Monday, February 12, 2007Four Hundred
Today is my 400th post (huzzah!) May God grant me the strength to see it through to post number 500. And smite anonymous phone callers.
The S&P was somewhat weak today, as was the market as a whole. This was a nice relief, since a springback from Friday's weakness would have heartened the bulls. However, we have to cut beneath 1417 to break the series of higher highs/higher lows. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to waste our lives waiting.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDZQW_y0yI/AAAAAAAABGk/7ZN0BcKFfxQ/s400/0212-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX is, understandably, pushing higher.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDZQm_y0zI/AAAAAAAABGs/tznHRjjqRtI/s400/0212-%24vix.jpg
I'm kind of "charted out" for now, so let me share just a few. At long last, some of the commercial realty stocks are falling. Here's sky-high AIV, for example.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9G_y0sI/AAAAAAAABF0/4RazHvT1hdo/s400/0212-aiv.jpg
Amlyn (AMLN) remains a favorite short.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9W_y0tI/AAAAAAAABF8/_eK4XvxSLMM/s400/0212-amln.jpg
I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.
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I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9W_y0uI/AAAAAAAABGE/AViAWKQN5uw/s400/0212-bp.jpg
CNX is also in a topping pattern with a very clear stop-loss price.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9m_y0vI/AAAAAAAABGM/UxK-VKX-iu0/s400/0212-cnx.jpg
And although I have no position in NutriSystem anymore (NTRI), I would be terrified being long this stock. It's in a huge no-man's-land right now, and there is very little in the way of support between its current price and........I won't even say how low.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY92_y0wI/AAAAAAAABGU/r1PieRKZcF4/s400/0212-ntri.jpg
On to post 401! See you tomorrow.
at 2/12/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: aiv, amln, bac cnx, ntri
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Friday, February 09, 2007Well Put
Good day on the market today, bears. This time, after a look at a couple of indexes, I'm going to show just stocks on which I think puts might be a lucrative position. They have a number of properties in common - - the stocks are high priced (meaning the options can get really juicy). They have options with decent volume. And they seem to be running out of steam.
The stock market finally - FINALLY! - made its mind up on direction today, and it was down. As you can clearly see from the horizontal line of support, the moment it pushed through, it was party time.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIW_y0oI/AAAAAAAABEc/zzFL_thCiRg/s400/0209-%24spxminute.jpg
Looking at the past several months, you can very clearly see that early in this bull phase the price action and RSI were lined up (green lines) and yet, for a couple of months or more, RSI and price action have been absolutely divergent (red lines).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIW_y0pI/AAAAAAAABEk/JNptkA2lbWA/s400/0209-%24spx.jpg
Going back to an even wider time range, you can see how lofty the S&P 500 is right now. Which is why my puts went up so fast today.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIm_y0qI/AAAAAAAABEs/DYLgA2BqSpw/s400/0209-%24spxlong.jpg
But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.
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But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIm_y0rI/AAAAAAAABE0/clbje4lnyRs/s400/0209-%24indusixty.jpg
The rest of today's entry is just stock charts, pure and simple - - again, with the focus being on puts. I've mentioned many of these before, and own puts on most or all of them. Goldman Sachs (GS):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0MqW_y0jI/AAAAAAAABD0/5MbsOVVc4Eo/s400/0209-gs.jpg
Cabot (COG):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mqm_y0kI/AAAAAAAABD8/16h-yt5Xrok/s400/0209-cog.jpg
Capital One (COF):
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http://pic.y321.com/picnew/pic/shlingfu/2007212161633_4.jpg
Capital One (COF):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mqm_y0lI/AAAAAAAABEE/r4qwrkP5uGs/s400/0209-cof.jpg
Bear Stearns (BSC):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mq2_y0mI/AAAAAAAABEM/JmuNU2ibTBc/s400/0209-bsc.jpg
AutoZone (AZO):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mq2_y0nI/AAAAAAAABEU/o8ALuWSMJF0/s400/0209-azo.jpg
Merrill Lynch (MER):
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 09:11 编辑 ]
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Merrill Lynch (MER):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mcm_y0eI/AAAAAAAABDM/oPMOBkOtJKY/s400/0209-mer.jpg
MicroStrategy (MSTR):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mcm_y0fI/AAAAAAAABDU/-uBHTo4as4A/s400/0209-mstr.jpg
Research in Motion (RIMM):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mc2_y0gI/AAAAAAAABDc/Urs-0eKfWnw/s400/0209-rimm.jpg
Textron (TXT):
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Textron (TXT):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mc2_y0hI/AAAAAAAABDk/sEMjEB9S7k4/s400/0209-txt.jpg
Exxon Mobil (XOM):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0MdG_y0iI/AAAAAAAABDs/lDReBtVbnbI/s400/0209-xom.jpg
Have a good weekend. To most of you, at least.
