The $SPX is pretty similar to the $INDU.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH5RBqWNaI/AAAAAAAABjo/CaU5bWLF4C0/s400/0309-%24spxintraday.jpg
I've got a couple of long suggestions. Here's Bowater (BOW):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH5RRqWNbI/AAAAAAAABjw/2kIqa1eNY1Y/s400/0309-longbow.jpg
And, and even better one, Pico Holdings (PICO), which has the advantage of a big volume surge recently.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH5RhqWNcI/AAAAAAAABj4/nim7Q91POVY/s400/0309-longpico.jpg
A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.
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A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH5RhqWNdI/AAAAAAAABkA/gyp4oV0TF6w/s400/0309-bbd.jpg
MS, like a lot of other investment banks, has likely retraced to an area where I think it doesn't have the strength to climb any higher.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH4-BqWNUI/AAAAAAAABi4/Dzjat8MclEU/s400/0309-ms.jpg
Microstrategy (MSTR) blew me out a couple of weeks ago, but it was a one-day fake out. This one looks weak.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH4-RqWNVI/AAAAAAAABjA/mRPvE4ny45c/s400/0309-mstr.jpg
Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.
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Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH4-hqWNWI/AAAAAAAABjI/4YdC9hfQSjw/s400/0309-qqqq.jpg
Reynolds (RAI) is retracing back to its broken dome pattern. I also have puts on another aluminum stock, symbol AL, but the chart isn't as pretty.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH4-hqWNXI/AAAAAAAABjQ/qOnAL1T8Po0/s400/0309-rai.jpg
Lastly, symbol RYAAY looks like a low risk/high reward short candidate.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfH4-xqWNYI/AAAAAAAABjY/ZtQz_8Td-DE/s400/0309-ryaay.jpg
My kids have given me some kind of bug, so I'm typing this with the chills. Even though it is 70 degrees outside, I'm going to go sit in front of the fire! Have a good weekend!
at 3/09/2007 30 insightful comments
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Labels: bbd, bow, msft, mstr, pico, qqqq, rai, ryaay
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Thursday, March 08, 2007This Blog is Carbon Neutral
The bullish push back up from last week's damage continues. At this point, I could go one of two ways. One way is to say that the recovery is over and that we're about to re-enter another bearish leg. Another way is to say there are still several hundred Dow points to go before we re-enter such a leg. Apparently tomorrow morning's economic reports are going to have a lot to do with this.
As for today, the Dow was firm most of the day, but just as with yesterday, it gave up some steam near the end.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCkNVSeueI/AAAAAAAABiY/W3jcjet-gHk/s400/0308-%24indudaily.jpg
The thing is, at this point, just about any chart could be subjected to completely valid bullish or bearish arguments. So just to keep everyone confused, I'm going to show you a few index charts and say one or two bullish and bearish things about each one. First, here's the Russell 2000 on a daily basis:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCkNlSeufI/AAAAAAAABig/vt6rVZOOjm0/s400/0308-%24rutdailycandle.jpg
Bullish Conclusions: There's free sailing until $795 before two simultaneous Fib retracements are reached. And there is a huge amount of room between the current price levels and the underside of that major trendline that was broken - - up to about $810.
Bearish Conclusions: The stock bounced perfectly off its 38.2% retracement today. It showed a lot of strength but couldn't keep it up. It's a nice shooting star pattern (albeit in the middle of a chart).
Now here is the same index on a minute bar basis:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCkNlSeugI/AAAAAAAABio/OVMYNw2Tm_g/s400/0308-%24rutminute.jpg
Bullish Conclusions: Largely the same as above. You can see the Fib lines more clearly.
Bearish Conclusions: The astonishing thing to me is how perfectly it obeyed the Fib. The 38.2% retracement level is at 786.78. The high today was 786.75. That's only 00.03 points! Absolutely amazing!
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Here is the S&P 500 on a minute bar basis:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCkN1SeuhI/AAAAAAAABiw/5i2jQadL9wg/s400/0308-%24spxminute.jpg
Bullish Conclusions: See that blue line just beneath the current prices? That's a pretty major supporting line. If we rally tomorrow, that line is going to hold strong as major support for a while.
Bearish Conclusions: This also bounced right off the 38.2% retracement.
And here is the same index with daily bars:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCj7lSeuYI/AAAAAAAABho/1g4Uwt7yQmA/s400/0308-%24spxdaily.jpg
Bullish Conclusions: This offers a better view of that huge trendline that used to be resistance but is now support.
Bearish Conclusions: That same line was penetrated, albeit just a little bit, and there is a huge empty space beneath the line representing how far this sucker could fall.
As for the $VIX, I feel pretty good about how much it has fallen. When it was about 20, I made a mental note that it should get down to about 13 to get the hot air out. It has done so. If today is another strong up today, this could lose a couple more points.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCj71SeuZI/AAAAAAAABhw/ukng-WOLXxU/s400/0308-%24vix.jpg
AMLN looks like it's close to breaking its huge topping pattern.
