Effectiveness= low… playing fast short squeezes and momentum on micro-caps (or worse, penny stocks… NASTY) is certainly a type of trade, but their occurrence is very rare and thus is not a strategy you want to specialize in, especially if you’re new to trading.Find balance in your portfolio, like using only 1/5 or 1/10 for higher risk plays… for example, Alphadawg doesn’t play any of these stocks and yet he is destroying the S&P with normal plays.Although I am totally for finding rare short-squeezes in beat down sectors, I am highly against penny-stocks, I loathe them with a passion.I find people who buy tiny-cap stocks under a buck are easily manipulated, are in for the cheap and quick thrill, and have sad sex lives.Please don’t ask any of us about a penny-stock.[*]How to Play = putting all the above together, to sum up these trades, you have to be very patient in your entry point and quick in your exits.Keep position size relatively low and EXPECT to lose on them.I like going into a high risk trade with that low expectation because it keeps your emotions in control, for example, when I play options on earnings plays I write the whole thing as a loss before the market opens.Remember if you are young, then the most effective way to be a trader is to stay in the game so don’t lose that competitive advantage you have over other traders.Nevertheless, I am not against people swinging for home-runs every now and then.Right now we have some epic squeezes going on, but please please please know you’re exit strategy.Don’t just jump in because someone else did. It’s all about experience here.I think you watch guys on iBC like CA, RC and Danny swing for stocks like CAR, XTXI, FTK and it’s spectacular.But they know how to play with the fire without getting burned.
Congrats to all who have been banking coin on these plays (there’s a number of you on the PPT), just keep things in perspective.All these stocks will be hit, and they will be hit hard.Until then, keep milking it.
… just a friendly reminder from your iBC neighborhood watch.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
3 Comments
Community ReportMay 5, 2009 – 5:05 pm
Congrats to today’s best calls and trades on the PPT…http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=XTXI
XTXI ownage by @jnuts. Stock up 26% today, and 125% in 3 days.Wow, jnuts you really are nuts.
Players:
XTXI +26% today @Mets57 +47% realized <24 hours.
XTXI @nation81
XTXI @jnuts still holding
Honorable mention:
CAR +47% today @ChartAddict
FTEK +13.45% today @Fly
… I can’t keep up with you guys! Go go go.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
7 Comments
I thought the Bulls lost to the Celtics?May 4, 2009 – 2:55 pm
What is going on in the market today?I thought the Bulls lost to the Celtics already.Market is on fire.
Is today’s tape fueled by the bulls?Yes, but mostly no.To me it feels like another extension on the rally due to weak players:
1) weak shorts covering along the tail of the rally.I call them rats.
2) foolish longs jumping on buying anything “just because”
… usually this combo leads to a turning point on the tape.Probably the worst thing about this extended rally above Dow 8,000 is that it has been given that extra push by penny-looking stocks and beat down commodities.If you’re long, do so for a trade, but be quick to take most profits.If you are short… well, I just hope you are averaging in.Shorts need to “buy-time” by averaging in in smaller increments.
In a real bull rally, you want leaders moving the tape. Here is what is troubling for me today.Look at the party going on in some ugly stocks:
CROX +32%
JASO +14%
YGE +13%
FTK +21%
And finally, the VIX is virtually flat!I had VIX <34.50 as my short the market entry point, but this 35 spot is stubborn.I’m not really sure how much more the bulls can take this thing higher so I will split my entry points to two areas.One under 34.50, and the other at 33.80.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/4fb21665dbd3d8fe48d19102d3873ea5.png
Wedging into a “big move.”The VIX ETN is making the VIX harder to read.Try to adjust to it.
I’ll be tweeting the Lakers Rockets game today. I predict Odom goes crazy.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
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Pro Picks from the PPT CommunityMay 4, 2009 – 8:26 am
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/d01f485dddb0bca5e501271406dcdd95.png
Too many good trades to mention!
Instead of going fishing at the beach, I went fishing into the PPT’s notes page (picture above. click to preview) and found some great calls by the PPT Community.I’ve been a part of many trader-communities, and I can honestly say the PPT group has a very high trader IQ.Motley Fool CAPS forums is fool of fools, I mean new traders.Yahoo Message Board… well, you know how toxic and immature that place is.Scottrade Community has too many panties, or traders stuck in the year 2007 stocks. StockTwits is great for day-traders, but you can get lost in swing calls.
Here is a sample of some top calls from the PPT Community in the past few weeks.I’ll be keeping an eye out for more picks this week http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
Long HA - iWin. 3/10, out4/17
This stock was surely a winner as airline stocks took flight for an insane squeeze.Awesome play iWin.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/a4ca5252dcc7bcff86c00bd41e42e0d0.pnghttp://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/1b7120994c12be7610928515811e8462.png
Long PCX - TheFly
What made this trade great was Fly’s sector wide call on commodities, in particular energy.I was leaning bearish on energy, but man did that squeeze prove me wrong!I know Fly’s trade on this was “market timing”, but look at the “charting” and classic technical squeezes on PCX…
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/0f9541df9a733b04c7e51518abf557bd.png
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/31e5ae0bbd53d46a27a15c7bca52ec21.png
“Long COIN” - jsawyer 4/24
jsawyer made a nice call on COIN which was consolidating for an extended time under a buck.What impresses me most about this trade was his entry just before it exploded.Those lotto tickets cost him .88 cents.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/99fe581160cc109f03ba14ac61bf7696.png
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/e3896cb3b03411606b05bfc3cb5093d1.png
Long CLF - Fly, RedFrog, Nation81, VCUTrader
Sorry no chart. But congrats to these guys for playing this commodity stock, CLF, on rising volume.Great swing play.
