Thursday, February 22, 2007Shave This....
Let's face it. The whole world's gone crazy. The Dow is pushing toward 13,000 just for the sake of going to 13,000. A third-rate Marilyn Monroe dies and creates a courtroom circus. And a rich, beautiful young woman loses her mind and decides to pattern her life after Colonel Kurtz...
A quick entry tonight. First, for you FOREX types, the NZD/USD seems to have pushed high enough to once again represent a low-risk short trade. I'd put a stop at .7070
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5k4KngtOI/AAAAAAAABQE/sSlRIjAA4LU/s400/0222-%24nzd.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 has been terribly strong - - reaching a six year high today in the face of a weak day on the Dow. It's tough to short in the face of such strength, but at least it's clear the $NDX is at the top of its rising channel.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kxqngtMI/AAAAAAAABP0/X0K19wuF8YA/s400/0222-%24ndx.jpg
ANDE, a long suggestion I've made many times, has all the right stuff.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krangtHI/AAAAAAAABPM/xNfxbkbmYGc/s400/0222-ande.jpg
Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.
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Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krqngtII/AAAAAAAABPU/Kg1x2fKkCdk/s400/0222-bsc.jpg
I've been hanging on to my CME puts for ages, and I was starting to get bored of them. Today the CME fell over 17 points, and it's potentially going to snap its trendline. Now it's getting interesting.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krqngtJI/AAAAAAAABPc/wyf82ozHW7E/s400/0222-cme.jpg
Research in Motion (RIMM), the stock that never seems to break, is high enough to keep the stop-loss level reasonable.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kr6ngtKI/AAAAAAAABPk/_NDpWBgM2Ig/s400/0222-rimm.jpg
Finally, Ryland (RYL), mentioned here as a short on multiple occasions, is accelerating its downward trek.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kr6ngtLI/AAAAAAAABPs/Gd6zAsTd3PU/s400/0222-ryl.jpg
at 2/22/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: ande, bsc, cme, rimm, ryl
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007Grinding the Gears
I appreciate everyone's patience while I got my entry done for the day. I went on a whirlwind adventure to Florida to speak (five times) at an investment conference.
Many people were asking me about my book. You can buy now, and I imagine it will be in your local bookstore within a few weeks. I see it's zoomed from #400,000 to #3,800 in just a couple of days. Harry Potter, look out!
I was really disappointed in the market on Tuesday (yesterday). It started with a quick drop, and then it punched and clawed its way back up to another lifetime high on the Dow.
The bulls are ungodly powerful right now. The reason is simple. This entire basis for people buying into this market is no different than the reason any six year old offers for doing anything..........."everyone else is doing it!" And that kind of sheeplike behavior has been creating graphs like that of the Dow Composite, which is straight up, grinding higher, and higher, and higher, annihilating us poor bears the entire way......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzwF6ngtGI/AAAAAAAABOY/qD_AbIYv7k4/s400/0221-%24comp.jpg
The Dow, which fell nearly 50 points today, continues to offer a flicker of hope for the ursine among us.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCKngtBI/AAAAAAAABNw/jhzu6-yIMrI/s400/0221-%24indu.jpg
The S&P 100 likewise shows a continued reduction in upward momentum as viewed via the RSI.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCangtCI/AAAAAAAABN4/ROVpym9uwwE/s400/0221-%24oex.jpg
Today I'd like to offer a mix of both short and long suggestions. As always, check them out more deeply for yourself. Let's start with the shorts. BP, mentioned here a couple of times, pushes closer and closer to breaking its huge head and shoulders pattern
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Today I'd like to offer a mix of both short and long suggestions. As always, check them out more deeply for yourself. Let's start with the shorts. BP, mentioned here a couple of times, pushes closer and closer to breaking its huge head and shoulders pattern.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCangtDI/AAAAAAAABOA/h6p2QqIM8rY/s400/0221-bp.jpg
Carnival, also a repeated mention, looks better too.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCqngtEI/AAAAAAAABOI/CzJVdrbMRCA/s400/0221-ccl.jpg
CNX is another short energy play, in spite of recent strength in the OIH.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCqngtFI/AAAAAAAABOQ/oj7k9AHDePs/s400/0221-cnx.jpg
EXC seems to have clearly broken its upward trendline.
