十一月 05, 2008 - 07:34 上午Make Money Shorting? Yes We Can.
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Posted: 07:34 上午 | 64 insightful comments | Permalink
AFL (5)
三月 27, 2009 - 11:59 下午Sweet ShortJust going through charts late on a Friday night (sad, ain't it?) and this one looks fantastic.
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Posted: 11:59 下午 | 32 insightful comments | Permalink
六月 05, 2008 - 02:59 下午The Indefatigable ConsumerI'm starting to worry that this economy is mysteriously stronger - - either through truthful data or otherwise - - than we had suspected. In spite of a host of unprecedented challenges, including a collapsing housing market and exploding energy costs, the U.S. consumer still seems fully committed to keep using debt to buy stuff. And buying stuff is what makes this country tick. And for all that, it was an awful day for the bears, with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points.
The tidy gains made over the prior three days were wiped out in one session. What bothers me isn't they forsaken profits - - it's the wasted time. It takes a lot of time to analyze charts, do good analysis, execute trades, and set responsible stops. That time is well spent when it yields profits. But in a see-saw market when paper profits get nuked by a single strong day, the only gain to be had is exasperation.
One could, I suppose, avoid such frustration by piling into any of the momentum stocks that are trading, such as the one below. I just don't have the personality to do it, just like I didn't have the personality in 1999 to pile into Internet stocks. I'm too scared of when the music is going to stop playing. Shame on me for being that way, but it's just how I'm put together. The stock below, for all I know, could go up ten-fold from here. But a chart like this simply makes me nervous.
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Besides strong retail sales, another thing pushing up the market (particularly with oil and commodity issues) was the resumption of the dollar's fall and oil's rise. Crude oil futures pushed nearly 5% higher today alone.
Another disturbingly bullish sign is the $XBD. I had mentioned a few days ago the nascent series of higher highs and higher lows had been eliminated. I'm embarrassed to say this was incorrect due to a data error from our price feed. This error has been corrected, and as you can see, the setup for a reversal in this index is still very much intact.
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Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
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Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.
Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.
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Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
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An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.
An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.
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The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
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My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.
My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.
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The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.
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Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.
Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.
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AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
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ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
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CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
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Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.
Posted: 02:59 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 29, 2008 - 02:38 下午Oil Helps OutCrude oil, which is on the nation's mind like never before, softened up enough today do my puts some good. I am generally short most major items related to oil, gold, and agriculture. We had similar dips in crude oil in late March and late April, both of which were followed by pushes to new lifetime highs, so I am not saying the past few days are game-changing. But at some point this bull trend will be broken.
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I mentioned yesterday that I closed out my XAU puts. That was obviously early, and it's a shame that the huge bid/ask spread was the major reason for my wanting to close them out. Oh, well. I could see this easily heading to $160 and maybe even lower.
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My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
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Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.
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Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
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CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.
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I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
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Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.
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Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
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The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.
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I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).
I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).
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Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.
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I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
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CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.
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And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
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Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.
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While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!
Posted: 02:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 01, 2008 - 02:30 下午Nasty!I'm not going to sugarcoat it: today sucked for me! A nearly 400 point rally does not do good things for a bear's portfolio!
I wasn't laid waste or anything like that. I guess I got stopped out of about 1/5th of my positions, and the rest of them took on some pretty serious damage. But I've suffered through these gigantic rallies before, and - - at least so far this year - - my portfolio has pushed on to record highs each time the market shakes off the bullishness.
Looking at the IWM, you can see the gargantuan overhead resistance (tinted in blue) and the intermediate term downward trend (the red sloping line). A meaningful push above $73 on the IWM would be really, really bad.
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The Dow has a similar chunk of overhead resistance spanning some 1400 points, although we're only about a hundred points away from the underbelly of this level.
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I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
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My $NDX puts took serious damage today, as this market exploded nearly 5% higher. To my way of thinking, we are nearing both the underside of the broken trendline as well as the underside of the Fibonacci level, so I really expect some diminishment of bullishness soon.
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I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.