一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The $XMI is staring in the face of a grand breakout failure.


AutoZone, which has been up about three million percent in the past few months, is finally breaking. I've got puts. Lots of 'em.


Recent favorite CME is throwing lots of green into my account.


Oh, and then there's Google. The company that could do no wrong. These turds paid $1.6 billion for a web site where people could post mostly stolen content. And they haven't been able to figure out how to make money at it. And now they're getting sued for $1 billion. And I've got a hunch there are other big media companies that will follow. Nice goin', braniacs. Talk about buying at the top. Had they waited a few months, they could have picked up the same company for 1/8th of the price, I bet.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Oh, and then there's Google. The company that could do no wrong. These turds paid $1.6 billion for a web site where people could post mostly stolen content. And they haven't been able to figure out how to make money at it. And now they're getting sued for $1 billion. And I've got a hunch there are other big media companies that will follow. Nice goin', braniacs. Talk about buying at the top. Had they waited a few months, they could have picked up the same company for 1/8th of the price, I bet.


Ah, and Goldman. Yep, you've seen this mentioned here many times. My puts on this did great - - I bought a bunch at the top today. In spite of blowout earnings, they fell down hard on huge volume with a bearish engulfing pattern. Yes!


Wow, it's almost too much pleasure to take. Maybe the bulls will wipe some of the grin off our faces tomorrow, eh? We'll see. Deep down, I'm always hoping we're at the start of something very big that will absolutely destroy those creeps. Hope springs eternal! Go get 'em, a'ight?

at 3/13/2007 25 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $xmi, azo, bzh, cme, fmt, goog, gs, nzd/usd

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hefeiddd

Monday, March 12, 2007Can I Buy an Emotion?
Wow. This market's a snoozer right now.

I know, I know, it's been up. But it's still a bore. Not even two weeks ago, the entire thing was collapsing. Now we're back to the markets just inching around, not really knowing what to do with themselves.

Speaking of boredom, here's my pointless social observation of the day. I eat out a fair bit. I eat a lot of Chinese food in particular - - most of it quite good, since I live in the SF Bay Area. I'd guess I've probably eaten at Chinese restaurants maybe 700 times or more.

I therefore have a pretty good eye about what to expect. Among the stranger phenomenon......which inexplicably bugs me........is the Person Reading At the Table.

Now, if some poor soul is by himself, by all means, read! I'd hate to see a person alone just staring into space. But when you're with a companion.....and typically, it seems to be a wife.....to whip out the newspaper and read it while you await your food is just plain rude.

And it's not like these couples are even exchanging opinions about what they are reading. Only one person is reading, and both of them are staying dead silent. The ignored one - the wife, typically - is just staring into space, probably wondering how she wound up with this total dork. The inclusion of other family members seems to diminish this desire not a whit. Weird.


Oh, yeah. This is supposed to be about technical analysis. Well, my blog, my space, right? But your wish is my command.....

There is formidable resistance around the levels we're at right now. The bad news for us bears is that, should this resistance be broken, it makes an easy argument for the Dow to blast about 400 points higher. I've highlighted the "resistance zone" as it stands now on the S&P 500.


A longer-term view - this one a minute graph of the Dow over the past couple of months - shows there's plenty of upside on the Dow if its only substantial barrier is the underside of that giant broken trendline. Now that would be a real shame. I imagine the bulls have already long forgotten what happened on February 27th. Another few hundred points would make them giddy again. And we all know how nauseating that can be.


The Russell 2000 shows very substantial resistance about the $796 zone, which is where two Fib retracement lines lay in the the same vicinity. A $RUT above $800 would depress poor old Tim mightily.


Just a short ideas to ponder today. CRS on the short side.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Just a short ideas to ponder today. CRS on the short side.


MCD also on the short side, with puts being attractive for you option players.


NBL, with a nice RSI signal and a potential double top, another short idea.


PICO, mentioned here a couple of times already, is having a nice run up. (Happily, this was one of my rare bullish suggestions).

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

PICO, mentioned here a couple of times already, is having a nice run up. (Happily, this was one of my rare bullish suggestions).


