八月 15, 2008 - 07:16 上午King MidasA few days ago, I speculated that:
[*]Gold would rise short-term[*]Oil would rise short-term[*]An opportunity to re-enter puts on agricultures would present itself near the end of that brief runWell, I was right on all of these, but I never imagined it would be so short-lived! I thought we'd be in for, say, a week or so of the above. Instead it only took a couple of days.
This is one instance where my impatience worked for me. I took a big bullish position in ABX (for the gold play) at 32.50 and got out two days later at 35.50 (these were calls, so the percentage gain was very good). I also had a bunch of PXD with the same result. But, again, look how swiftly gold went up and then resumed its fall!
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It's not all wine and roses, though. My bullish play on $XDE didn't work out at all, since the dollar's strength only intensified (as I remarked in a prior post, I am a dollar bull, mainly because I think interest rates are about to shoot higher - - hence my bearish play on $UTIL).
The new opportunity to get puts on agricultural/energy momentum stocks definitely re-appeared, and here are a few favorites.
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I say again, I am really amazed at the dollar's strength. Maybe people can visit Europe again some day at reasonable prices!
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Posted: 07:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
八月 14, 2008 - 12:13 上午Let It All Hang OutIt's after midnight, so I'm just going to throw some charts at you. Everything is going according to plan so far. Oil: up. Gold: up. Equities: down. Let's see how long this bounce in gold and oil lasts before those markets join equities in the descent.
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Off to bed.....
Posted: 12:13 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
六月 17, 2008 - 03:16 下午Flat & HappyIt seems odd to be satisfied with a minuscule gain for the day, but considering how badly I was down earlier ("thanks" to my energy-oriented shorts), I'll happily take it. With the Dow down over 100 points, there was enough green among my positions to make up for all the red from my stinkin' energy shorts. You take what you can get.
The list of stocks-that-never-seem-to-go-down is dazzling - they include AGU, ANR, CF, CMP, CRK, GDP, HK, HP, MEE, MOS, PCX, POT, PXD, and SQM. I just don't have the stomach for momentum-based trading.
The China index sported a beautiful shooting star pattern after perfectly touching the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern (tinted below in green). I like it.
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The honeymoon with LEH and GS lasted just a few hours. It seems that investment banks, having delivered news-that-isn't-too-awful, are back on a downward track.
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For four days in a row, the Transports have been unable to get above Fibonacci resistance.
For four days in a row, the Transports have been unable to get above Fibonacci resistance.
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And the $NDX, on which I bought puts today, seems to be turning around smartly. I've got a stop at 2,000 on this one.
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As I've mentioned, I've been more than a little frustrated with energy issues. In spite of relative softness in crude, the OIH had a very strong day. I'm starting to trim energy positions out of disgust.
As I've mentioned, I've been more than a little frustrated with energy issues. In spite of relative softness in crude, the OIH had a very strong day. I'm starting to trim energy positions out of disgust.
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Someone mentioned I don't use moving averages; that's not true. I use them occasionally, such as the graph below. Look how nicely the S&P is staying beneath its 100 day moving average; notice also how sharply it turned around after piercing the 200 day moving average (but not closing above it) in mid-May.
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I bought some SRS for the first time a couple of days ago.
I bought some SRS for the first time a couple of days ago.
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Ah, yes, AGU, one of the aforementioned insane stocks. I own puts on this (unfortunately). This is one of those "ah, what the hell" trades, but I'm not optimistic. Buying puts on hyperbolic stocks is, errr, unwise.
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Many issues I have are near the top end of a descending wedge. DECK is a nice example.
Many issues I have are near the top end of a descending wedge. DECK is a nice example.
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DRYS touched its Fibonacci resistance perfectly today before softening up. I bought puts.
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The same can be said with GNK, which is an even more alluring pattern.
The same can be said with GNK, which is an even more alluring pattern.
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IBM is safely below its broken trendline, and I bought puts today, with a stop at $130.
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Lastly, VMI is at the top of a broadening formation. Obviously there's a lot more potential downside here than upside.
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Please note - once again! - that I am traveling for the next week (Wednesday through Tuesday), so my posts will be perhaps only once per day, and definitely late in the day. So you'll have to talk amongst yourselves. Good luck, to one and all.
Posted: 03:16 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
六月 16, 2008 - 02:14 下午Quiet DayFor those that are paying Prophet users, I'm doing a quick three-question survey on the site. If you're a Prophet user, please go ahead andsince I'm getting plans buttoned down for the next Prophet.
It was a pretty quiet day on the market. The Dow was down, but the other indexes were up, and there was really nothing on the economic or world scene to give the market any guidance. Tomorrow morning will be quite different, since there are three important economic reports hitting the wires before the market opens - Housing Starts, the PPI, and Industrial Production. (Toolbox users can see this on the new
Many of the indices, on an intraday basis, have head and shoulders pattern with retracements taking place over the course of the last couple of trading days. I've shown the S&P 500 a couple of times already. Here is the China Index, with a similar pattern:
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Lehman Brothers (LEH) announced their first quarterly loss ever as a public company this morning, and a relief rally took place among all the investment banks. I mentioned last week that I thought LEH was at a bottom, and it added as much as 30% to its price in just a couple of days. The Securities Broker/Deader index is right back to its Fibonacci level again.
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The same can be said of the Transports.
The same can be said of the Transports.
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The NASDAQ Composite is safely below its major resistance level, shown in purple below. I purchased a large QQQQ put position near today's highs based on my speculation that the retracement on the NASDAQ was just about done.
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The pattern on $MSH strengthens this belief. Obviously piercing the $620 level would eliminate this point of view.
The pattern on $MSH strengthens this belief. Obviously piercing the $620 level would eliminate this point of view.
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The volume today was unbelievably low. Just look at the QQQQ volume - - - this is at "holiday" levels.
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I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......