at 2/09/2007 7 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, azo, bsc, cof, cog, gs, mer, mstr, rimm, txt, xom
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Thursday, February 08, 2007Double Top
In honor of the late we will direct our attention to another artificially-inflated bubble without much intellect behind it which no one thinks will die so young: the U.S. stock market.
The $VIX is forming a pretty decent inverted head and shoulders pattern. I've drawn the neckline here. Clearly it would be beneficial for the bears for the $VIX to push its way above this neckline, thus completing the pattern.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7YG_y0bI/AAAAAAAABCA/FMKlCxgXWTs/s400/0208-%24vix.jpg
The S&P 500 remains beneath its broken trendline. The huge divergence between the price action and the indicator is quite intact, with today finally registering a small downturn in the market after several days of doing basically nothing.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7YW_y0cI/AAAAAAAABCI/j4GToBvj114/s400/0208-%24spx.jpg
Much the same can be said of the Dow 30.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7Ym_y0dI/AAAAAAAABCQ/3wCik3W7eH4/s400/0208-%24indu.jpg
John Deere (DE) is at the top of a sharping ascending channel.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7C2_y0WI/AAAAAAAABBY/qPi-EJ5EmUA/s400/0208-de.jpg
And Cummins (CMI), mentioned here recently, has put in a possible double top.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7DG_y0XI/AAAAAAAABBg/OCu_3y-nyfc/s400/0208-cmi.jpg
I put Boston Properties here (BXP) not to suggest it, but merely to marvel. It's incredible - simply incredible. Much came be same for any of the components of the Real Estate group (wasn't there supposed to be a deflating bubble? Guess that's just residential....)
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I put Boston Properties here (BXP) not to suggest it, but merely to marvel. It's incredible - simply incredible. Much came be same for any of the components of the Real Estate group (wasn't there supposed to be a deflating bubble? Guess that's just residential....)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7DW_y0YI/AAAAAAAABBo/zxvN1ZQQdVU/s400/0208-bxp.jpg
Bear Stearns (BSC) is finally losing a bit of its steam.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7Dm_y0ZI/AAAAAAAABBw/e8QBAJldDoI/s400/0208-bsc.jpg
Aetna is obeying its Fibonacci retracement very nicely.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu7Dm_y0aI/AAAAAAAABB4/n7ZzWiQ5RXY/s400/0208-aet.jpg
Reynolds Aluminum (RAI), also mentioned here recently, is dipping
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Reynolds Aluminum (RAI), also mentioned here recently, is dipping.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu6N2_y0RI/AAAAAAAABAw/XRtoc8g54hU/s400/0208-rai.jpg
MTW seems to be in a series of lower highs and lower lows - often the makings of a good short position.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu6OG_y0SI/AAAAAAAABA4/l2Ut7hhTUUw/s400/0208-mtw.jpg
MTH looks like it has fully retraced to the neckline of its head and shoulder pattern.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rcu6OG_y0TI/AAAAAAAABBA/odeMkO_QeTI/s400/0208-mth.jpg
And the same can be said of MDC.
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