Long GMCR - Gio, jnuts
One of my most watched stock, and best trades so far this year.What I liked about the GMCR trade was that I predicted it would hit the IBD100 and it did get way up there, and I also used the PPT fundamental scores to bet againstBarrons who were very bearish heading into earnings… oops for Barrons.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/c9ea63c550e666c343666cdd005c9974.png
Long CDNS - Fly in 4/22 @ 4.85, partial out at 5.46 5/1
What I like about Fly’s calls is that he uses fundamentals.In picking CDNS as a long, he used correlation fundamentals, observing that CDNS relationship with TSM would help them greatly.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/6d1d2e1bf0cc96a32ee3e373d9339237.png
Long RUTH - Ragin 4/23
Ragin gets the “pick of the month” award for April on his RUTH pick.Talk about a wonderful squeeze.Nothing but green bars and BOP and massive volume.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/fdc2e8080f327815a270b8438a299213.png
Long SFLY - 3/17
I used fundamentals to make this call.SFLY hit my radar a few years ago, so I’ve been watching its book value to determine when it would be cheap.In the PPT I mentioned it to be a buy-out candidate once the big companies start using cash.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/9ee83b2dd66fb199b6d938d7ca4ec429.png
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/960655be75ba20e2e1fc5fc3815d500d.png
Long NGAS- TheFly
Broker A’s current pick is this fast moving energy stock.Again, although he’s not much of a chartist, look at all those bullish flag breakouts.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/0feb9836bf366b20c63c1f380f9d5fef.png
Most of these picks were from last week!I think having a community of real traders can really upgrade your trading performance.Even if you didn’t follow anyone into these trades, it’s nice to ask other traders what they think and to offer a stock tip yourself.
If you like StockTwits, following people’s trades, or “thinking out-loud” your trades, then the PPT’s “Wall” is probably something you will find very useful.For those of you subscribing to the PPT, I strongly suggest you participate in this feature.You wil definitely make your money back and much more.
Basically, the Wall is the PTT’s composite brain power of all the members in the PPT.I like to think of it as the central nervous system connected to “the brain”.Those who use StockTwits will especially find using the Wall (community notes) easy to use.You simply enter a ticker, then add a note.The wall will then update notes chronologically to a public notes place and to your own notes page.So, a few days later you can check up on your call and see if you were wrong or right… kind of like StockTwits.Think of the PPT’s Wall/Community Notes as a swing trader’s version of StockTwits (which is predominantly day trading notes).
Anyway, keep up the good work guys and girls!Now go make some money.
-gio-
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
5 Comments
Joe Andrad3’s Riddle SolvedMay 1, 2009 – 4:16 pm
Today’s tape was soooo boring, I decided to go ahead and give the 10-balls riddle a try.Took me about 30 minutes to solve.Slipping there.I find exercising your mind with probability can help you with trading.Well, we never go and calculate exact probabilities when we trade a stock, but we do have a pseudo-probability-version floating somewhere in the subconscious of our minds before we enter and exit a trade.Kind of hard to explain.
This riddle was given to us by Joe Andra3’s hedge fund manager peer:
Riddle: You have 10 balls and they all look the same. One of the balls weighs either more or less than the other 9, but the other 9 are of equal weight. You have a scale and 3 chances to determine which ball is different from the rest. How so? The manager told me that this is a probability question. (Note:it’s one of those old fashion justice-scales, the ones where you weigh one item against the other)
I solved it using brute force conditional statements.Yay!Hat tip to Dr. Incognito.Every indented “if” is a new weigh, so I’m allowed 3 indentations.Oh yeah, and “!=” is another way to write “not equal to”
Find Q, where Q = odd ball
Given 10 balls:a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i,j
Create 4 groups:
group1 = abc
group2 = def
group3 = ghi
group4 = j
// Step 1:weigh abc vs def.Gives us two scenarios…
if (abc = def)
{
//it’s in ghi OR it’s j; weigh 2 balls from group ghi
if (g>i)//it’s either g or i
// weigh g or i with normal ball ‘a’
{ if g = a, thenQ = i
if g != a, then Q = g
}
if (g=i) // it’s either h or j
{if (g=h) then Q = j
}
if (g!=h) then Q = i
}
if (abc < def)
{
Q != j, ghi // rule out those hairy balls
// weigh abc vs normal group ghi
if (abc > ghi)// then Q is heavy, and in group abc
{
if (a > b) then Q = a // heaviest ball
if (a = b) then Q = c
if (a < b) then Q = b
if (abc < ghi) // then Q is light, and in group abc
if (a < b) then Q = a
if (a = b) then Q = c
if (a > b) then Q = b // lightest ball
}
… tricky!The trick was to find out if the odd-ball Q was either heavier or lighter.
Here’s Doc’s answer:
Separate them into 3 groups.
Weigh the first two groups. If they are equal its one in the last group.
Weigh two of the three balls in the last group. If they weigh the same its the last one. If they weigh different amounts, weigh one against the other one in that group.
——————————————————–
If the first two groups weigh different amounts, weigh one group against the last group. At this point you have one more try but you know whether the ball is heavier or lighter. Weigh two balls from the lighter or heavier group and you have your answer.
… have a good weekend.I still haven’t solved to 2358=36 impossible riddle.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
11 Comments
Green Mountain Coffee… never tried it, but wowApril 30, 2009 – 4:21 pm
Nothing like waking up to the smell of Green Mountain.Woke up to see my GMCR longs are up huge!+37%
Awesome report.http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFBNG49076520090429?rpc=44
I could have told you their K-cups growths are insane,which is neat bcuz I have’t even seen the product in Hawaii.
Right now I am t yping with ONE hand.My shoulder is major bus-up.I gotta go back to the doctor or the ortho, cuz this pain is ridiculous.I’m bout to take the whole bottle of Naproxen already.
Hmmm, what can I type with one hand that won’t take too long…
If you liked my anti-Barrons GMCR play, check out PEET.The PPT detects improving internals on this related peer company.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/f5e5bf91a9eb5fba239ccb241f8fcb35.jpg
On my way to StarBux… gonna tip them big for losing all their customers to Green Mountain. Lol.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
16 Comments
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VIX 35.xxApril 29, 2009 – 3:52 pm
Market is up about 2.5% after Fed announcement, while VIX only down -5%.I would bet against the crowd if the VIX were down -10%, but it seems like it is stabilizing around 36 heading into the close so rally should give up gains.VIX was as low as 35.37 today, so I will use that as my short entry point:34.50 - 35.37.Other than that, it feels like the rally is running low on fuel probably because we’ve been stuck in a neutral zone for the past week.I’m slowly building a short bias into this uncertainty.