I'm more animated and interesting where there's dynamism in the market. Particularly on the downside. Try me again tomorrow. The market muse may have smiled upon me by then. In the meantime, I'd like you to enjoy the adventures of
at 3/12/2007 14 insightful comments
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Labels: crs, mcd, nbl, pico


Friday, March 09, 2007Stalemate
In yesterday's post, I laid out bullish and bearish arguments for the market, since we seem to be in one of those awful stand-offs between the bulls and bears. Today played out in precisely that manner.

The widely-anticipated jobs report came out. The results were interpreted as bullish. The markets zoomed higher at the opening bell. Fibonacci retracements were touched all over the place, and then the market started to soften fast. It went negative. Then positive. Then negative. Then positive. And finally ended with about 1/4th of the gain it had at its high point. Just ridiculous.

I'm 100% in puts and shorts right now. Below are my positions. Boldfaced items are puts.


Here's the Dow 30. You can see it bounces off that Fib beautifully.


And here's the Russell. For the second day in a row, it bounced off the fib. It actually managed to sneak across the line a little, but not for long.


The $SPX is pretty similar to the $INDU.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 17:13 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

The $SPX is pretty similar to the $INDU.


I've got a couple of long suggestions. Here's Bowater (BOW):


And, and even better one, Pico Holdings (PICO), which has the advantage of a big volume surge recently.


A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.


MS, like a lot of other investment banks, has likely retraced to an area where I think it doesn't have the strength to climb any higher.


Microstrategy (MSTR) blew me out a couple of weeks ago, but it was a one-day fake out. This one looks weak.


Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.


Reynolds (RAI) is retracing back to its broken dome pattern. I also have puts on another aluminum stock, symbol AL, but the chart isn't as pretty.


Lastly, symbol RYAAY looks like a low risk/high reward short candidate.


My kids have given me some kind of bug, so I'm typing this with the chills. Even though it is 70 degrees outside, I'm going to go sit in front of the fire! Have a good weekend!
at 3/09/2007 30 insightful comments
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Labels: bbd, bow, msft, mstr, pico, qqqq, rai, ryaay


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Thursday, March 08, 2007This Blog is Carbon Neutral
The bullish push back up from last week's damage continues. At this point, I could go one of two ways. One way is to say that the recovery is over and that we're about to re-enter another bearish leg. Another way is to say there are still several hundred Dow points to go before we re-enter such a leg. Apparently tomorrow morning's economic reports are going to have a lot to do with this.

As for today, the Dow was firm most of the day, but just as with yesterday, it gave up some steam near the end.


The thing is, at this point, just about any chart could be subjected to completely valid bullish or bearish arguments. So just to keep everyone confused, I'm going to show you a few index charts and say one or two bullish and bearish things about each one. First, here's the Russell 2000 on a daily basis:


Bullish Conclusions: There's free sailing until $795 before two simultaneous Fib retracements are reached. And there is a huge amount of room between the current price levels and the underside of that major trendline that was broken - - up to about $810.

Bearish Conclusions: The stock bounced perfectly off its 38.2% retracement today. It showed a lot of strength but couldn't keep it up. It's a nice shooting star pattern (albeit in the middle of a chart).

Now here is the same index on a minute bar basis:


Bullish Conclusions: Largely the same as above. You can see the Fib lines more clearly.

Bearish Conclusions: The astonishing thing to me is how perfectly it obeyed the Fib. The 38.2% retracement level is at 786.78. The high today was 786.75. That's only 00.03 points! Absolutely amazing!

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Here is the S&P 500 on a minute bar basis:


Bullish Conclusions: See that blue line just beneath the current prices? That's a pretty major supporting line. If we rally tomorrow, that line is going to hold strong as major support for a while.

Bearish Conclusions: This also bounced right off the 38.2% retracement.

And here is the same index with daily bars:


Bullish Conclusions: This offers a better view of that huge trendline that used to be resistance but is now support.

Bearish Conclusions: That same line was penetrated, albeit just a little bit, and there is a huge empty space beneath the line representing how far this sucker could fall.

As for the $VIX, I feel pretty good about how much it has fallen. When it was about 20, I made a mental note that it should get down to about 13 to get the hot air out. It has done so. If today is another strong up today, this could lose a couple more points.


AMLN looks like it's close to breaking its huge topping pattern.

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