一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The Major Market ($XMI) is another interesting graph. We've come full circle on the breakout. The downward momentum of this market doesn't seem like a fluke anymore. It feels truly bearish.


Most of the attention has been focused on the rinky-dink sub-prime mortgage lenders. Gigantic blue-chip banks like B of A (BAC) seem vulnerable now. Check out the topping pattern and busted trendline.


Black and Decker sports an interesting diamond-like top.


Purse-maker Coach (COH) has had a great run, but it seems to be history.

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Purse-maker Coach (COH) has had a great run, but it seems to be history.


Google (GOOG) is not a slam-dunk bearish pattern, but busting that supporting trendline would cause some big fireworks. I personally think Joost is going to completely trash YouTube. I'd go so far as to say YouTube may go down as one of the stupidest acquisitions in modern corporate history. But only time will tell. It's great for the sophomoric videos I post here, at least.


MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to have its steam leak out its sides.


And for today's video clip.......Carmen Electra's completely hilarious and unintentional pratfall at a fashion show. Chevy Chase could never mime something this good. Find some good Benny Hill-style music to play while watching this.


at 3/16/2007 20 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 15, 2007Sissyneck
Today's entry will be relatively short.

Not a heck of a lot going on in the market today, although as my "FickleMan!" post suggested, I decided there was a good entry point today when the Dow was up about 50 points. At this point, we are in the upper half of the trading range that has been recently established. The breakout points of this range for the S&P couldn't be more plain:


A similar situation with the $MID, but from a different viewpoint. Look at the Fibonacci levels. The prices are bound between two levels right now, and we're once again in the upper half. Tomorrow morning's economic numbers will almost surely give us a catalyst for breaking out of this range.


The most exciting suggestion from this blog in today's action was the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (symbol CME), which I was  It got absolutely clobbered today, and I not only held on to all the puts, I even added a little to the position. I think great things could come from this trade.


Although my book has been out just a couple of weeks, there are a already you might want to check out in case you were considering getting it. A lot of kind folks have written me about the book, which I appreciate it. It's pretty obvious I have a great interest in yakking about charts!


at 3/15/2007 15 insightful comments
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007Candlesticks Galore
I think it's time to back off for a while.



In many instances, the kinds of clobbering I've been expecting have exhausted themselves, at least in some industries. Take housing, for instance. I first mentioned Meritage Homes (symbol MTH) way back on when the stock was at $58. It lost nearly half its value since that time, so clearly the head and shoulders pattern behaved as expected. But as you can see in the highlighted area near the bottom, there's a bunch of support here, and I think stocks like this have played themselves out to the downside.


That isn't to say that the drop from 12,700 to 12,000 consitutes the Giant Bear Market I've been talking about. Not at all. I'm just saying that, barring an important new catalyst, I can see the bulls taking the reigns again for a bit.

Take today's $INDU, for instance. Support at 12,000 was pierced, but there's a ton of buying interest at that level, so the bears were pushed away, and we had an intraday move of over 200 points.


The MidCap 400 ($MID) is an even clearer example. Look how perfectly it bounced off that Fib retracement level.


The $NDX also held firm. So the failure of the bears to really maul the market indicates to me that the baton was handed back to the bulls in the middle of the trading day today.

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hefeiddd

The $NDX also held firm. So the failure of the bears to really maul the market indicates to me that the baton was handed back to the bulls in the middle of the trading day today.


$RUT (the Russell 2000) likewise showed good Fibonacci obedience.


The S&P 500 shows the pickle that the market is in right now. It's just stuck on that major trendline. A state of equilibrium in the market stinks for traders......but we may soon find ourselves in a trading range based on this tug-of-war.


The Transports also supports the short-term strength theory. A perfect bounce off the supporting trendline.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 08:11 编辑 ]

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The Transports also supports the short-term strength theory. A perfect bounce off the supporting trendline.


I have no new ideas for you today. Sitting on your cash might be wise. Continental is doing pretty good on the short side; I've highlighted a target.


MER touched its trendline perfectly.


Microsoft - which I don't really trade, but it's important to follow - also touched the trendline......to the penny. Although this trendline was broken, I made an exception since it seems to be important to monitoring the stock.

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Microsoft - which I don't really trade, but it's important to follow - also touched the trendline......to the penny. Although this trendline was broken, I made an exception since it seems to be important to monitoring the stock.


I also got out of SHLD today, at a profit. Same reason - - trendline bounce.


So Monday's post had me talking about how boring the market was. And Tuesday was fireworks. Now we're back to boring. I really think, unless something totally shocking happens, we'll be marking time as the $VIX winds its way back down to the lower double digits. In the meantime, enjoy Flunky the Clown from the late 80s....



at 3/14/2007 11 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007Odelay!

The Bear: "Are you an assassin?"

The Bull: "I'm a soldier."

The Bear: "You're neither. You're an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill."

Needless to say days like this make me happy. Particularly since today's 243 point drop on the Dow was within plain sight......two weeks, to the day........of the lovely 400+ point drop on the Dow on February 27th. A new force may be emerging.


Not that long ago - say, last year - I would have been jumping around talking about how it's the end of the world and the bears are going to own everything, and so forth. No more. I've learned a skosh of humility (and paranoia) since then. So I take it a day at a time. All the same, I grin when I imagine what that Australian touch-hole who called me must be going through. Although I'm assuming he has money to lose, which is probably a false hope.

On the occasions when I drive my family up to the mountains of California, we pass many towns that seem completely populated by those completely grotesque and utterly uniform beige-with-red-tile monstrosities that are advertised as "Homes" in the weekend papers. These vile creations seem to be the work of firms like Toll, Pulte, and Beazer, all of whom seem to be going to hell in a handbasket. Maybe there's a little justice in this sad, sick world after all.


The unwinding of the "buy and flip" insanity is crushing the sub-prime lenders which, in turn, is causing we few.........we happy few........to have good days like today. Here's Fremont....


And the poster child of this debacle, New Century. Thanks, fellers! We appreciate your bringing along the kind of disaster we need to start something really horrific!


The story for the indexes is the same across the board, so pay attention: if they can break the lows set next week, it's party time. If they stabilize and recover, we're probably going to be range-bound by something approximating today's range. Here's the NASDAQ composite with a potential target circled.

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The story for the indexes is the same across the board, so pay attention: if they can break the lows set next week, it's party time. If they stabilize and recover, we're probably going to be range-bound by something approximating today's range. Here's the NASDAQ composite with a potential target circled.


The minute by minute charts illustrate how the bullish breakout that was attempting to form completely failed. Disappointed bulls! Our specialty! Die, you weasels....


My favorite index, the Russell 2000, needs to break below $760 for us to continue to celebrate.


Here's a minute chart of the $RUT with more detail. An analysis of the psyches which pushed the market up, and then down, are provided for your convenience.

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Here's a minute chart of the $RUT with more detail. An analysis of the psyches which pushed the market up, and then down, are provided for your convenience.


This is getting old, but here we go - the S&P 500.....


And the minute graph of the same.......


The $XMI is staring in the face of a grand breakout failure.

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