Then again, I like shorting into news rallies, so I’ll go ahead and bet against oil as we move into driving season. Shorted PDE after a light volume break above down trending 200 MA.I will short the other half below it.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/5de3f3c75faaf4cc567365adfc28b3f5.png
Leaders down on today’s Fed spike:NFLX, GMCR
Oh wait a minute, market reversing into the close here.Moves fast.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
7 Comments
Congrats to Onyx for winning Director of NFL FandemoniumApril 28, 2009 – 9:19 pm
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
My good friend just won this competition Monster Worldwide was sponsoring (http://nfl.monster.com/).I couldn’t believeit, but when I saw his video it made me laugh.It’s weird seeing people you know on TV.Just wanted to give him a shout-out for repping it for Hawaii. Onyx is a geek, well, we like to say genius.Radford High baby!He is Mr. Stats, although he was never good at algebra.He gets…
NFL Kickoff: Act as backstage talent wrangler at the 2009 NFL Kickoff concert (Sept. 2009) International Series: Participate in on-field introductions at a game in London (Oct. 2009) NFL Thanksgiving: Serve as an on-field broadcast liaison for NFL Network’s Thanksgiving Game (Nov. 2009) Pro Bowl: Select a play from the sidelines during the 2010 Pro Bowl (Jan. 2010) Super Bowl: Join the coin toss ceremony at Super Bowl XLIV (Feb. 2010) $100,000 “Admittedly, we are a bit football deprived here in Hawaii, but that has never diminished my love for the sport of football,” said Herrera. “I seriously do have ‘fandemoniumfever’ – that intense passion and drive for the game. Put simply, being selected the Director of Fandemonium is a dream job for me – one I’ve been ‘training’ for since I was a kid.”
I’m glad they picked him, he’s one of the funniest guys I know.Plus he helped me out big time on my history term paper in high school.See, I told you you would be paid back!
This is pretty exciting for me.I’ll see if he can give “theHawaiiTrader” and iBC a shout-out on TV.Lol.
Are all these campaigning helping Monster Worldwide?Looks like it so far…http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/m/mww
For those on the PPT, I added some stocks to watch on my list.There’s been a few good new leaders out there, and a few worth shorting.For example, be sure to keep JJSF on your radar.And STAR has been amazing (you can play the day-trade pullbacks, but go swing long on profit-taking).
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
6 Comments
Roundtrip ZNH -17% …this plane is all-busApril 27, 2009 – 4:43 pm
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/915cd05188bedad113d2767d181b166d.png
So this is how it feels.Feels good to make some calls again.I haven’t found any news as to why ZNH got slammed today.Maybe some of the investors read iBC?I didn’t have any time to cover any shorts because I was at the ER last night, had to bring in a friend- got home at 3am, and woke up about 10 mins ago (10am Hawaii Time).Anyway, flight ZNH still has some way to go down.I figure I have at least a 5% buffer to work with.Why am I willing to sacrifice 5%? Just look at the volume in the past 4 weeks, it’s quite pathetic.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/c199f96994705fbbfa68ab7b7a57ded5.jpg
This is the second time I went to the hospital for two different people this week.Now it’s my turn to go see the doctor.My shoulder is “all bus”.“All bus” is a term we use here to mean “messed up.”It originally was used to describe someone who is drunk.But now it can refer to anything- your face looks all-bus; like me bus-your-face?Why “bus”?Because we can’t really spell in Hawaii, or maybe they were too high or drunk to pronounce the “t”.Actually, although that maybe true, the word “bus” refers to our public transportation system TheBus.What was I originally talking about?Oh yeah, Chinese stocks… ZNH is all-bus.
Added to the longs list (with current PPT score):JJSF (3.09), EEFT (no score), ARST (2.70)
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Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
4 Comments
Roundtrip ZNHApril 24, 2009 – 6:47 am
I still haven’t solved that math riddle, and I pretty much gave up on it.Maybe if I was in high school I could do it, but like you all said, there’s probably a trick to it.If there is, I’ll introduce that kid to the floor.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/3ba9e2e526383072517fd36863f054df.png
New shorts:ZNH (13.30) @ 1/2
Been watching this one.Rallied nicely after digesting news that flights from mainland China to Taiwan began (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-12/15/content_10504688_1.htm).Since then ZNH stock flight was delayed until March after heavy turbulence in the market.
This is a plane, not a rocket ship, so why has it blasted off 80% in about one month. Ay yai yai.
Not even tables work.http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_sad.gif
2x1.52.5430.666667x1.6666672.66666750.40.6x1.680.250.3750.625x150.1333330.2xx110.181818x0.454545x10x0.30.5x7x0.428571x1.1428576x0.50.833333x1xx5823580.666667xx0.1333330.0833330.4x0.133333x0.050.25x0.0833330.05x1.5xx0.30.18752.5x0.833333x0.31250.60.3xx0.0750.3750.18750.125xx0.6250.31250.208333xx1.6666670.833333xx0.2083334x1.3333330.8x2.6666671.333333x0.533333x1.60.80.533333xx
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
20 Comments
Use 2 3 5 8 = 36April 23, 2009 – 3:53 pm
New longs:GMCR (53.50)
New shorts:NFLX (45.30)
This kid came up to me and gave me this math riddle.I spent an hour on it last night and I still couldn’t solve it.I feel like backhanding him.Anyway, if you know the answer, let me know because I won’t be able to sleep tonight if I don’t get it.
Use the numbers 2 3 5 8 to equal 36.
[*]You can only use x / + -[*]You can only use each number once[*]You can use them in any orderSo far I’ve got every other number possible.I used 5^2 +8 + 3 = 36, but apparently that’s cheating.
Just testing the waters here on NFLX and GMCR.Both are near their 52-highs.NFLX looks more toppy with that double top, while GMCR has increasing volume.Both are at 1/2 positions.My next entry to short NFLX is under 40.This is my second play on GMCR in the past 3 months.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
29 Comments
Gold Colored FishApril 22, 2009 – 5:40 am
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Had about five hours of sleep, more accurately, three quality hours of sleep.Why am I up already?I just ran for hours last night on the court and on the field, I’m supposed to be dreaming of Ms. Cali still, making sure I don’t hear my friend’s wake-up call because I am NOT going with him to fish at “the spot”. I check the clock on my phone, and it’s 8:00am… crap, too early.Wait a minute, no missed calls?I’m worried since I’m supposed to get a call by now.That fool, he probably is going down there by himself. I imagine the worst for him, so I clear up my schedule and call him up-
“Fool.Let’s go.”
