HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoG_y0_I/AAAAAAAABJY/7s7bX0daFPg/s400/0215-hes.jpg
I've still got my IYR puts. They're under water, but just take a gander and how lofty this sucker is.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoG_y1AI/AAAAAAAABJg/8ejgI9h7wdc/s400/0215-iyr.jpg
My MTH short is still solid. I am once again showing a bigger graph so you can understand how far this thing could fall.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoW_y1BI/AAAAAAAABJo/s_3iGHwcZ9c/s400/0215-mth.jpg
OXY is another oil short worth examination.
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OXY is another oil short worth examination.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmom_y1CI/AAAAAAAABJw/jnf1NaCcNaw/s400/0215-oxy.jpg
PCU isn't as clear-cut, but it's at the top of a channel, and I'm going to nibble some puts on this one tomorrow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmom_y1DI/AAAAAAAABJ4/-uYOuKHUT_0/s400/0215-pcu.jpg
at 2/15/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, al, bbd, bhi, gs, hes, iyr, mth, nzd/usd, oxy, pcu
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Wednesday, February 14, 2007St. Valentine's Day Massacre
As proof not only of God, but a cruel God, I found myself driving behind the following license plate this morning:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGiW_y08I/AAAAAAAABI0/2LINVPOfj88/s400/0214-%24godow.jpg
That's right. Go Dow. Bring me the head of Ben Bernanke!
I am understandably in no mood to look at charts right now. But at least I can remind everyone that I have been very suspicious of the short-lived breakdown in prices. Doing this blog this long has taught me to put plenty of asterisks next to my ruminations, and as I've said repeatedly, a breakdown hasn't happened. And until it does, the bulls own this market. Every tiny dip in prices during this godawful rally has been just a few quick days of bearishness, only to be whisked away into the land of new highs......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGim_y09I/AAAAAAAABI8/_6twkBDqhjw/s400/0214-%24indu.jpg
The strength of the Transports only confirms this belief. This is a new lifetime high for the Transports, and even the most bearish bear has to admit that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hitting new, never-before-seen highs on the same day is outright bullish for U.S. stocks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGi2_y0-I/AAAAAAAABJE/MDHz-y-zlnI/s400/0214-%24tran.jpg
at 2/14/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Tuesday, February 13, 2007Crazy Train
Time for a shameless plug. My book is rolling off the press right now. You can click here to go to Amazon if you'd like to pre-order a copy. I paid my way through college writing computer books, but it's been a very long time since I've had the thrill of seeing something I've written in a book store. I hope people enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8l2_y05I/AAAAAAAABH8/a6SXQhn9mQU/s400/0213-%24book.jpg
I've drawn a channel representing the NASDAQ 100 (which, in spite of a really strong general market today, is relatively weak). As you can see, we remain very much at the high end of this channel.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8mG_y06I/AAAAAAAABIE/qogO_UQbGX0/s400/0213-%24ndx.jpg
I've pointed out the huge divergence between the major indexes and their RSI. This holds true for $OEX as well.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8mW_y07I/AAAAAAAABIM/C1_ob95iIs8/s400/0213-%24oexdivergence.jpg
Tomorrow is going to be really important. If we fall tomorrow, today may have been nothing more than a retracement. If we push higher, than we're probably looking at the umpteenth time that the bears have had a little hope injected into their system only to have it ripped away. Today's rise can be explained away. Any more rise could not - - we'd have to concede to the bulls yet again.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7v2_y00I/AAAAAAAABHU/lG_lZxBbLg0/s400/0213-%24spx.jpg
Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.
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Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wG_y01I/AAAAAAAABHc/YP6M4rnEOOE/s400/0213-cof.jpg
John Deere (DE) remains at the high end of its channel, and it actually fell a bit today, in spite of a very strong Dow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wG_y02I/AAAAAAAABHk/OIqfIPwuF1E/s400/0213-de.jpg
HealthNet (HNT) is approaching both its former high as well as the upper range of an upward-sloping trendline.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wW_y03I/AAAAAAAABHs/5AJJqb-ngYg/s400/0213-hnt.jpg
Interactive Data (IDC) has a rather toppy looking pattern and is worth a look.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wm_y04I/AAAAAAAABH0/x9S1cirCKCY/s400/0213-idc.jpg
Like I said, tomorrow is key. It was a very tough day for the bears today. Let's see if hope gets yanked away or is allowed to linger just a bit more.
at 2/13/2007 16 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $oex, $spx, cof, de, hnt, idc
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Monday, February 12, 2007Four Hundred
Today is my 400th post (huzzah!) May God grant me the strength to see it through to post number 500. And smite anonymous phone callers.
