Oh, and the Dow Transports breakout I mentioned last week as great news for the bulls now is rendered moot. The pattern has been shattered.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSeXnjIHI/AAAAAAAABUA/Necpz55l8AI/s400/0228-%24tran.jpg
Continental Airlines has broken its trendline. I've pointed out the target on this. I own puts on this (which I bought prior to the breakdown), and I have high hopes for this position.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSennjIII/AAAAAAAABUI/YPr0kC0K134/s400/0228-cal.jpg
One other stupidity on my part - I closed out my CME puts yesterday at a fantastic profit. But the profit became much more fantastic as the CME kept falling. These expensive stocks can make for fantastic puts, especially when volatility is low (as it was not long ago!)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSe3njIJI/AAAAAAAABUQ/hWh1NWWiHGY/s400/0228-cme.jpg
Lastly, Goldman Sachs - - whose puts I've been derided for owning - - is another winner. I'm hanging on to this, although I sold my MER just to trim my investment bank exposure. But you can see by the trendlines there's plenty of room left to fall.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSe3njIKI/AAAAAAAABUY/xwrc0YMTXDo/s400/0228-gs.jpg
I apologize again for the late post, but I hope I made up for it by the size of this one! Thanks again for all the congratulations and pats on the back. I'll let you know if any bullish Australians have left any cowardly voicemails for me.
at 2/28/2007 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $rut, $spx, $tran, $vix, cal, cme, crash, globex, goog, gs, qid, wipeout
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Monday, February 26, 2007Crossroads
Greetings from the snowbound tundra of the California Sierras. To me, the definition of civilization is anywhere with an Internet connection, so I'm still quite content.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyKngtbI/AAAAAAAABSk/CXjKPDJUgZs/s400/0227-%24sbux.jpg
Today was a good day, but I can't help but be concerned that we will have, yet again, another swing up. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I am saying that it seems to keep happening, and the most polite word I can think to describe this wave-like action is "annoying."
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyangtcI/AAAAAAAABSs/S6HYqSCLqAI/s400/0227-%24indu.jpg
What we need, of course, is a clear, obvious, idiotic-comments-suddenly-cease kind of break in the market. Until then, I have reduced my exposure somewhat with the worrisome anticipation that this stupid market might find its legs once again. The $NDX at least had a nice bearish engulfing pattern today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyangtdI/AAAAAAAABS0/em8I00Kemqo/s400/0227-%24ndx.jpg
The $OEX shows a wonderful example of just how monstrous the divergence is between the price action and the RSI. This market is running on fumes. But there are a lot of people who like sucking those fumes. The bulls always radically outnumber the bears. We are a lonely bunch, aren't we?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjangtVI/AAAAAAAABR0/Fe2SrDyvfFo/s400/0227-%24oex.jpg
The S&P 500 is just another example of this higher highs/higher lows market. In fact, to make matters worse, the lows don't seem to be dipping as low. There are some bright spots, of course. The investment banks are starting to weaken. Some issues (like the CME) are finally making some real progress downward. But others - like RIMM and MSTR - have surprised me with their incredible strength (obviously I got stopped out on these - I may be dumb, but I'm not an idiot).
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The S&P 500 is just another example of this higher highs/higher lows market. In fact, to make matters worse, the lows don't seem to be dipping as low. There are some bright spots, of course. The investment banks are starting to weaken. Some issues (like the CME) are finally making some real progress downward. But others - like RIMM and MSTR - have surprised me with their incredible strength (obviously I got stopped out on these - I may be dumb, but I'm not an idiot).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjangtWI/AAAAAAAABR8/ufluHISWNFk/s400/0227-%24spx.jpg
The Dow Transports, which I've pointed out should be providing comfort to the bulls, is at risk of breaking its inverted head and shoulders pattern. This could be nothing more than a pullback. But if it falls much more, the very clear bullish pattern will have been neutered.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtXI/AAAAAAAABSE/zwMNgYPuETM/s400/0227-%24tran.jpg
I mentioned Continental Air (CAL) before. The head and shoulders pattern on this is forming nicely. We could be seeking a neckline break in a day or two.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtYI/AAAAAAAABSM/PL9oalqTuvI/s400/0227-cal.jpg
And although CRDN as a whole isn't an exciting chart to me, I was blown away at the size of this bearish engulfing pattern. This is like the John Holmes of these patterns - I rarely see them this big.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtZI/AAAAAAAABSU/atFPoPgYl5g/s400/0227-crdn.jpg
Accept my good wishes that the higher highs/higher lows pattern be broken in the coming weeks. The bulls must be conquered, and breaking the pattern is the first step in breaking their spirit.