We head down to his spot.The weather is perfect, but the hike down the cliffs to his fishing spot is extra tough, no thanks to all that running last night.This is why I don’t fish.It’s more economical for me to go down to Foodland and buy the dumb fish than to drive all the way to the East side, hike down a rock trail, and stand for hours in the sun holding a fishing pole waiting for some random fish to bite on my overpriced shrimp bait.Better yet, I’d rather head to the bowling alley and order my Furukaki Mahi Mahi already cooked and ready to eat.I’d bowl a few games and still get home early enough to get some work done, without a sunburn.
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We reach the bottom of the trail and the water is amazingly calm.I feel like a fool wearing a life vest.I told you, I was not going down there without a vest, so though I looked like a fool, I felt good inside knowing I kept my silent promise.It’s so hot though, and this vest is adding far too many degrees.Do I remove the hedge?The water looks so good.But it’s deceiving.If you fall and hit the rocks below, it doesn’t matter how good a swimmer you are if you’re knocked out.Kind of like market.Man, it’s too stinking hot.I take the vest off and throw it on the side.
We prep the bait.I’ve got a giant 14 foot pole, which is impossible to cast when you have a sprained shoulder.I really don’t belong here.Why am I here?I actually lied to myself, since I told myself last night there was no way I would go with Masaru down here.But he’s so stupid lately, and I’d feel even more guilty if anything happened to him.But that’s not what I told him when I decided to go.
“Masa, why are we here?This doesn’t bother you?”
“Gio, the way I see it is we have to face our fear.”
“That’s not what I was talking about.You know what I’m talking about.”
I don’t know if this guy has any common sense, is an idiot, or just recovers really really fast.It’s awkward being here after scattering his ashes near where we were fishing.It’s kind of gross actually.
He gets a phone call and it’s his wife.She finds out we went fishing near were Mel fell in.Crap, now we’re busted.We should have went fishing near the harbor.I knew I shouldn’t have came.
Every time we dropped the line in, we had a strike.Man I’m glad we came!Drop in, pull out, drop in, pull out.The fish were really biting there, which was strange.It was so strange, a nearby fisherman came near to us and was wondering why our spot was biting.I thought maybe because Mel hadn’t been here for weeks to catch all the fish.It was kind of nice.For a moment I was able to forget about him even though I was doing what he loved most.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/1c542e9dcf57f18abbf5ed5bd99efdb8.jpgUnfortunately, I kept catching our state fish (humuhumunukunukuapuaa) which we always throw back since it’s illegal to catch.Didn’t matter though, just the feeling of pulling the fish out the water was very rewarding.“One last cast, and whoever gets a fish first gets lunch.”We both end up losing our hooks and weights to the reef.Let’s bail.We head to Costco and since I caught more fish than him, I make him buy me a hot dog.Take that!
Why does this hot dog taste like fish?
I felt peace for the first time in a long time, even though if it was for a few minutes. That was kind of ironic since we basically argued the whole morning just for the sake of not wanting to agree with each other, on stuff like poker, basketball, Ms. Cali, and more poker… he was extra animated about that one for some reason.What it came down to thoughwas that we both missed Mel.That’s all.We know he’s missing out on a lot, and wish that he could be around to try out the new food in whatever new restaurant we discover.I kind of wish he was around so I can tell him I caught a double- that’s two fish on one line.He wouldn’t believe me.What on Earth?Did I just return to the spot that I swore I would never come back to?
“Hey Masa, I wonder what your brother must have been thinking while he was trying to stay afloat.”
“Gio, you think too deep on things.Let’s not…”
“Yeah, let’s not.”
I wasn’t supposed to be fishing yesterday, but I did.I completely went against myself, bet against myself, like a contrarian.It turned out to be a productive day, maybe not in the office, but at least in life. Oh yeah, I ended up adding to gold shorts (GG.Still holding EGO, GLD) .Gold is treated much like a life vest.The waters seem calm right now, so I take it off. When the real waves come, then I’m throwing it back on.
So far, I’m beginning to think maybe Masaru is thinking more clearer than I am.Thecloser you get to your fears, the easier it is for you to jump over them.If you keep running, you’ll never get over them.Same with the market- There’s always an unexpected benefit when you hop over your market related fears.Problem is, I’m a little too beat up to jump right now. Aw man, now my phone smells like fish.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
10 Comments
VIX is too lowApril 20, 2009 – 8:40 am
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I sat there, wondering, just wondering looking at myself.I didn’t like it.I need to run this, what the heck.I grabbed my shoes and headed to the gym to meet the team.It was a disaster.I felt like I was Wade in every game against the Hawks this year… shut down.It’s never good though, since I run the point on my team, when I’m off, we have no chance.I’m not the best player on the team, but I run the offense; I find out who has the hot hand and I feed them, I find out what the defense is and I dissect it, just like the market.We did not look like that team that won a record 10 straight in March.We were up anyway, but then people started getting stupid.I lost interest, my whole team loses interest.I’ve been losing interest in a lot of things faster than usual lately.
This is lame, we lost, and we quit because we almost get into a brawl.Kind of wish we did, maybe my insides will feel better if my outside gets worse.Please swing at me, it’s been a while.Nothing happens, just all talk.So, we head out to Pali and play some recreational soccer.I tell myself just run to run, and I end up doing all the scoring.My friend brings in a girl from Cali there, and she’s a beauty.Maybe that’s why I scored three goals. Later that night I text my friend to tell Ms. Cali she’s cute… something like that.She text me back her number.Yes! This night is going good.Ten minutes later I get another one- she has a boyfriend.How fitting.I respect that.I delete her number from my phone, even though it’s difficult to delete those eyes from my mind.
So now I’m home, every muscle in my body is aching, plus the feeling of rejection is a kick to the stomach.It’s almost 2 in the morning, and I’m purposely staying up so I can wake up in the afternoon because I know my friend is going to call me in the morning to go fishing down at Eternity Beach… I want to make sure I sleep through his call because that’s the same place where we scattered his brothers ashes.“Dude, you are not normal”I tell him.He takes it as a compliment.What an idiot.I’m not going down there unless I have a vest anyway.He swears he’ll jump in to save me if I fall off the cliff; I know he would.That’s why I won’t go.
Finally I shower to wash away all the filth on my body and mind.Only half works. I check out the market.Only half works there too. Volume looks horrible, and we’ve been drifting up for weeks.I’m kind of glad I was away from this. I tell myself I didn’t miss much.“You’re not normal either.”