The S&P was somewhat weak today, as was the market as a whole. This was a nice relief, since a springback from Friday's weakness would have heartened the bulls. However, we have to cut beneath 1417 to break the series of higher highs/higher lows. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to waste our lives waiting.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDZQW_y0yI/AAAAAAAABGk/7ZN0BcKFfxQ/s400/0212-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX is, understandably, pushing higher.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDZQm_y0zI/AAAAAAAABGs/tznHRjjqRtI/s400/0212-%24vix.jpg
I'm kind of "charted out" for now, so let me share just a few. At long last, some of the commercial realty stocks are falling. Here's sky-high AIV, for example.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9G_y0sI/AAAAAAAABF0/4RazHvT1hdo/s400/0212-aiv.jpg
Amlyn (AMLN) remains a favorite short.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9W_y0tI/AAAAAAAABF8/_eK4XvxSLMM/s400/0212-amln.jpg
I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.
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I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9W_y0uI/AAAAAAAABGE/AViAWKQN5uw/s400/0212-bp.jpg
CNX is also in a topping pattern with a very clear stop-loss price.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY9m_y0vI/AAAAAAAABGM/UxK-VKX-iu0/s400/0212-cnx.jpg
And although I have no position in NutriSystem anymore (NTRI), I would be terrified being long this stock. It's in a huge no-man's-land right now, and there is very little in the way of support between its current price and........I won't even say how low.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdDY92_y0wI/AAAAAAAABGU/r1PieRKZcF4/s400/0212-ntri.jpg
On to post 401! See you tomorrow.
at 2/12/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: aiv, amln, bac cnx, ntri
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Friday, February 09, 2007Well Put
Good day on the market today, bears. This time, after a look at a couple of indexes, I'm going to show just stocks on which I think puts might be a lucrative position. They have a number of properties in common - - the stocks are high priced (meaning the options can get really juicy). They have options with decent volume. And they seem to be running out of steam.
The stock market finally - FINALLY! - made its mind up on direction today, and it was down. As you can clearly see from the horizontal line of support, the moment it pushed through, it was party time.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIW_y0oI/AAAAAAAABEc/zzFL_thCiRg/s400/0209-%24spxminute.jpg
Looking at the past several months, you can very clearly see that early in this bull phase the price action and RSI were lined up (green lines) and yet, for a couple of months or more, RSI and price action have been absolutely divergent (red lines).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIW_y0pI/AAAAAAAABEk/JNptkA2lbWA/s400/0209-%24spx.jpg
Going back to an even wider time range, you can see how lofty the S&P 500 is right now. Which is why my puts went up so fast today.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIm_y0qI/AAAAAAAABEs/DYLgA2BqSpw/s400/0209-%24spxlong.jpg
But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.
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But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0NIm_y0rI/AAAAAAAABE0/clbje4lnyRs/s400/0209-%24indusixty.jpg
The rest of today's entry is just stock charts, pure and simple - - again, with the focus being on puts. I've mentioned many of these before, and own puts on most or all of them. Goldman Sachs (GS):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0MqW_y0jI/AAAAAAAABD0/5MbsOVVc4Eo/s400/0209-gs.jpg
Cabot (COG):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mqm_y0kI/AAAAAAAABD8/16h-yt5Xrok/s400/0209-cog.jpg
Capital One (COF):
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http://pic.y321.com/picnew/pic/shlingfu/2007212161633_4.jpg
Capital One (COF):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mqm_y0lI/AAAAAAAABEE/r4qwrkP5uGs/s400/0209-cof.jpg
Bear Stearns (BSC):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mq2_y0mI/AAAAAAAABEM/JmuNU2ibTBc/s400/0209-bsc.jpg
AutoZone (AZO):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rc0Mq2_y0nI/AAAAAAAABEU/o8ALuWSMJF0/s400/0209-azo.jpg
Merrill Lynch (MER):
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 09:11 编辑 ]
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