at 2/26/2007 15 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, $tran, cal, crdn
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Saturday, February 24, 2007I'm Starting to Like This Market
I am starting to like this market more and more. Several reasons:
[*]People are starting to wake up to what a train wreck the housing market and defaulted mortgages are going to be[*]We've got a new financial mania on our hands - insanely huge private equity buyouts - that provide a catalyst for financial catastrophe. Remember the failure of the Japanese to buy out UAL back in 1989? That alone caused the mini crash of 1989 - - and that is a puny deal compared to the absurd BSD type deals going on right now.[*]Upward momentum is rapidly waning[*]The charts I have been waiting impatiently to start falling are finally doing so - - the investment banks.....the financial service companies......the real estate con artists. They're all starting to crack
The Russell 2000 has been unkind, but I think we're over the worst of this. Here is a sixty day intraday graph; the head and shoulders target of 30 points to the upside has been plainly reached. Clear as a bell.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrcangtUI/AAAAAAAABRU/3lw7nGs111U/s400/0223-%24rut.jpg
The S&P 500 is now on the wrong side of the tracks (for the bulls). Look at the broken trendline, and observe how the momentum is leaking out.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrLangtPI/AAAAAAAABQs/DY6iFvOhmsM/s400/0223-%24spx.jpg
Cabot (COG) looks like a good short term bear play.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrLqngtQI/AAAAAAAABQ0/pGzPS_zFkZs/s400/0223-cog.jpg
Lehman (LEH) is representative of the investment banks, finally losing their luster.
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[*]http://pic.y321.com/picnew/pic/shlingfu/2007212161631_2.jpg
Lehman (LEH) is representative of the investment banks, finally losing their luster.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrL6ngtRI/AAAAAAAABQ8/XnKtsxnjWEM/s400/0223-leh.jpg
I don't have any particular on MWP, but this is a good example of hyperbolic mania.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrMKngtSI/AAAAAAAABRE/IkMz3nvckF4/s400/0223-mwp.jpg
Recent recommendation NVR had almost 40 points whacked off it yesterday.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrMKngtTI/AAAAAAAABRM/iV8SQvfNlyo/s400/0223-nvr.jpg
Maybe our filthy paws are starting to get a grip on this deluded market. I hope so.
at 2/24/2007 15 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, cog, leh, mwp
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:03 编辑 ]
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Thursday, February 22, 2007Shave This....
Let's face it. The whole world's gone crazy. The Dow is pushing toward 13,000 just for the sake of going to 13,000. A third-rate Marilyn Monroe dies and creates a courtroom circus. And a rich, beautiful young woman loses her mind and decides to pattern her life after Colonel Kurtz...
A quick entry tonight. First, for you FOREX types, the NZD/USD seems to have pushed high enough to once again represent a low-risk short trade. I'd put a stop at .7070
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5k4KngtOI/AAAAAAAABQE/sSlRIjAA4LU/s400/0222-%24nzd.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 has been terribly strong - - reaching a six year high today in the face of a weak day on the Dow. It's tough to short in the face of such strength, but at least it's clear the $NDX is at the top of its rising channel.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kxqngtMI/AAAAAAAABP0/X0K19wuF8YA/s400/0222-%24ndx.jpg
ANDE, a long suggestion I've made many times, has all the right stuff.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krangtHI/AAAAAAAABPM/xNfxbkbmYGc/s400/0222-ande.jpg
Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.
