Monday, January 08, 2007Grease the Pig
The market tumbled about fifty points earlier today, but it recovered to close up twenty-five on the Dow. I think the bulls are trying to mount a comeback. We will see if the nascent lower highs/lower lows has any legs to it.
One market that intrigues me on the long side is oil (as a short-term play). I think the recent tumble has been fast, and the "common knowledge" that we're in a very warm winter has permeated the media so thoroughly that it strikes me as a contrary indicator. This minute bar graph suggests a possible consolidation, with a stop-loss price on the OIH of 128.94.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaL7Rhjz8bI/AAAAAAAAAiw/xMkniWc-N_Y/s400/0108-%24oih.jpg
The market, as measured by the Dow Jones Composite, seems to be in a trading range, and today we were near the bottom of it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, by and large, this was an upward-pointing weak.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaL7NBjz8aI/AAAAAAAAAio/CVqTGcqcjWc/s400/0108-%24comp.jpg
The Dow Jones 30 has a clearer "lower lows/lower highs" pattern going on, although it's not been that way for long. I've tried to use arrows and circles to simplify the pattern.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaL7IRjz8ZI/AAAAAAAAAig/6IpAf3ZLREM/s400/0108-%24indu.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 also suggest a medium-sized trend change.
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The NASDAQ 100 also suggest a medium-sized trend change.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLz6hjz8YI/AAAAAAAAAiY/wBSh8DS4Mac/s400/0108-%24ndx.jpg
One index I'm eyeing as a short - - although I might let it ride higher for a bit - - is the Russell 2000.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLzsBjz8XI/AAAAAAAAAiQ/kIcBnUe9s94/s400/0108-%24rut.jpg
The S&P 500, whose puts I sold early in the day for a nice profit, may have topped out recently. But - you know me! - the guy who predicted 17 of the last 3 bear markets! But even a bull would agree the past couple of weeks have been on the downslope.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLubBjz8WI/AAAAAAAAAiI/Gm2LTThQRdI/s400/0108-%24spx.jpg
Another indication that we may have a bit of an upsurge is that the $VIX is relatively high, based on the activity of the past couple of months. It has typically softened once it reaches these levels, and the market tends to swell higher during that softening
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Another indication that we may have a bit of an upsurge is that the $VIX is relatively high, based on the activity of the past couple of months. It has typically softened once it reaches these levels, and the market tends to swell higher during that softening.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLuNRjz8VI/AAAAAAAAAiA/mZAwDxVVjKo/s400/0108-%24vix.jpg
I've just got three stocks I wanted to point out tonight. Autozone (symbol AZO) looks like a potential double top. I bought puts on this today.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLuGRjz8UI/AAAAAAAAAh4/aPigAlf8G6o/s400/0108-azo.jpg
My fascination with Google (GOOG) goes unabated. A petite head and shoulders seems to be intact here.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLuCRjz8TI/AAAAAAAAAhw/NBHDqPRqTBI/s400/0108-goog.jpg
Finally, MDC, which I have been short a few days, is behaving nicely, moving away from its neckline.
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Finally, MDC, which I have been short a few days, is behaving nicely, moving away from its neckline.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RaLt9Bjz8SI/AAAAAAAAAho/Zgtl35tXp9s/s400/0108-mdc.jpg
I'll be traveling tomorrow, but hopefully I'll get time to post an update at the airport. Thanks for dropping by!