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AMLN looks like it's close to breaking its huge topping pattern.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCj8FSeuaI/AAAAAAAABh4/zyxusknAtZM/s400/0308-amln.jpg
Chicago Mercantile (CME) was up a bit today, so my puts suffered some, but I still love this chart. Satan himself continues to speak through this blog - note the eerie point change today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCj8lSeubI/AAAAAAAABiA/KKV947RK0HA/s400/0308-cme.jpg
And what can you say about a stock like Google which actually falls on such a strong up day. Something tells me the leadership days of this stock are a thing of the past.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RfCj8lSeucI/AAAAAAAABiI/M1AVQLGS2q0/s400/0308-goog.jpg
Tomorrow should be the most interesting day of the week. Let's hope it's interesting in a good way. See you then.
at 3/08/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, cme, goog
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I continue to be fascinating by the NZD/USD trade. I don't think I've ever seen a market bounce off Fib retracements this predictably. It is incredible! Continued weakness here can only be good for U.S. stock bears.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-pnNTJ-I/AAAAAAAABgg/bYKR3eBNJp4/s400/0307-%24nzd.jpg
The behavior of the Dow recently has been fascinating. (1) shows the point where the market was bottoming out and beginning to get the confidence to turn back up. At (2) it completes a beautiful saucer pattern, and it accelerates to (3). The market begins softening, which causes short-term worry, but then it regains its strength and zooms to (4). Now the bulls are starting to feel really good. But the drop from point (4) to point (5) is what this market is all about.......dashed hopes.......and, to me, is a strong sign that we may be headed for more marvelous weakness.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-p3NTJ_I/AAAAAAAABgo/JNNYlH8pZV8/s400/0307-%24indu.jpg
Here's a short term chart of my favorite index short, the Russell 2000. I don't know why the bid/ask spreads on this, a much more thinly traded option, are so much more reasonable than the gigantic S&P options, whose bid/ask is a complete rip-off. In any case, the horizontal line at 782 is my stop loss point.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-qHNTKAI/AAAAAAAABgw/G73GLJbY33A/s400/0307-%24rutshort.jpg
A longer term view of the same index reveals the many Fib retracements I've laid down.
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A longer term view of the same index reveals the many Fib retracements I've laid down.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-qHNTKBI/AAAAAAAABg4/_04YqaJCfI0/s400/0307-%24rutlong.jpg
Now for a few short picks. Bank of America (BAC) seems to have exhausted its recovery.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-qXNTKCI/AAAAAAAABhA/8dEj9Jk6nno/s400/0307-bac.jpg
Continental Airlines (CAL) is right at the cusp of a full blown breakdown.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-WXNTJ5I/AAAAAAAABf4/Ml1ssu0Jlqk/s400/0307-cal.jpg
I am madly in love with my CME puts right now. This stock looks so juicy you can just about cut it with a steak knife.
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I am madly in love with my CME puts right now. This stock looks so juicy you can just about cut it with a steak knife.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-WnNTJ6I/AAAAAAAABgA/AALVBaj6bOc/s400/0307-cme.jpg
I haven't touched Google (GOOG) in ages, but I picked up some puts today.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-W3NTJ7I/AAAAAAAABgI/amFtwHsy-Yc/s400/0307-goog.jpg
MWP looks like a good short play on a hyperbolic stock.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-XHNTJ8I/AAAAAAAABgQ/rfFGwoYgxDw/s400/0307-mwp.jpg
And Reynolds (RAI) is a very clear toppy pattern.
And Reynolds (RAI) is a very clear toppy pattern.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Re8-XHNTJ9I/AAAAAAAABgY/rosjoRggSrQ/s400/0307-rai.jpg
I read the big economic news isn't until Friday morning. In spite of that, both Thursday and Friday are bound to be fascinating! See you again soon.........
at 3/07/2007 21 insightful comments
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Labels: bac, cme, fibonacci, rai
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 16:27 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 16:28 编辑 ]
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Monday, March 05, 2007The Wow Starts Now
Those of you who took advantage of my New Zealand suggestion (made precisely at the top), send me some flowers or something! I mean, I nailed this thing totally on the head. Little did I know that this currency flux would be driving a worldwide plunge in equity markets.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rey0GJ9oJnI/AAAAAAAABfY/B0hlNsgufZM/s400/0305-%24nzd.jpg
Part of the freak-out today was from the continuing damage caused by feckless "flipper" real estate twits. Just take a look at sample financing company getting trashed.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rey0GJ9oJoI/AAAAAAAABfg/sqIU033ui48/s400/0305-ahm.jpg
My suggestion on BP continues to do well.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rey0GZ9oJpI/AAAAAAAABfo/KcKjxA_8vQ8/s400/0305-bp.jpg
And Carnival, purveyor to obese, bored "travelers", continues to fall as well, as I've mentioned it would many times.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 17:37 编辑 ]
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