ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!
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I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.
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And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.
And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.
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For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.
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SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).
SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=868&state=present&height=600&width=600
And that's all I've got to say about that.
Posted: 04:46 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 28, 2008 - 03:30 下午Scared RUT-lessIf there was one chart that terrifies me, it is shown below. It shows what could be a very formidable inverted H&S pattern on the IWM which, if fulfilled, would be explosively powerful for the bulls.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=658
Conversely, if there was one chart right now that gave me comfort that the bullish nonsense of the past six weeks had, thank God, finally petered out, it would be the chart below.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=659
One thing I will note is that volume continues to whither away. Today's volume on the IWM was 90% less than it was last August 16th. The volume today is akin to what was seen on Christmas Eve.
One thing I will note is that volume continues to whither away. Today's volume on the IWM was 90% less than it was last August 16th. The volume today is akin to what was seen on Christmas Eve.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=660
Now, I know only enough about Elliott Wave to hurt myself, but I've made a stab at labeling the AMEX China Index, which looks ready to resume its sweep downward. Any of you EWT folks, let me know how I did.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=661
As for the $INDU, it was wiggling up and down all day long and wound up slightly down. I think most traders were falling asleep out of boredom
As for the $INDU, it was wiggling up and down all day long and wound up slightly down. I think most traders were falling asleep out of boredom.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=662
The Russell was relatively strong, and I have to admit, I am so concerned about the aforementioned pattern that I closed out my Russell puts at a loss. I simply don't want to tolerate that kind of risk of something happening like Wednesday rolling around and being up 400 points. What if a recession hasn't started? What if the Fed produces whatever love juice the bulls are craving? Wednesday is going to be gigantic.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=663
The S&P is a deliriously interesting pattern right now. Three different patterns at play here - - a descending trendline, a horizontal line, and a channel, all of which spell "short!" unless they are violated.
The S&P is a deliriously interesting pattern right now. Three different patterns at play here - - a descending trendline, a horizontal line, and a channel, all of which spell "short!" unless they are violated.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=664
The Transports were particularly strong, pushing up to its next Fib level.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=665
And gold, in which I have no position, looks like it could be headed for a much steeper fall soon.
And gold, in which I have no position, looks like it could be headed for a much steeper fall soon.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=666
Now a handful of stocks. There are a ton of stocks which have enjoyed multi-hundred (or thousand) percent gains. Anything to do with fertilizer or agriculture, it seems, has been blessed. Some of these are finally showing a bit of weakness, such as AGU.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=667
I don't know if I've had a trade on KLAC in the past decade, but I'm intrigued by this one. It has a nice, clean stop too
I don't know if I've had a trade on KLAC in the past decade, but I'm intrigued by this one. It has a nice, clean stop too.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=668
I've got a few put positions on investment banks, and this is probably my favorite of them.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=669
I confess to feeling pretty down lately. I've pulled some chips off the table out of fear. I will be more comfortable trading these markets once the one-two punch of Wednesday is past us.
Posted: 03:30 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
四月 17, 2008 - 11:48 上午The VerticalsThere are an abundance of momentum-driven stocks in the world of commodities. One day they'll cease their ascent, just like all stocks eventually do. Maybe it'll be today. Maybe it'll be in a year. I have no way to know for sure.
These are astonishing climbs. Those individuals who have been long these stocks over the past year or two have made huge percentage gains. For those (like me) who keep trying to tilt at these windmills..........good luck. It ain't easy.
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=535
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=536
http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=537
Posted: 11:48 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AGU (14)
五月 18, 2009 - 12:14 下午Some Favorite New Lottery Longs (1 of 2)
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Posted: 12:14 下午 | 41 insightful comments | Permalink
AHD (1)
十月 07, 2008 - 07:56 下午Con DescensionThe social fabric is starting to tear. It's shocking and sad to start to read about the suicides, murder/suicides, and other violence that's starting to take place prompted by the nationwide meltdown. I imagine it's going to get worse over the years. Indeed, I think the social rage is going to reach a point where one or more of the super-rich execs (Richard Fuld or someone like that) will get shot down or otherwise killed. I'm not suggesting or condoning it; I am simply speculating that things are going to get so out of hand, that's how bad it's going to get. If I were one of these folks that had made hundreds of millions, I would probably leave the country and never go back. They're going to be hated. The little "shame, shame!" sessions we've seen in Congress the past couple of days are just the beginning.