Classic bull trap?Everything has been so classic, it’s almost like all the investors out there are out of character and moving the market on emotion.It’s been a reflection of me.An emotional mess acting out of character.Darn it, how do I undelete her number? So I check the VIX, and I can’t believe what I see.We actually hit my “greed level” in the mid 30s. It’s amazing how complacent people are getting with this rally to 8k.It’s been an epic one, but joining the party here only means you’re about 10 minutes earlier than the cops.There is no wall of worry, if there were, the VIX wouldn’t have broken down so quick.The only thing warring with me is the fact that we have been consolidating before every next leg up, which is normally very bullish; but that’s okay… there’s one thinglearned this weekend:even though you spot a girl who looks good, smells good, and is bilingual, it doesn’t mean anything if you’re “too late.” This rally looks pretty, smells good, and sets off a positive tone for global markets.Oh, dangerous.I’ll take this low VIX number as my trump card. Still holding it though.All I need is one nice spike down and I’m shorting aggressively.Yet, I hold back a little on purpose.It’s quite obvious I’m not in the proper emotional or mental state to be trading. Paranoia maybe?Or just the fact that my trading instincts haven’t fully returned yet.But hey, at least I’ve trained my eyes over the years to recognize enough patterns beneath the tape to know what’s happening in the market and how to react.I tell myself there’s no need to be in a rush trading this market.In fact, we coined a phrase within my circle:“Fish another day.”We never say it out loud though, but we all know when each other is thinking it.
Shoot, it’s 3 am.I’m tired.I probably won’t get your call tomorrow, but buddy, you’re a fool going down there to fish where we scattered his ashes. It doesn’t stop there though… I think it’s a little foolish to fish for longs here too.Wear a vest, or fish another day.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
17 Comments
Thank you iBC…April 15, 2009 – 9:46 am
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It’s late, I can’t sleep. I’m a bit overwhelmed by all the encouraging words from everyone. Just wanted to let you know I’m going to print it out and share it with my buddy this weekend. Some of you have some amazing words and advice. I’m so floored. For that, I thank each and everyone of you, those who commented, and those who just thought about me and Mel and his family and those close to him during this strange time. It really is strange. I’ve had a little stage fright coming back, but you’ve all been great.
Again, thank you…
Ass Napkin Mike Says:
Go Lakers!
You know what Im trying to say, Gio.
… Go Celtics. I know what you’re saying Mike. We’re rivals on the court, allies on the street.
Anon Says:
When I had to struggle with obstacles of all kinds, when I had to very strenuously pit myself against my existence, when the strength of my thinking and feeling and the strength of my will and my body had threatened to fail, when morale and all hope had started to sink and everything in myself became very and unendingly difficult for me to persevere in life and to single-mindedly do my duty and fulfill my responsibilities, then I searched for my most secret spiritual-fine-sensitive-feelings and feelings, which, as a very quiet breath, whispered to me that there are unutterably few happy and content human beings on this planet since they all are plagued by immeasurable grief and sorrow as well as problems and worries which they are unable to get under control.
The cognition grew always within myself - how very much worse off than I these human beings must be. Yet, like I, they all can only find the way out of their entire misfortune when they effect good in themselves, when they dedicate themselves to contemplation and through this dedicate themselves to the source of cognition which brings a release from all miseries and ills, from grief, sorrow, problems and worries. This cognition lies in the real observation of all things, that all is worth living, the negative as well as the positive, and that only the living out of the good as well as the bad makes life worth living and brings immeasurable learning experiences, events and values.
The mission of life, namely to evolve in the consciousness, and the fulfillment of this mission is the source from which those who are sorrowful, grief-stricken, downcast with problems and under work pressures, constantly draw new strength, moments of quiescence and recuperation, joy, love, harmony and peace. That is my cognition and it teaches me that when good is consciously effected then the good becomes all-pervasive.
… deep stuff Anon. You’re right. A common thread with all champions and heroes, is that they all had their hearts broken, they all lost, and they all have scars. I find the most powerful people are the ones that risen from the fire.
The Chart Addict Says:
Happy you are back. Look forward to your fellowship.
… I think you came in time CA. You’re a motivation to all the young and zealous traders out there. Let’s make history.
lieutenantfox Says:
Gio-
Mel lives on, my friend. I can imagine, too, that he doesn’t want you dwelling on the hurt. He knows how you feel about him. Make each day count for Mel. God bless bro. Lets all raise our glass to Mel… a life well lived. Peace.
… thanks Fox. I guess making every day count is hard when you you’re up all night dwelling on what-ifs. Mel liked chocolate shakes, I think I’ll have one.
Juice Says:
Often, the best among us go far too young and too soon … and leave to us invaluable messages and lessons to make the best use of our lives; to be a living example of what they have left with us and thereby their life has not been wasted, as our thoughts, feelings and actions have become a living tribute.
…“tribute”, good word. Makes me always wonder, “what is in a name”? We should all stop and ask ourselves, “If I were to die tomorrow, what would the world think of me?” If you’re answer doesn’t come out the way you want it to, then maybe it’s time to change something about your life.
alphadawgg Says:
Gio,
Thanks for taking the time to share that with us. It couldn’t have been said any better. Hang in there, bud.
…It took me almost 5 hours to finally hit “submit.” I wasn’t sure I wanted to share it, but putting it down in words has helped. Plus, everyone has been so encouraging. It’s easier to “hang on” when you have so many people holding you up.
boca Says:
Glad to see you back Gio. There is no greater sadness in life than the pain of losing someone you love, someone who was a big part of your life, especially losing someone far younger and more suddenly than you thought.
I still feel my daughter’s presence looking on over my shoulder at what I’m doing, still feel her love and support.
Mel is still there with you, but in a different realm, in a different way. We suffer when the waves of grief wash over and through us, trying to find ways to cope. My workaholism is an attempt to cope, sometimes it works, sometimes not. You will find your way over time. Sending you waves of support from over here … give yourself time.
…Thank you Boca for being real. A mother’s love is one the strongest forces in the world. Living for your daughter is proof of that. I can never say I know how you feel, but seeing someone further down the tunnel makes me feel closer to the light.
Woodshedder Says:
Take care of yourself brother. In time, things will develop meaning again.