at 1/08/2007 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, azo, goog, mdc, oih
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1689787&noupdate=yes&3
少林绳镖
Friday, January 05, 2007A Good Start
Another macro trend (which had everyone in a panic early last summer) is the descent in crude oil prices. When crude was at about $80 per barrel, people were freaking out, and $100 per barrel seemed a foregone conclusion. My view of this market is very bearish. The break below the trendlines you see here is significant.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9PeBjz8PI/AAAAAAAAAgQ/m0FNEnqkL3o/s400/0105-%24crude.jpg
The NASDAQ exhibits something about trendlines that I've mentioned before, and which I always find fascinating. That is, the act of the trendline changing from support to resistance. Look how the market took its first fall last summer and spent most of 2006's second half climbing back up to kiss the underbelly of the trendline. Now the descent begins anew.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9NgRjz8DI/AAAAAAAAAew/vtLeEoF9Fs4/s400/0105-qqqq.jpg
And look how the RSI in the Dow 30 keeps slipping away. The first trading week of 2007 seems off to a great start.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9PRhjz8NI/AAAAAAAAAgA/KW2BwgJgiB0/s400/0105-%24indu.jpg
And the Transports have a good chance of cracking the enormously important trendline you see below the current price level.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 13:17 编辑 ]
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And the Transports have a good chance of cracking the enormously important trendline you see below the current price level.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9PMRjz8MI/AAAAAAAAAf4/LJPx2Muztas/s400/0105-%24tran.jpg
Lastly, the Dow Utilities got clobbered today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9PHhjz8LI/AAAAAAAAAfw/PBMEq0iLXcA/s400/0105-%24util.jpg
Now let's look at some short ideas. CBE:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9PAhjz8KI/AAAAAAAAAfo/4uPB2fssujM/s400/0105-cbe.jpg
CNX:
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CNX:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9O6Rjz8JI/AAAAAAAAAfg/Ckk6WLi553c/s400/0105-cnx.jpg
COF (mentioned often before):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9O1hjz8II/AAAAAAAAAfY/OO3vMkc2SwU/s400/0105-cof.jpg
CPT, a good real estate play:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9Ouhjz8HI/AAAAAAAAAfQ/CwvFGUCVOH0/s400/0105-cpt.jpg
ETR seems to have peaked out and slipped nicely today:
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ETR seems to have peaked out and slipped nicely today:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9Opxjz8GI/AAAAAAAAAfI/k1tpaH3mh5M/s400/0105-etr.jpg
GS:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9Okxjz8FI/AAAAAAAAAfA/OQPhjxuCEx4/s400/0105-gs.jpg
OIH may have bottomed out for now, in spite of my bearish view of crude oil. This may see an upward bounce next week.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9OcRjz8EI/AAAAAAAAAe4/nEZAqMqExHw/s400/0105-oih.jpg
RIMM worries me, as does Google. This is amazingly strong. Just look at the accompanying volume as well. If it busts above its lifetime high, marked here, I'm going to hang it up for now on this one.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ9M-hjz8CI/AAAAAAAAAeo/shm0ZzNi0Ik/s400/0105-rimm.jpg
If you've gotten this far, here's your reward......a mash-up of two of my favorite movies: Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer......and Full Metal Jacket. Those easily offended, don't even bother clicking the Play button.
at 1/05/2007 15 insightful comments
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Labels: cbe, cnx, cof, cpt, etr, gs, oih, qqqq, rimm
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Thursday, January 04, 2007Buy Buy!
ABT looks attractive as a buy. This market is really overpriced, I think, but this is still a handsome chart.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2M31mvO6I/AAAAAAAAAc0/_VUdReYcJUI/s400/0104-abtlong.jpg
HAL, on the other hand, is more symbolic of what's happening. Broken trendlines, weakening stocks, all masked by a strong megacap market
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MtVmvO1I/AAAAAAAAAcM/HZ6DXUDz14o/s400/0104-hal.jpg
I'm starting to lose faith in GOOG (and RIMM) as shorts. Today was a very strong day on both counts. I've marked by stop-loss price on GOOG here.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MtlmvO2I/AAAAAAAAAcU/RilYSZNDoPQ/s400/0104-goog.jpg
DST is sort of fascinating in how it shows trendlines "changing coats" from support to resistance. This kind of thing happens all the time.
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DST is sort of fascinating in how it shows trendlines "changing coats" from support to resistance. This kind of thing happens all the time.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2Mu1mvO3I/AAAAAAAAAcc/ewONqrtvFnY/s400/0104-dsttrendlines.jpg
BLUD, which I've mentioned many times before as a long, continues to be fantastic. Just look at this strength.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MvFmvO4I/AAAAAAAAAck/0UHxPiulUWY/s400/0104-bludlong.jpg
BAC, Bank of America, seems a possible attractive short as it seems to be changing direction here.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MvFmvO5I/AAAAAAAAAcs/EnyT1CcPbs8/s400/0104-bac.jpg
QID, the double-inverse NASDAQ ETF, is fascinating in the sense that volume is exploding and the price is finally turning around. Hopefully this is the shape of things to come.
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