The $VIX pulling back to the horizontal line shown would make things more tempting. My God, the bid/ask spread on S&P options today was wider than Al Gore's waistline. (I think the man has decided to consume - live - anyone not living green. Notwithstanding his $30,000/year house bill on electricity and gas).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXY3njIZI/AAAAAAAABXY/YHVO7k-QYEg/s400/0229-%24vix.jpg
I'm going to break form and offer a few bullish ideas. Now, don't get me wrong. I don't actually buy any of this crap. I just get sick of being called a permabear. So I grit my teeth and throw some buys out now and then. Here's ABT:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXY3njIaI/AAAAAAAABXg/AuJombFtd38/s400/0229-abt.jpg
LEH pulled back beautifully to its fib fan:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXZHnjIbI/AAAAAAAABXo/LJ8-h2ddUMQ/s400/0229-leh.jpg
And SHLD, which I've mentioned repeatedly, remains a handsome graph:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXZHnjIcI/AAAAAAAABXw/kEmTC7Rv944/s400/0229-shld.jpg
I received many, many emails over the past 24 hours thanking me (some just in general, others with multi-hundred percent gains from my ideas). One kind gent even sent me a video. I share it with you now. Here, my friends, is how the bulls are coping with the market. (Although the bull is disguised as a giraffe here):
at 2/28/2007 17 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, abby joseph cohen, abt, leh, shld
111111111111111111111
I think few stocks better represent the broken promises of this fraudulent bull market that Google. What a snoozer this thing has become! Just look how it's been doing a whole lot of nothing since November. This is a relatively blue chip high tech stock, but you can just hear the air coming out of the tires.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUjXnjIXI/AAAAAAAABWA/niZEV21_H_E/s400/0228-%24goog.jpg
If you look at the NASDAQ over the long term, you can see we might have a loooong way to go before we reach bottom.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUG3njIQI/AAAAAAAABVI/5f77cCkqBs0/s400/0228-%24compqlongterm.jpg
Looking at the same index with a shorter time horizon, we plainly bounced off the upper resistance line.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUHHnjIRI/AAAAAAAABVQ/1wxKE4qZodM/s400/0228-%24compq.jpg
The Dow Industrials were just crazy yesterday. I was - - and this is further proof of just not God, but a Cruel God - - trapped in my car virtually all of yesterday, taking dangerous glances at my Treo. The market was down 200 or so for the longest time, then it was suddenly down 500. I honestly thought the president had been killed or something. But it was just this orgy of sell orders all at once, I suppose.
1111111111111111111
The Dow Industrials were just crazy yesterday. I was - - and this is further proof of just not God, but a Cruel God - - trapped in my car virtually all of yesterday, taking dangerous glances at my Treo. The market was down 200 or so for the longest time, then it was suddenly down 500. I honestly thought the president had been killed or something. But it was just this orgy of sell orders all at once, I suppose.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUHHnjISI/AAAAAAAABVY/Za1xgJnTRqs/s400/0228-%24induintraday.jpg
Looking at the long term industrials, one could easily argue that yesterday was an anomaly. There aren't any major trendlines broken here. Just some very shaken bulls.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUHXnjITI/AAAAAAAABVg/Wfgci1I5V8M/s400/0228-%24indulongterm.jpg
The Russell 2000, which I've mentioned quite a bit as a good index to buy puts on, took a better tumble than most yesterday.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWUHnnjIUI/AAAAAAAABVo/Bs_pV1Cv0NQ/s400/0228-%24rutintraday.jpg
And just look at the QID (and its volume!) It's pretty clear there is a growing interest in this double-inverse funds!
11111111111111111
And just look at the QID (and its volume!) It's pretty clear there is a growing interest in this double-inverse funds!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWTYHnjILI/AAAAAAAABUg/v7nouWOWTAk/s400/0228-%24qid.jpg
Looking at the $SPX, you can see a brief pause about half an hour into the trading day. This is the point where I - shame on me, shame on me - did an "ad hoc" close (which I had forbade myself from doing). Pure idiocy.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWTYXnjIMI/AAAAAAAABUo/AH-mchwYhg8/s400/0228-%24spxintraday.jpg
But here is perhaps the most interesting chart I have for you today - the SPX on a daily basis. Take a good long look at those trendlines that made up the channel, above which the index had broken out. And to which point did the index fall yesterday? That's right - almost precisely at the same trendline! If any bulls are ready this, you can take that as an encouraging sign.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWTYnnjINI/AAAAAAAABUw/9Brxn8-twno/s400/0228-%24spxstop.jpg
The volatility index went stark raving mad. This almost certainly cannot sustain itself.