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EXC seems to have clearly broken its upward trendline.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzujqngs8I/AAAAAAAABNI/Z9D_KOb6B-Q/s400/0221-exc.jpg
Now let's break tradition and pull up some bullish ideas. The balance of today's post is bullish suggestions. Starting with Genentech (DNA), where I've highlighted some similar patterns in the past and their subsequent upward breakouts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzuj6ngs9I/AAAAAAAABNQ/6MBNXXo_SA8/s400/0221-LONGdna.jpg
FedEx, moving on to new highs.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzuj6ngs-I/AAAAAAAABNY/Rd5K6MMCxV4/s400/0221-LONGfdx.jpg
HOLX also looks good, and has strong volume backing up its breakout.
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HOLX also looks good, and has strong volume backing up its breakout.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzukKngs_I/AAAAAAAABNg/Xkpu0o9q4-s/s400/0221-LONGholx.jpg
IPS is also good for aggressive bulls.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzukangtAI/AAAAAAAABNo/JKrGPzyK5hg/s400/0221-LONGips.jpg
The trouble I am having with conjuring up bullish ideas is that it's tough finding safe bullish patterns in a market this high. I could point out plenty of momentum plays, but I'm not really into taking advantage of the Greater Fool theory.
Good night, and I'll see you after the close Thursday.
at 2/21/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $comp, $compq, $indu, $oex, bac cnx, bp, ccl, csco, dna, exc, fdx, holx, ips
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Friday, February 16, 2007I'm Goin' to Disneyworld!
This was a strong week for the bulls - particularly Wednesday - the bears can only hold on to the sliver of hope that upward momentum is still waning. That's not a heck of a lot to hang your hat on, though.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-k2_y1RI/AAAAAAAABMU/CIyzSgVQY-0/s400/0216-%24oex.jpg
Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) is in a bit of a stuck pattern. Shorting this with a stop at $145 might be a good play (via going long puts).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Zm_y1KI/AAAAAAAABLc/9KAR1R8tI3Q/s400/0216-%24xau.jpg
Crude oil to me seems to be in a solid bearish pattern. If you believe this, there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of it (such as OIH, XOM, RIG......)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Z2_y1LI/AAAAAAAABLk/9QvCCYfH6Ao/s400/0216-crudeoil.jpg
I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.
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I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Z2_y1MI/AAAAAAAABLs/x7pvwS3pxWw/s400/0216-ande.jpg
My NVDA puts picked up a bit of steam today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-aG_y1NI/AAAAAAAABL0/sBwuciwVdQw/s400/0216-nvda.jpg
I've got to hand it to the SHLD bulls - this is a dynamite looking chart. Who would have ever thought Sears, of all things, would be a superstar?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-aG_y1OI/AAAAAAAABL8/gL5RozmwEMg/s400/0216-shld.jpg
I'm going to be in Orlando for a few days for my employer's mega-event. I'll be speaking a few times. Come up and say hello. Assassins - - aim for my head!
at 2/16/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, ande, new high, shld
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Thursday, February 15, 2007Seven Nation Army
I'm gonna fight 'em all
A seven nation army couldn't hold me back
They're gonna rip it off
Taking their time right behind my back
Another day, another lifetime high on the Dow. C'est la vie.
I mentioned BHI as a it got walloped. Even put options that are several months out doubled in value today. Oil in general (be it OIH or a component) is pretty attractive to my bearish eyes right now.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTnlm_y1JI/AAAAAAAABKo/gb19kDu63-I/s400/0215-%24bhi.jpg
I'm pretty proud of this graph, so click it to see a big version. It's a minute bar of the NZD/USD forex trade I've been suggesting. The symmetry between the phases I've shown here is really intriguing to me. I've numbered it for clarity. I've been trading it both up and down (long and short) during the most recent cycle. I imagine we're about ready to head back into a long tumble now. This is a really fun currency to trade, in spite of the wide pip spread.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndW_y1EI/AAAAAAAABKA/66MOpOA7jQ0/s400/0215-%24newzealand.jpg
The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index on which to own puts right now. Put values have been getting creamed lately by (a) rapidly rising index values and (b) withering volatility premiums. A one-two punch. Call me crazy, but I am loading up on them at these levels.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndW_y1FI/AAAAAAAABKI/iFD2r3CoAuA/s400/0215-%24rut.jpg
Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.
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Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndm_y1GI/AAAAAAAABKQ/ciEuKYr6T6o/s400/0215-al.jpg
BBD has a clean relationship with its Fib retracement.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndm_y1HI/AAAAAAAABKY/VbBBEdmAg2w/s400/0215-bbd.jpg
This is a bigger graph than I normally show - ten years - and it's of Goldman Sachs (GS). I still love this short.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTnd2_y1II/AAAAAAAABKg/v21ewJuR3jk/s400/0215-gs.jpg
HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:18 编辑 ]
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