As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1883&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1883&state=present&height=600&width=600
OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1882&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1882&state=present&height=600&width=600
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1885&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1885&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1887&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1887&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1888&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1888&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1889&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1889&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1890&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1890&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1891&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1891&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1892&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1892&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1893&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1893&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1894&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1894&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1895&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1895&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1896&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1896&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1897&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1897&state=present&height=600&width=600
The only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of market we need in order to push lower - - - providing, literally, a slope of hope.
Posted: 03:31 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 29, 2008 - 03:33 下午August, Die She Must........Today was a welcome relief, but it still doesn't get us over the fact that this summer's frenetic up-and-down motion is agonizing for bulls and bears alike. Even if we had a single week of a consistent downturn, I'd nail all my financial goals for the year. As it is now, I have to play offense one day, defense the next, offense the next day, defense the next. Feh!
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1857&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1857&state=present&height=600&width=600
The $UTIL, which you all know I'm especially bearish on, is on the right track again. A break beneath 460 would spell doom for this index and usher in the 20% drop on which I am counting.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1858&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1858&state=present&height=600&width=600
I've got a medium-sized position on QQQQ puts; the $NDX is below its retracement line (barely) and below its fan line. Weakness in the $NDX would send it, I am supposing, about 150 points lower.
I've got a medium-sized position on QQQQ puts; the $NDX is below its retracement line (barely) and below its fan line. Weakness in the $NDX would send it, I am supposing, about 150 points lower.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1863&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1863&state=present&height=600&width=600
Every technician on the planet is eyeing 1265 on the S&P. I've tinted in the key area. I know I've said it ten times already, but I'll say it again: a break beneath this level will make the job of the bears really, really simple. Until then, we remain mired in this dread battle. September, "the month of the bear", will hopefully smile kindly on us.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1861&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1861&state=present&height=600&width=600
Oil and gold look nicely poised for a tumble; I'd bank on OIH to fall to 165.
Oil and gold look nicely poised for a tumble; I'd bank on OIH to fall to 165.
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1859&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1859&state=present&height=600&width=600
And this ten year chart of $XAU positions this instrument for about a 20 point fall in the near term.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1860&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1860&state=present&height=600&width=600
One specific gold short I'm fond of is AEM:
One specific gold short I'm fond of is AEM:
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1869&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1869&state=present&height=600&width=600
The recovery in financials is starting to peter out, I think. The rally following July 15 was gigantic, but the volume is shriveling up. I repurchased puts on BAC today, and both FNM and FRE had sharp percentage drops today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1870&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1870&state=present&height=600&width=600
What follows are a variety of charts, some of which you've seen, that I like a lot as short positions.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1865&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1865&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1866&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1866&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1867&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1867&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1868&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1868&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1871&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1871&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1872&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1872&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1873&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1873&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1875&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1875&state=present&height=600&width=600
Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1874&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1874&state=present&height=600&width=600
We'll close this week out with Art Garfunkel singing "April Come She Will", one of my favorites. This only reminds me that Art should be made a saint.
Posted: 03:33 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 25, 2008 - 01:59 下午Then I Woke UpIn this weekend's post, I wrote, "Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday."
Well, I was neither surprised nor disappointed. I got the "one-two punch" I was hoping for............a drop across the board in oil, gold, and equities. The notion that these are inversely correlated is, in my opinion, total nonsense, and I am positioned as such. Today's 241 point drop on the Dow was welcome, and the last three days of this week are packed with important economic reports.
Observant readers may notice that my have dropped from something like 95% to 77%. The reason for this is that we've changed how this is calculated. Last week, a reader pointed out what he felt was a mathematical flaw in the calculation; I agreed, and I asked an engineer to correct it. This has been corrected, but still, the figures shown are not bad! Please keep in mind my about this figure, no matter what it says.
Today I'm simply going to show you my favorite current positions. I've got a total of 109 - - yes, 109! - - positions, every single one of them bearish. But here are my jumping-up-and-down favorite ones.........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1799&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1799&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1800&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1800&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1802&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1802&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1803&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1803&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1804&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1804&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1805&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1805&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1806&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1806&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1807&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1807&state=present&height=600&width=600
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Original [*]Present
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1808&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1808&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1809&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1809&state=present&height=600&width=600
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