… thanks Wood. The nice thing is that I get to re-prioritize everything. Some things probably shouldn’t have that much meaning anyway.
Cuervos Laugh Says:
Still praying for ya Gio.
Take your time and thanks for sharing this with all of us.
…thanks for your prayers.
PoorOkie Says:
Welcome back - we’ve missed you around here.
... glad to be back. I’m not totally back, but the part that is really appreciates it.
Controller Says:
I’m going to kiss my husband and kids right now. Thank you for your real perspective.
… I feel better already. Thanks Controller. You get it.
Veritas5 Says:
Well said, Gio. Thank you for sharing. It makes you reconsider pretty much everything.
…Thanks Veritas. You get it.
Heckler511 Says:
Sorry about your friend GIO. Totally understand, but glad you’re back.
…thanks for sticking around Heckler. We’ve traded together for some time now.
dr_nate Says:
Thanks for sharing Gio. I don’t know you that well, but I can tell you’re a good person. Glad to have you back.
… thanks Doc. I think the same thing about many people that comment here on iBC, except DevilDog and Tim Sykes. Just kidding. Actually, no, my patience would run out with Tim.
The Contractor Says:
Great post, gio. All too often when tragedy strikes it’s so easy to lose perspective and become bitter and angry. I hope you find a way to not let this happen to you and it sounds like you have a firm grasp of what is important in life so I hope you never let it go. Peace to you and may you find solace in living your life in a manner that would make Mel proud.
…. Thanks Contractor. I go in and out the anger phase every now and then. But it gets me nowhere. Peace to you too my friend.
pinoy Says:
Gio,
Sorry about your friend. Time heals all pain.
-pinoy
… Salamat po Pinoy.
arth Says:
great post man
… thanks arth.
Prospectus Says:
Gio-
There’s nothing anyone can say or do that will make the pain go away. The only thing that will help at all is time.
I was a youth leader in our church, and was close to one of the teenage boys. He watched our kids, and they loved him. His mother was our family friend, and he was her only child.
One day about three years ago, out of nowhere, he decided to crash his car into a freeway bridge after a fight with a girlfriend. He was gone.
I blamed myself, too. I was supposed to be his leader, his mentor! I must have failed him if he did this. He had called me the night before, but I didn’t answer my phone because I was “too busy to talk”. I still regret that.
Like you say, I kept expecting him to show up one day, like it was all a big joke. I felt compelled to visit the crash site–it could have been the wrong car, couldn’t it? I saw fragments of melted CD’s that had his handwriting on them. I saw the molten engine block and some small remnants of the car, but it was his. I couldn’t accept that he was gone until I “saw it” for myself. There was no open casket for obvious reasons. I was one of the main speakers at his funeral, where we celebrated his life, but I cried. It devastated me. His mother almost didn’t make it, honestly.
After that, my youth leader days were done. I couldn’t do it anymore. It knocked the wind and the life out of me, in that way.
So I understand what you are going through.
Here are some words that won’t help how you feel right now. But they are true, and over time your feelings will grow to match them more and more:
*It wasn’t your fault. Unless you can see the future, and unless you actively wished him harm, none of it is your fault.
*In time, the pain will become bearable–but it will probably take at least a year. Your time to heal will likely be sooner than that of his wife, though. Use any strength you find to support his family.
*Mel would not want you to stop living. He would want you to live all the more. Do so as your heart is able.
Best wishes, Gio
…. I’m speechless Prospectus. You’re experience has obviously turned you into a wiser man. You pretty much nailed it. Everytime I drive by the East shore near the cliffs, I can’t look at the waves crashing on the rocks without thinking about Mel. I get mad at myself, at other people, and it really consumes you. Then I pretend that it’s all a big joke. Strange how we act. I will remember your story and your wise words and use them as my stepping stone.
alf44 Says:
Always loved this quote…
Life is full of misery, loneliness and suffering…and it’s all over much too soon !
~ Woody Allen ~
——————–
Not making light of your tragedy in any way…I’ve been where you are.
There is more truth in that quote than may be first apparent.
Try to smile…do it for Mel !!!
GLTY
…Thanks. I’ve been smiling much more lately. http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
Tilo Says:
Good to have you back, Gio. Take good care.
…Thank you Tilo. Take care.
Jakegint Says:
Your friend’s passing has left a hole…
Now you must fill it up, with bright things,
In his memory, and for yours.
Bright things to make a whole.
_______
My deepest sympathies for your loss, Gio.
…Thanks Jake. I will quote you to his brother. His hole is much bigger.
The Fly Says:
Everyone missed your VIX mastery. Glad to see you back.
… Thanks Fly. Thanks for slapping some sense in me. I needed it. Life is full of volatility.
j0sh1ngU Says:
Often times the best thing to do is to live your life the way he would want you to. Sorry for your loss touching post. good points. Hope you recover Gio. Take your time as life passes all of us fast and especially those we love most
… Thanks Josh.
mrkcbill Says:
Gio,
You have a gift,please start posting again. You have a huge following of people that really care about you.
…Thanks mrkcbill. It’s amazing, isn’t it? I never thought I could have this many friends from iBC. I’ve never met any of you in person, and yet I feel I’ve known some of you for some time. Maybe it’s because we can’t see, so we judge by our minds and not with our eyes. Look at all the support I’m getting now! It’s overwhelming.
elditto Says:
Thanks Gio. Nice to have you back. I’m so sorry for your loss, have tears here. Your post does your friend a great memory.
Joel
…thanks Joel. I’ll share your kind words with his family. I think it will make them happy.
Employee8 Says:
A touching eulogy ….
These words;
“That must be the most painful thing that could ever happen to someone. To lose your spouse… ”
brought back the tears again …
Time and memories will help to heal the wound but you’re right. Your perspective on life will never be the same.
So sorry for your loss.
… thanks Employee8. I hope I didn’t bring back too much pain. I’ll admit, I don’t cry often in front of people, but sometimes, out of nowhere, I’ll look down and notice my papers are a little wet… I’ll touch my cheek, look at my hand and discover tears. Is that normal? I mean, that never happened before. It’s like the tears fall before I can feel sad.
Plasmahidef Says:
Gio,
I’m sorry to hear of your loss. My prayers for you and Mel’s family.
Regards.
…thank you for praying for us Plasmahidef.