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Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krqngtII/AAAAAAAABPU/Kg1x2fKkCdk/s400/0222-bsc.jpg
I've been hanging on to my CME puts for ages, and I was starting to get bored of them. Today the CME fell over 17 points, and it's potentially going to snap its trendline. Now it's getting interesting.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5krqngtJI/AAAAAAAABPc/wyf82ozHW7E/s400/0222-cme.jpg
Research in Motion (RIMM), the stock that never seems to break, is high enough to keep the stop-loss level reasonable.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kr6ngtKI/AAAAAAAABPk/_NDpWBgM2Ig/s400/0222-rimm.jpg
Finally, Ryland (RYL), mentioned here as a short on multiple occasions, is accelerating its downward trek.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rd5kr6ngtLI/AAAAAAAABPs/Gd6zAsTd3PU/s400/0222-ryl.jpg
at 2/22/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: ande, bsc, cme, rimm, ryl
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007Grinding the Gears
I appreciate everyone's patience while I got my entry done for the day. I went on a whirlwind adventure to Florida to speak (five times) at an investment conference.
Many people were asking me about my book. You can buy now, and I imagine it will be in your local bookstore within a few weeks. I see it's zoomed from #400,000 to #3,800 in just a couple of days. Harry Potter, look out!
I was really disappointed in the market on Tuesday (yesterday). It started with a quick drop, and then it punched and clawed its way back up to another lifetime high on the Dow.
The bulls are ungodly powerful right now. The reason is simple. This entire basis for people buying into this market is no different than the reason any six year old offers for doing anything..........."everyone else is doing it!" And that kind of sheeplike behavior has been creating graphs like that of the Dow Composite, which is straight up, grinding higher, and higher, and higher, annihilating us poor bears the entire way......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzwF6ngtGI/AAAAAAAABOY/qD_AbIYv7k4/s400/0221-%24comp.jpg
The Dow, which fell nearly 50 points today, continues to offer a flicker of hope for the ursine among us.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCKngtBI/AAAAAAAABNw/jhzu6-yIMrI/s400/0221-%24indu.jpg
The S&P 100 likewise shows a continued reduction in upward momentum as viewed via the RSI.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCangtCI/AAAAAAAABN4/ROVpym9uwwE/s400/0221-%24oex.jpg
Today I'd like to offer a mix of both short and long suggestions. As always, check them out more deeply for yourself. Let's start with the shorts. BP, mentioned here a couple of times, pushes closer and closer to breaking its huge head and shoulders pattern
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Today I'd like to offer a mix of both short and long suggestions. As always, check them out more deeply for yourself. Let's start with the shorts. BP, mentioned here a couple of times, pushes closer and closer to breaking its huge head and shoulders pattern.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCangtDI/AAAAAAAABOA/h6p2QqIM8rY/s400/0221-bp.jpg
Carnival, also a repeated mention, looks better too.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCqngtEI/AAAAAAAABOI/CzJVdrbMRCA/s400/0221-ccl.jpg
CNX is another short energy play, in spite of recent strength in the OIH.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzvCqngtFI/AAAAAAAABOQ/oj7k9AHDePs/s400/0221-cnx.jpg
EXC seems to have clearly broken its upward trendline.
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EXC seems to have clearly broken its upward trendline.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzujqngs8I/AAAAAAAABNI/Z9D_KOb6B-Q/s400/0221-exc.jpg
Now let's break tradition and pull up some bullish ideas. The balance of today's post is bullish suggestions. Starting with Genentech (DNA), where I've highlighted some similar patterns in the past and their subsequent upward breakouts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzuj6ngs9I/AAAAAAAABNQ/6MBNXXo_SA8/s400/0221-LONGdna.jpg
FedEx, moving on to new highs.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rdzuj6ngs-I/AAAAAAAABNY/Rd5K6MMCxV4/s400/0221-LONGfdx.jpg
HOLX also looks good, and has strong volume backing up its breakout.
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