111111111111
The volatility index went stark raving mad. This almost certainly cannot sustain itself.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWTY3njIOI/AAAAAAAABU4/OxGNWlKqRJk/s400/0228-%24vix.jpg
A close look at the $VIX shows the amazing breakout. This borders on unbelievable.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWTZHnjIPI/AAAAAAAABVA/JG_kNoXeu0U/s400/0228-%24vixintraday.jpg
I had no position on the $XAU, but I wish I had puts on this bad boy. The plunge in China had a profound effect on metal prices.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSeHnjIGI/AAAAAAAABT4/t5TiWjTBPJ4/s400/0228-%24xau.jpg
Oh, and the Dow Transports breakout I mentioned last week as great news for the bulls now is rendered moot. The pattern has been shattered.
1111111111111
Oh, and the Dow Transports breakout I mentioned last week as great news for the bulls now is rendered moot. The pattern has been shattered.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSeXnjIHI/AAAAAAAABUA/Necpz55l8AI/s400/0228-%24tran.jpg
Continental Airlines has broken its trendline. I've pointed out the target on this. I own puts on this (which I bought prior to the breakdown), and I have high hopes for this position.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSennjIII/AAAAAAAABUI/YPr0kC0K134/s400/0228-cal.jpg
One other stupidity on my part - I closed out my CME puts yesterday at a fantastic profit. But the profit became much more fantastic as the CME kept falling. These expensive stocks can make for fantastic puts, especially when volatility is low (as it was not long ago!)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSe3njIJI/AAAAAAAABUQ/hWh1NWWiHGY/s400/0228-cme.jpg
Lastly, Goldman Sachs - - whose puts I've been derided for owning - - is another winner. I'm hanging on to this, although I sold my MER just to trim my investment bank exposure. But you can see by the trendlines there's plenty of room left to fall.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReWSe3njIKI/AAAAAAAABUY/xwrc0YMTXDo/s400/0228-gs.jpg
I apologize again for the late post, but I hope I made up for it by the size of this one! Thanks again for all the congratulations and pats on the back. I'll let you know if any bullish Australians have left any cowardly voicemails for me.
at 2/28/2007 13 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: $compq, $rut, $spx, $tran, $vix, cal, cme, crash, globex, goog, gs, qid, wipeout
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
11111111111111111111
Monday, February 26, 2007Crossroads
Greetings from the snowbound tundra of the California Sierras. To me, the definition of civilization is anywhere with an Internet connection, so I'm still quite content.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyKngtbI/AAAAAAAABSk/CXjKPDJUgZs/s400/0227-%24sbux.jpg
Today was a good day, but I can't help but be concerned that we will have, yet again, another swing up. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I am saying that it seems to keep happening, and the most polite word I can think to describe this wave-like action is "annoying."
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyangtcI/AAAAAAAABSs/S6HYqSCLqAI/s400/0227-%24indu.jpg
What we need, of course, is a clear, obvious, idiotic-comments-suddenly-cease kind of break in the market. Until then, I have reduced my exposure somewhat with the worrisome anticipation that this stupid market might find its legs once again. The $NDX at least had a nice bearish engulfing pattern today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAyangtdI/AAAAAAAABS0/em8I00Kemqo/s400/0227-%24ndx.jpg
The $OEX shows a wonderful example of just how monstrous the divergence is between the price action and the RSI. This market is running on fumes. But there are a lot of people who like sucking those fumes. The bulls always radically outnumber the bears. We are a lonely bunch, aren't we?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjangtVI/AAAAAAAABR0/Fe2SrDyvfFo/s400/0227-%24oex.jpg
The S&P 500 is just another example of this higher highs/higher lows market. In fact, to make matters worse, the lows don't seem to be dipping as low. There are some bright spots, of course. The investment banks are starting to weaken. Some issues (like the CME) are finally making some real progress downward. But others - like RIMM and MSTR - have surprised me with their incredible strength (obviously I got stopped out on these - I may be dumb, but I'm not an idiot).