Darius Says:
Im to young to have lost anyone close like you have, but I almost teared up at the end of reading that.I cant imagine losing someone that close to me. Im srry, but Im sure your sick of hearing that.
… Thanks Darius. You’re never too young to be close to anyone.
FastEddie Says:
Good to see you back Gio. You and your friend’s family have been in my prayers. We’ve all missed you around here. Take care and continue to enjoy the important things in life as Mel’s life continues on as a part of who you are everyday.
…Thanks Eddie. Hope to see you soon on the PPT. I’ll let them know you’ve been praying for them.
Blue Says:
Gio….
At least you are lucky enough to have had such a great friendship with someone as cool as Mel and still fortunate to have many other good friends who were also friends with Mel.
Some of us live life in a bunker. At least you’re out there and have good friends to share more good times with.
Life goes on…
-Blue
…Thanks Blue. You’ve been a good friend since WallStreak.
GW Says:
Welcome back kid. My condolences to you….
…Thanks GW.
Danny Says:
echoing the sentiments of everyone here in saying your were missed and that my thoughts are with you.
…Thanks Danny. How’s the vacation? Hopefully better than mine.
DPeezy Says:
Echoing Danny’s echoes of all the beautiful and important sentiments that have been conveyed through these comments.
May you find eventual healing through the cherished memories of your friend.
Welcome back; we’ve missed you.
..Thanks DPeezy. I never get tired of the echoes.
Billy Mays Says:
gio,
my sympathies on your loss.
…. Thanks Billy for coming out to leave a comment and a kind word.
Susannah Says:
Glad you’re back. I lost my 16 year old brother to a car accident when I was 19. He left me with a gift - I’m sure Mel has left you with this, too - a greater appreciation for life and more thanksgiving for small things that make our lives truly rich.
… I’m sorry to hear that Susannah. I hope you’re using your gift to the full. Mel left me with a lot to think about.
The Equalizer Says:
Condolences from another one of your formerly-lurking readers.
Your blog entries have already said it better than I can; if there’s one consistent theme in your choice of words and images alike, it’s that trading is a means to an end, not an end in itself.
Your posts are proof that you’ve always known everything you need to know to bounce back. Good to see you back.
… Thanks Equalizer for coming out of the shadows to leave a kind thought. You should express yourself more and teach me something.
OE Trader Says:
Keep your chin up, brother. Good to see you back.
… Thanks OE. Keep posting too please.
Anthony Brown Says:
Glad to see you back!
I had some serious issues after going through the Christmas Day Tiger mauling at my zoo, I know a little bit of what you’re going through.
Take care!
… Thanks Anthony Brown. I don’t think I’ll switch places with you on that one. Take care!
szaman Says:
Gio-Good to see you back. I know how you feel, I lost my childhood best friend about ten years ago. He was caught in a crossfire.I still miss him.Pain will heal and he will come back in your dreams.
… thanks Szaman. Sorry to hear that you lost your friend. It’s strange not being able to see them, even though you think you will. How is it 10 years later? Hope its better than day 23.
ohanes Says:
Sorry for your loss Gio.
Your words woke me and helped me see that I need to put trading in perspective.
I’m missing out on my life, my spouse and my health and enjoyment of life due to my extreme trading behavior and excessive ways. Balance is coming, slowly but surely.
Thanks for the important reminders about what really matters.
Deepest condolences
… No ohanes, thank you. You get it. If anything, I hope that’s the one thing I can instill in all traders… never short your own life, invest in happiness.
ZMoose12 Says:
Check your DMs on Twitter, I sent you a lengthy message!
… thanks Zmoose. Sent you one back.
Dinosaur Trader Says:
Gio,
Thank you for this post. I’ve been sitting here trying to figure out what to say… I mean, I lost my best friend (suddenly as well) a decade ago and I’m sure that most everyone reading this has lost someone significant in their lives. But you hit on what I feel is the most important lesson of death, which is appreciating the life you lead now. That can easily get lost in lots of the other (mostly negative) emotions that accompany a sudden loss.
I’m sure you’re going to have some dark days ahead but if you keep focusing on that lesson you’ll be honoring your friend’s life through yours every day.
-DT
… thanks for sitting around DT. I know you’re a great trader. You know how to make trading fun, and your blog always makes me smile. Sorry for your loss, I would have never known you’ve seen a dark day. Thanks for sharing and encouraging. Much respect to you.
vcutrader Says:
Glad to see you back around, been wondering where u were on the PPT.
Take care man, will keep u in my prayers.
… Thanks VC. Take care too.
GonzoTrader Says:
Gio,
Don’t blame yourself…
He took a big risk, its was not you who sent him out on the rocks.
Take care, I wish you the best.
… thanks Gonzo. Take care yourself too.
Judge Smails 78 Says:
Gio,
Welcome back and my condolences on your loss. I have been there and know exactly what you are feeling. I echo what Dinosaur Trader and many others say above. And Please do not blame yourself. Not sure if you play any instruments but teaching myself guitar got me through those dark days when I was grieving and needed a new hobby to occupy my mind.
You and Mel’s family are in my thoughts. All the best my friend and everyone raise your glass for Mel.
Brian
…Thanks Brian. It’s funny you mentioned it, but lately I’ve been playing a lot of music lately. It is comforting. I’ve actually picked up teaching my nephew the ukulele, and Mel’s nephew the guitar. His hands are still too small. hehe.
Jeremy Says:
Sorry for your loss, Gio.
Glad to see you back http://ibankcoin.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
… thanks for not changing my password. Glad to “see” you too J.
JF Says:
I am in tears as I read your post.
I can completely relate to everything you are feeling and thinking right now.I, along with probably many others have lost a loved one, suddenly and tragically.
Thank you for sharing your humanity with us.
Your friend lives on, in every person that ever loved him.
… Thanks JF. He’s very alive in my in mind. Thanks for your kindness and humanity too.
ryan Says:
I will keep praying for you.
… good. Because I’m running out of words myself. Thanks Ryan.
fortune8 Says:
Time heals all wounds.
… thanks F8.
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
9 Comments
A Loss You Can Never RecoverApril 14, 2009 – 6:23 am
I almost forgot who am.I almost forgot what I do.I almost forgot what it feels to live, to feel.How do you prepare for tragedy?You can’t.How do you force yourself to feel better?You can’t.How do you find meaning in life?You can, it’s just not that simple because most of the time we’re all sleeping.