I've reached the point where I've stopped listening to the bottom-pickers, including myself. I went long the market yesterday in a big way. I made out very well on my index calls, which I got out of this morning. Those calls would be huge losers (obviously) if I had simply hung on. As profitable as it has been, I'm starting to kind of hate this market. I feel like I'm a person who wants to catch fish, and there just happen to be bombers overhead dropping explosives into the pond. I'm able to get the fish, but the way I'm doing so is causing huge, horrible damage, plus it's terrifying.
You've probably seen, as I have, how economic cycles inflate different asset classes, and the last one to inflate is commodities. That's certainly what has happened recently. Remember all the hoo-ha this summer over expensive oil, expensive wheat, expensive gold, and expensive everything else? The air has come out of that really fast. I think we're heading for $50-$55 crude oil within a matter of months, if not weeks.
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What about wheat? Can you say "head and shoulders"?
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The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.
The collapse that is taking place in equity prices is obviously shocking. For goodness sake, Ford is at 1986 prices, and there's almost nothing in the way of support between here and the bottom in 1982.
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General Motors is even worse; Richard Nixon was in office when prices were at these levels.
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Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.
Some charts almost defy belief. Just look at the collapse here once support was taken out.
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I have found technical analysis to be more helpful than ever during the collapse. Notice how BA is obediently staying beneath its broken channel.
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Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.
Some folks have asked about GOOG (down over 25 points today, and down nearly 60% from its high). It is at a major resistance level here. Break it, and down we go.
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IBM is likewise at a pretty major resistance point (a fan line).
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XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.
XRX is sort of like AIG in the respect that it penetrated a really obvious support level and has been sailing downward ever since.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2266&state=present&height=600&width=600
Speaking of (thin) support - check out $CZH. It is right at the lowest fan line. It's either bounce or break at this point.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2267&state=present&height=600&width=600
Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.
Looking at the DIA, here again we have strong support and very little beneath. The case for a bounce is strong. The case for a crash, if this is broken, is just as strong.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2268&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Here's a different view of the same market. A crash, I think, would take us to between 7,750 and 8,400, depending on what line provided support.
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Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.
Don't even get me started on the SDP ($UTIL) trade. Talk about money left on the table. It has fully realized its H&S potential.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2270&state=original&height=600&width=600
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Commodities look like they've entered a major bear market; I would short any major bounce here like nobody's business.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2271&state=present&height=600&width=600
The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.
The charts just keep coming! The NASDAQ Composite has the same story as the Dow 30. We're at support. There's nothing but air underneath. If we don't bounce (pretty much immediately), it's crash time.
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I'm very short OIH. I have ambitious target.
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The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.
The Russell looks like it has very strong support at the tinted area shown.
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http://slopeofhope.com/ImageProxy?imageid=2274&state=present&height=600&width=600
OK, that's enough .Off to bed. Tomorrow we either bounce big or head into a free-fall. I'm as nervous as ever, but comforted at least by the guidance the charts provide.
Posted: 07:56 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
九月 23, 2008 - 06:02 下午Buffett to a High GlossWell, I guess the big news after hours is that Warren Buffett is buying up $5 billion of Goldman Sachs stock. After-hours on the GLOBEX, equities markets are being pushed higher (not "crazy" higher, but the equivalent of "someone had good earnings" higher). It was a really good day, and my oil/energy/gold bearishness worked out decently. My day trades on index puts were where the real gravy was, though. I ended the day with only one index position - - a relatively modest block of $NDX puts. I also trimmed quite a few positions including, importantly, my SKF holdings.
What's amazing to me is how much the battered "near-death" stocks have been doing. I haven't traded them at all, but those who have been doing so nimbly DWARF any gains I've got going. These stocks have gained hundreds of percent in a matter of days!
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What's interesting to me is how uncertain so many folks are, including those who are usually drenched with certitude. Even Elliott Wave International (at last reading) was essentially saying "it could go up or down at this point!" I agree with Gary Savage that the potential gains to be had from a crash are outweighed by the potential losses from a steady surge higher, which is why I'm doing something I normally don't do - - - confine most index trades to intraday.