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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2021&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2023&state=present&height=600&width=600
And I'll close this week out with a bizarre 4+ minutes with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld, which was just released this week. Actually, I think it's pretty funny. Adios!
Posted: 06:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 08, 2008 - 10:22 上午I Was Stupid to Go Long the Ags and EnergyI had said the macro trend was that ags were going to be the last bull market to collapse. I should have stuck with that. Instead, I paid too much heed to what I thought was a EUR/USD bottoming out and its potential effect. I lost some money trying to be bullish on ags and energy. Some of these have been battered a lot already, but I think there could be lots more to fall.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1960&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1962&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 10:22 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 02, 2008 - 03:31 下午Utter Rally FailureToday went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion "oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher, soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So, naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.
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The broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1879&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1879&state=present&height=600&width=600
The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1880&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1881&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1881&state=present&height=600&width=600
As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.
As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.
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OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.
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I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=original&height=600&width=600
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1884&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1889&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1890&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1891&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1897&state=present&height=600&width=600
The only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of market we need in order to push lower - - - providing, literally, a slope of hope.
Posted: 03:31 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 25, 2008 - 01:59 下午Then I Woke UpIn this weekend'sI wrote, "Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday."
Well, I was neither surprised nor disappointed. I got the "one-two punch" I was hoping for............a drop across the board in oil, gold, and equities. The notion that these are inversely correlated is, in my opinion, total nonsense, and I am positioned as such. Today's 241 point drop on the Dow was welcome, and the last three days of this week are packed with important economic reports.
Observant readers may notice that myhave dropped from something like 95% to 77%. The reason for this is that we've changed how this is calculated. Last week, a reader pointed out what he felt was a mathematical flaw in the calculation; I agreed, and I asked an engineer to correct it. This has been corrected, but still, the figures shown are not bad! Please keep in mind my about this figure, no matter what it says.
Today I'm simply going to show you my favorite current positions. I've got a total of 109 - - yes, 109! - - positions, every single one of them bearish. But here are my jumping-up-and-down favorite ones.........
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1817&state=present&height=600&width=600
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=1818&state=present&height=600&width=600
Posted: 01:59 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink