I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeupaoysI/AAAAAAAAAu8/qVql4mBEoQI/s400/0122-azo.jpg
Cigna is a much less volatile stock, but I see a double top here and a stairstep down these Fibonacci levels forthcoming.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeq5aoyrI/AAAAAAAAAu0/AzE_u2AG7-w/s400/0122-ci.jpg
Shoe god Nike is another security on which I own puts. It took a nice little stumble today, but I have much bigger ambitions on this one.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVem5aoyqI/AAAAAAAAAus/jrhtBumakxw/s400/0122-nke.jpg
I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.
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I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVejJaoypI/AAAAAAAAAuk/LH5c3WflZ7w/s400/0122-ntri.jpg
RAI is a good short in the world of metals.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVec5aoyoI/AAAAAAAAAuc/Ft62nTevE5M/s400/0122-rai.jpg
...as is RTI......
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeYJaoynI/AAAAAAAAAuU/M2bkYthojk8/s400/0122-rti.jpg
Sears Holding (SHLD) is another item I've avoided, only because it has the makings of such a sensational cup with handle pattern. But this pattern is starting to look shaky, so I'm OK putting some risk capital into some puts on this one.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeT5aoymI/AAAAAAAAAuM/rm91EIUH4s0/s400/0122-shld.jpg
Lastly, a bit from one of my favorite cartoons - Aqua Teen Hunger Force. This one is only a little offensive, so you are probably safe clicking the Play button, no matter how far away you live from the coasts of this great nation.
at 1/22/2007 12 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, axr, azo, ci, nke, ntri, rai, rti, shld
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Friday, January 19, 2007Week's End
There was an about the GAO's report to Congress about the looming financial catastrophe facing the U.S. This is getting much less attention than it deserves. You can read the original GAO the Federal Government to issue a report sub-titled "Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today" is surprisingly candid. And you know how adept the government is at tough choices (hint: it isn't).
Here's one graphic from the report, showing how the social security trust fund is going to dip into the red in just ten years. Just look at the deficits grow to $400 billion per year!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0PypIMTI/AAAAAAAAAts/UsqVslLpNYw/s400/0120-%24deficit.jpg
It's been a while since I mentioned any FOREX trades, but the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) looks pretty interesting as a short. I'd say if it trades anywhere north of 73 cents, I'm wrong. I've drawn a horizontal line suggesting what seems to be a strong resistance level.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0NCpIMSI/AAAAAAAAAtk/uUJOOcsgi7U/s400/0120-%24nzd.jpg
My OIH calls are doing well. All the press about crude oil's plunge in prices in a good contrarian indicator of a short-term bottom.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0IipIMRI/AAAAAAAAAtc/duKq329Q3IE/s400/0120-%24oih.jpg
I mentioned Abbott Labs (ABT) a while back as a promising bullish play. It seems to be going that direction. The strong volume only helps.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0EipIMQI/AAAAAAAAAtU/jAMdRN6eUkA/s400/0120-abt.jpg
Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.
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Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0BCpIMPI/AAAAAAAAAtM/iUPFVN5G1mk/s400/0120-cwtr.jpg
One new short idea is Martin Marietta (MLM). This appears to be a solid double top. This kind of pattern is nice since the risk is relatively low (e.g. the stop price would be $114).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbEz9SpIMOI/AAAAAAAAAtE/cSDZ_Wj47G8/s400/0120-mlm.jpg
at 1/19/2007 8 insightful comments
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Labels: abt, deficit, kiwi, mlm, new zealand, nzd/usd
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飞天棍僧
Wednesday, January 17, 2007When Great News Doesn't Help
After the market closed today, tech bellwether Apple, Inc. announced not just great earnings, but Oh My God blowout earnings. And how did the market react after hours?GLOBEX is down too. When stocks soften on amazingly great earnings, that's a good sign for us ursine types.
Some indexes pushed to lifetime highs intraday today, but ran out of steam. I do not see any sensational, obvious, the-world-is-coming-to-an-end type pattern. If the market falls, it's going to do so simply because there are no more Greater Fools. As for the S&P 500, shown below, it needs to break below 1,400 before things get interesting.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra61ASpIMMI/AAAAAAAAAsU/RSzdYz_a-rw/s400/0117-%24spx.jpg
The Russell 2000 seems to be consolidating right now. I am hoping the current consolidation is similar to the prior one, both of which are shown in light blue highlighting here.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra61ASpIMNI/AAAAAAAAAsc/khWdwnP5JFg/s400/0117-%24rut.jpg
And check out the Transports - aren't trendlines amazing? The prices did a perfect about-face.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra606CpIMLI/AAAAAAAAAsM/nN-B678PjqQ/s400/0117-%24tran.jpg
My AMLN short - so far, so good. It's down to $40 in after-hours trading. This is a sharp looking graph.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 08:22 编辑 ]
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My AMLN short - so far, so good. It's down to $40 in after-hours trading. This is a sharp looking graph.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra600CpIMKI/AAAAAAAAAsE/Eb5V8fipRb8/s400/0117-amln.jpg
Bear Stearns has had an ungodly amazing run. Again, this isn't a slam-dunk bearish pattern, but more of a "this is stretched to the max" situation. But some maxes can out-max themselves, as we painfully know.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra60vypIMJI/AAAAAAAAAr8/4B4rOX1cdYc/s400/0117-bsc.jpg
The same logic holds true for Goldman Sachs.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra60nCpIMII/AAAAAAAAAr0/UlgQF3wCU4A/s400/0117-gsa.jpg
I rarely mention Nvidia, but puts on this stock could benefit greatly from any general downturn in tech stocks, given its huge runup.
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I rarely mention Nvidia, but puts on this stock could benefit greatly from any general downturn in tech stocks, given its huge runup.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra60gipIMHI/AAAAAAAAArs/zk5TzEWr9eI/s400/0117-nvda.jpg
Lastly, a suggestion for a buy (or calls)......Oil Services (OIH). My view is that the drop in crude prices has had its run. Take a good look at how strong volume has been recently, in the midst of the stock consolidating in the upper 120s. Stop-loss price on this one would be $125.80, in my opinion.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra60YipIMGI/AAAAAAAAArk/KKt3_q3uGl4/s400/0117-oih.jpg
at 1/17/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, bsc, gs, nvda, oih
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Tuesday, January 16, 2007Earnings Season Begins
Earnings season is upon us again. So our chances of turning the corner downward appear briefly once more. Unless earnings are, on the whole, not up to expectations, Dow 13,000 seems all but inevitable.
Intel (INTC) is down after-hours, in spite of hitting expectations. And Rackable Systems (RACK) is getting completely clobbered:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2SACpIMFI/AAAAAAAAAqo/G3DpOAa3n20/s400/0116-rack.jpg
My colleague Michael Kahn wrote this morning, "The rally rumbles on and quite honestly we are out of new ways to say that this should not be happening." Well said. The NASDAQ Composite is above even the high water mark of its channel. This rally is based on the same sensibilities as late 1999/early 2000. Just insane.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2R7ypIMEI/AAAAAAAAAqg/uY2v3GicpMU/s400/0116-%24compq.jpg
The S&P 500 is much the same story.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2R3CpIMDI/AAAAAAAAAqY/RACp3GLnS-M/s400/0116-%24spx.jpg
Of particular concern is the Dow Transports. Just take a look at how swiftly it has managed to retrace back to the descending trendline. I have a feeling it could pierce above this, which would weaken the bearish argument further still.
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Of particular concern is the Dow Transports. Just take a look at how swiftly it has managed to retrace back to the descending trendline. I have a feeling it could pierce above this, which would weaken the bearish argument further still.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RzSpIMCI/AAAAAAAAAqQ/AYLKX0-S-xs/s400/0116-%24tran.jpg
Looking at more history of the $TRAN, you can see how prior breakouts preceded substantial moves upward.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RuSpIMBI/AAAAAAAAAqI/0-IouLHfHb0/s400/0116-%24tranbig.jpg
ANDE, mentioned in this space before, remains a good speculative bullish play. It all depends on the stock pushing above the neckline you see drawn here.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RpipIMAI/AAAAAAAAAqA/rnGWwYZhfng/s400/0116-ande.jpg
BP, which has been much in the news lately, looks like it is forming a tremendous top.
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BP, which has been much in the news lately, looks like it is forming a tremendous top.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RlypIL_I/AAAAAAAAAp4/xKnq2qBpNDU/s400/0116-bp.jpg
CCJ, although not in any crystal clear pattern, is a short I entered today. It seems to have a very good risk/reward profile.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RgypIL-I/AAAAAAAAApw/0cE8MI_sCB0/s400/0116-ccj.jpg
And Cigna (CI) may have formed an important double top. As always, you must use stop-loss orders!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra2RbSpIL9I/AAAAAAAAApo/7Gh9ZOHXVV0/s400/0116-ci.jpg
A short idea I haven't offered here before, I don't think - symbol GEF.
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