ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1028&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1028&state=present&height=600&width=600
CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1029&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1029&state=present&height=600&width=600
Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.
Posted: 02:59 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
五月 29, 2008 - 02:38 下午Oil Helps OutCrude oil, which is on the nation's mind like never before, softened up enough today do my puts some good. I am generally short most major items related to oil, gold, and agriculture. We had similar dips in crude oil in late March and late April, both of which were followed by pushes to new lifetime highs, so I am not saying the past few days are game-changing. But at some point this bull trend will be broken.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=916&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned yesterday that I closed out my XAU puts. That was obviously early, and it's a shame that the huge bid/ask spread was the major reason for my wanting to close them out. Oh, well. I could see this easily heading to $160 and maybe even lower.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=934&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=934&state=present&height=600&width=600
My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=933&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=933&state=present&height=600&width=600
Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=932&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=932&state=present&height=600&width=600
Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=917&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=917&state=present&height=600&width=600
CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=918&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=918&state=present&height=600&width=600
I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=920&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=920&state=present&height=600&width=600
Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=921&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=921&state=present&height=600&width=600
Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=922&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=922&state=present&height=600&width=600
The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=923&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=923&state=present&height=600&width=600
I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).
I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=924&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=924&state=present&height=600&width=600
Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=925&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=925&state=present&height=600&width=600
I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=926&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=926&state=present&height=600&width=600
CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=927&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=927&state=present&height=600&width=600
And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=928&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=928&state=present&height=600&width=600
Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=930&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=931&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=931&state=present&height=600&width=600
While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!
Posted: 02:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 01, 2008 - 02:30 下午Nasty!I'm not going to sugarcoat it: today sucked for me! A nearly 400 point rally does not do good things for a bear's portfolio!
I wasn't laid waste or anything like that. I guess I got stopped out of about 1/5th of my positions, and the rest of them took on some pretty serious damage. But I've suffered through these gigantic rallies before, and - - at least so far this year - - my portfolio has pushed on to record highs each time the market shakes off the bullishness.
Looking at the IWM, you can see the gargantuan overhead resistance (tinted in blue) and the intermediate term downward trend (the red sloping line). A meaningful push above $73 on the IWM would be really, really bad.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=394
The Dow has a similar chunk of overhead resistance spanning some 1400 points, although we're only about a hundred points away from the underbelly of this level.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=395
I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=396
My $NDX puts took serious damage today, as this market exploded nearly 5% higher. To my way of thinking, we are nearing both the underside of the broken trendline as well as the underside of the Fibonacci level, so I really expect some diminishment of bullishness soon.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=397
I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.
I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=398
I guess I'm a little bullish on gold right now. I picked up some calls on ABX and a couple of other stocks.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=399
I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close
I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=400
After such a crappy day, it's time for a belly laugh. Enjoy.
Posted: 02:30 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AGN (5)
十月 20, 2008 - 05:31 上午Some Favorite AggiesI'm long quite a few agricultural-related issues (in spite of the looming threat - - on which I'm banking at least a little bit - - of a crash this week). Here are a few favorites.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2379&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2379&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2380&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2380&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2381&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2381&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2382&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2382&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 05:31 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 14, 2008 - 06:16 上午Getting Ready for the Gold/Energy ShortSo, I wonder what cuteness the Feds are going to pull this weekend? Use taxpayer dollars to bail out Lehman? Send everyone a $2,000 check they can spend at WalMart? Cut interest rates to 0%? Make short-selling illegal? You just never know.
Everything is waiting to see what happens to LEH, of course. With only 365 cents left to its share price, there's not much left to fall.
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This last posting of the week is going to be somewhat different - - I'm not going to provide any opinion on the broad market. Instead, I'm going to offer a "theme" to invest. Specifically - - re-entering short positions on the energy/gold sector (I think of them as one sector these days, strange as that may sound). My narrative is pretty simple. I think the EUR/USD, which has been firming up, won't get much past the ~1.43 level, tinted below.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2011&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2011&state=present&height=600&width=600
Here's a closer look. As you can see, the retracement level is just about at 1.435.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2012&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2012&state=present&height=600&width=600
Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).
Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2013&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2013&state=present&height=600&width=600
And, finally, gold/silver (as I measure via the $XAU index) won't get past the mid-130s (thanks, by the way, to giggity for the PAAS suggestion since I expressed an interest in going long silver; it was up nearly 10% today).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2014&state=present&height=600&width=600
Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:
Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2015&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2015&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2016&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2016&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2017&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2017&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2018&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2018&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2019&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2019&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2020&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2020&state=present&height=600&width=600
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