Then one day, life gives you a wake up call.
For me, it was a phone call.I remember it clearly.I was sick with a cold, about to take a hot shower after coming home from a dinner so I can catch up with the guys.I really wasn’t in the mood though.We planned a poker game that Thursday night because everyone had Friday off.We’re all so busy now, so these games give us a rare chance to catch up with everyone.My cellphone rings.It’s my best friend…
“Hey Gio, did you hear?”
“No.”
“We have one less player tonight.Mel is not coming.”..click.He hangs me up.
… what the heck was that?Mel was his brother, maybe he pissed him off. They always fight, and I always bring them together.Great, our game is ruined.Let me call this idiot back and talk some sense into him.I get another phone call, this time it’s my mother.“I’ve got bad news.Mel drowned.”I punch the mirror.Grab my keys and drive out.
I come home a day later.Everyone is calling me, telling me sorry. Sorry.Sorry.Sorry.Sorry.I tell them thanks, but in my head I’m thinking shut up, leave me alone.That wasn’t him.That couldn’t be him.No way that was him.I’ll see him next week… we’re going to go fishing on Saturday, then we’re going to play poker later at night.He’s going to go “all-in” just before I can see the rivercard, like he always does.And I don’t care, I’m going to call him, and this time he’s not going to get the flush.Not this time.
Just one more game, that’s all I ask.I wish I could play one more hand with him.He’s so alive in my head.The last time I saw him he was so full of life.There wasn’t one moment where we didn’t laugh together.When we talked, he would talk my ears off, and now its so strange because there aren’t any words left.Why did he have to be so generous?Why did he have to be the best fisherman I’ve ever known?The waves were 7 feet on the rocks.Unheard off.What the hell were you thinking Mel?Why’d you have to go?
I still blame myself.If I didn’t tell him I was coming over to his house with the guys, he wouldn’t have gone fishing by himself.Once he found out we were playing at his house I know he felt he had to go out and catch fish for us.He always does that.He always gives me a cooler full to pass out to everyone.He was a damn good fishermen.Why’d he have to be so good?We shouldn’t have planned to play that night.I was sick already, I should have cancelled.
I know it’s not my fault, but those thoughts haunt me almost every night.
You can probably count the days since I lost my friend.I haven’t done a post ever since.I took it really bad.Really really bad.I tell you, nothing mattered to me.I didn’t care about anything.I didn’t care about money, basketball, people, and especially myself.Everything just dropped.The world stopped spinning.I closed my trading books and just disappeared.I told my clients I need a break… if they needed financial advice I told them I was in no sane position to give them.Which was good since I wanted to short everything in the world in revenge. I haven’t even touched a keyboard for over 2 weeks.I didn’t blog, tweet, chat, I didn’t even get on the internet.I didn’t care.I told you, I took it bad.The only thing that really saved me was being there for Mel’s family.He has two kids, and a wife.My goodness, when she cries it just breaks me down.That must be the most painful thing that could ever happen to someone.To lose your spouse…If I feel like crap, it must stab her a thousand times more.I really don’t like to see people suffer.I really don’t.I still feel empty a little, sad, still have little desire and energy in me, and oddly enough that makes me feel good inside…This is for you Mel.See, I won’t feel good with you gone.That’s proof of how much I care for you buddy.I am cut.
I can’t keep punishing myself this way.If I could, I would give everything I have to go back in time and rearrange some of those events, change some things, make sure it never happened.But I can’t.Youth makes me feel invincible, losing a loved one makes me feel so vulnerable.The best thing for me to do is to keep busy.When it’s quiet, I feel sad.That pretty much sums up why I’ve suddenly disappeared from the world.Sorry, but, that’s how I am.I’ve lost some friends to death before, but never someone this close, this sudden, and this tragic.I still don’t know what to think.I just tell myself to man up and get back to trading, but it’s not easy.Believe me it’s not easy.I don’t even know what stocks I want to trade, and I kind of wonder which stock I’m going to buy first.AAPL?GOOG?You tell me, please.Wow, I haven’t typed four letters in all caps in a long time.Feels like forever since I traded.
Trading.What a simple yet complicated thing to do.Friends, don’t ever trade what’s important to you for something that cannot bring you happiness.I’ve come to learn that life is not worth living unless you share it with someone.How many chances do you get?You never know, you just never know when you say good bye to someone, if that’s the last time you’ll ever see them.Man it hurts just saying that.
…Let me ask you a question.Do you know who the best traders and investors are?They’re not the ones that pump out triple digit returns year after year.They’re the ones you never notice… they’re the ones usually with small returns, yet come home every night never forgetting what’s important to them.It’s the ones that never make that one trade they regret later when they realized it’s too late.They never trade their time that should be spent with their loved ones for the sake of material things.While walking through the valley of the shadow, I try to see some light.Coping with the loss of a loved one has taught me more so that money and possessions are not important.I always knew that, but now I understand that.You can break something and easily buy it back.You can make a bad trade, but as long as you’re breathing you can make it back.But once you lose someone in death, that’s it.All the money in the world is not going to bring him back.
Tomorrow, when you see your boss, thank him for letting you keep your job so you can put food on the table.When you see your friends, compliment them instead of competing with them just this once.When you see an enemy, forgive them.Then tonight, before you go to sleep, give your kids a hug, tell your wife or husband you love them even though you don’t deserve them.When you see yourself in the mirror, smile, laugh, and thank God for the little things in life.Promise me you’ll do that, the I’ll feel better.Don’t let the unexpected things in life be your alarm clock.Wake up.
Mel was a good man.He did all that, and for that I admire him.I hope the best of him lives on in me.Love yah buddy.I’ll see you again, I’ll bring the cards.
-gio-
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
58 Comments
Target to shortMarch 26, 2009 – 2:19 pm
There is no sense day-trading this market.Its way way way to choppy.The tape feels like its sucking in a lot of dumb money here.Notice the huge gap we filled.Its almost way too easy for the bulls.I have a conservative entry for multi-week swing shorts on the chart.
http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/wp-content/imagescaler/70c7c294bb1ce5aad152ab7a1f68d74a.png
…we’ll see.
I have family arriving from New York today, which usually means time for good food. Can’t wait!
Posted in Uncategorized by: Gio
53 Comments
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