1111111111111111111111111
The S&P 500 is just another example of this higher highs/higher lows market. In fact, to make matters worse, the lows don't seem to be dipping as low. There are some bright spots, of course. The investment banks are starting to weaken. Some issues (like the CME) are finally making some real progress downward. But others - like RIMM and MSTR - have surprised me with their incredible strength (obviously I got stopped out on these - I may be dumb, but I'm not an idiot).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjangtWI/AAAAAAAABR8/ufluHISWNFk/s400/0227-%24spx.jpg
The Dow Transports, which I've pointed out should be providing comfort to the bulls, is at risk of breaking its inverted head and shoulders pattern. This could be nothing more than a pullback. But if it falls much more, the very clear bullish pattern will have been neutered.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtXI/AAAAAAAABSE/zwMNgYPuETM/s400/0227-%24tran.jpg
I mentioned Continental Air (CAL) before. The head and shoulders pattern on this is forming nicely. We could be seeking a neckline break in a day or two.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtYI/AAAAAAAABSM/PL9oalqTuvI/s400/0227-cal.jpg
And although CRDN as a whole isn't an exciting chart to me, I was blown away at the size of this bearish engulfing pattern. This is like the John Holmes of these patterns - I rarely see them this big.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReOAjqngtZI/AAAAAAAABSU/atFPoPgYl5g/s400/0227-crdn.jpg
Accept my good wishes that the higher highs/higher lows pattern be broken in the coming weeks. The bulls must be conquered, and breaking the pattern is the first step in breaking their spirit.
at 2/26/2007 15 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: $indu, $spx, $tran, cal, crdn
1111111111111111
Saturday, February 24, 2007I'm Starting to Like This Market
I am starting to like this market more and more. Several reasons:
[*]People are starting to wake up to what a train wreck the housing market and defaulted mortgages are going to be[*]We've got a new financial mania on our hands - insanely huge private equity buyouts - that provide a catalyst for financial catastrophe. Remember the failure of the Japanese to buy out UAL back in 1989? That alone caused the mini crash of 1989 - - and that is a puny deal compared to the absurd BSD type deals going on right now.[*]Upward momentum is rapidly waning[*]The charts I have been waiting impatiently to start falling are finally doing so - - the investment banks.....the financial service companies......the real estate con artists. They're all starting to crack
The Russell 2000 has been unkind, but I think we're over the worst of this. Here is a sixty day intraday graph; the head and shoulders target of 30 points to the upside has been plainly reached. Clear as a bell.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrcangtUI/AAAAAAAABRU/3lw7nGs111U/s400/0223-%24rut.jpg
The S&P 500 is now on the wrong side of the tracks (for the bulls). Look at the broken trendline, and observe how the momentum is leaking out.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrLangtPI/AAAAAAAABQs/DY6iFvOhmsM/s400/0223-%24spx.jpg
Cabot (COG) looks like a good short term bear play.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrLqngtQI/AAAAAAAABQ0/pGzPS_zFkZs/s400/0223-cog.jpg
Lehman (LEH) is representative of the investment banks, finally losing their luster.
111111111111111111111111
[*]http://pic.y321.com/picnew/pic/shlingfu/2007212161631_2.jpg
Lehman (LEH) is representative of the investment banks, finally losing their luster.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrL6ngtRI/AAAAAAAABQ8/XnKtsxnjWEM/s400/0223-leh.jpg
I don't have any particular on MWP, but this is a good example of hyperbolic mania.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrMKngtSI/AAAAAAAABRE/IkMz3nvckF4/s400/0223-mwp.jpg
Recent recommendation NVR had almost 40 points whacked off it yesterday.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReBrMKngtTI/AAAAAAAABRM/iV8SQvfNlyo/s400/0223-nvr.jpg
Maybe our filthy paws are starting to get a grip on this deluded market. I hope so.
at 2/24/2007 15 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: $rut, $spx, cog, leh, mwp
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 07:03 编辑 ]
1111111111111111111