一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

AMLN looks like it's close to breaking its huge topping pattern.


Chicago Mercantile (CME) was up a bit today, so my puts suffered some, but I still love this chart. Satan himself continues to speak through this blog - note the eerie point change today.


And what can you say about a stock like Google which actually falls on such a strong up day. Something tells me the leadership days of this stock are a thing of the past.


Tomorrow should be the most interesting day of the week. Let's hope it's interesting in a good way. See you then.
at 3/08/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, cme, goog

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I continue to be fascinating by the NZD/USD trade. I don't think I've ever seen a market bounce off Fib retracements this predictably. It is incredible! Continued weakness here can only be good for U.S. stock bears.


The behavior of the Dow recently has been fascinating. (1) shows the point where the market was bottoming out and beginning to get the confidence to turn back up. At (2) it completes a beautiful saucer pattern, and it accelerates to (3). The market begins softening, which causes short-term worry, but then it regains its strength and zooms to (4). Now the bulls are starting to feel really good. But the drop from point (4) to point (5) is what this market is all about.......dashed hopes.......and, to me, is a strong sign that we may be headed for more marvelous weakness.


Here's a short term chart of my favorite index short, the Russell 2000. I don't know why the bid/ask spreads on this, a much more thinly traded option, are so much more reasonable than the gigantic S&P options, whose bid/ask is a complete rip-off. In any case, the horizontal line at 782 is my stop loss point.


A longer term view of the same index reveals the many Fib retracements I've laid down.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

A longer term view of the same index reveals the many Fib retracements I've laid down.


Now for a few short picks. Bank of America (BAC) seems to have exhausted its recovery.


Continental Airlines (CAL) is right at the cusp of a full blown breakdown.


I am madly in love with my CME puts right now. This stock looks so juicy you can just about cut it with a steak knife.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

I am madly in love with my CME puts right now. This stock looks so juicy you can just about cut it with a steak knife.


I haven't touched Google (GOOG) in ages, but I picked up some puts today.


MWP looks like a good short play on a hyperbolic stock.


And Reynolds (RAI) is a very clear toppy pattern.



And Reynolds (RAI) is a very clear toppy pattern.


I read the big economic news isn't until Friday morning. In spite of that, both Thursday and Friday are bound to be fascinating! See you again soon.........

at 3/07/2007 21 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 16:27 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 16:28 编辑 ]

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Monday, March 05, 2007The Wow Starts Now



Those of you who took advantage of my New Zealand suggestion (made precisely at the top), send me some flowers or something! I mean, I nailed this thing totally on the head. Little did I know that this currency flux would be driving a worldwide plunge in equity markets.


Part of the freak-out today was from the continuing damage caused by feckless "flipper" real estate twits. Just take a look at sample financing company getting trashed.


My suggestion on BP continues to do well.


And Carnival, purveyor to obese, bored "travelers", continues to fall as well, as I've mentioned it would many times.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-3 17:37 编辑 ]

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And Carnival, purveyor to obese, bored "travelers", continues to fall as well, as I've mentioned it would many times.


Take a look at the Fibs on the Greater China Fund. Looks like we're in for a bounce, doesn't it?


Lehman is just one example of many of stocks that seem to have had the air taken out of them but are reaching support levels. In this instance, based on Fib fans.


Another victim of the housing collapse - MTH. Once again, a short I suggested many, many points ago.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Another victim of the housing collapse - MTH. Once again, a short I suggested many, many points ago.


But today was just maddening, as I said. Look at SPY. The horizontal line shows what I thought would be the support level. In the morning, we started bouncing higher (as I imagine we will tomorrow morning). All day the market farted around. And then, as shown by the highlighted area, we got whacked.


One long idea for ya - UNP.


I've got to scoot. My equity puts have been doing fantastic. But I'm a complete moron for selling those index puts. Ugh. What a rotten feeling. I can only hope we get a nice fat bounce so I get a second chance. *Sniff*.
at 3/05/2007 9 insightful comments
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Labels: ahm, bp, ccl, gch, leh, mth, nzd/usd, spy, unp

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hefeiddd

The cold fact is that there's probably a bounce in here somewhere. I closed out all my Russell puts this morning, and I have no index shorts now. I have a ton of equity puts, and all the charts look great, so even with a bounce, I'm happy to hang on.


It remains to be seen how much more downward movement will be wrung out of this spasm. I, for one, would prefer to see a nice fat bounce, have the bulls rest on their fat, stupid butts again, and then go in for the kill. Until then, let's wait,
at 3/05/2007 9 insightful comments
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Friday, March 02, 2007Bear With Me
(Note to my readers and purchasers of my book - - Amazon is finally letting you review it! So if you've got it - - or if you just want to pretend you do and want to do poor ol' Tim a favor - free, it's fun, and you'll feel good about yourself!)

This week was awesome. An absolute delight (well, kind of - more on that in a moment). This is the kind of week we bears love. The beauty of falls is how quickly they happen. The fraudulent bulls (redundant, eh?) have been skittering around talking about a "melt up" in the market. What utter crap.

I checked my records, and I've marked with an arrow the day that our Australian friend (well, at least he wanted me to think so - - I doubt even Aussies say "mate" every third word) left his wimpy voicemail deriding me for my blog. You remember him, right? The fellow who told me his girlfriend thought I was dorky looking? (And I didn't even know right hands could talk!) Here's what the market has done since he left his message:


There is divine justice in that. When the bulls become so cocksure as to take their valuable time leaving hateful voicemails (anonymous, naturally). In his clumsy English, he muttered something about a blog he likes where the permabull was "absolutely brilliant." Yeah, well. There ya go. I hope you loaded up on S&P calls they day you left me your voicemail, you complete twit.

The mainstream headlines show how biased the world is against us. Just check out this headline - "worst" week. Come on! It was the BEST week! That's like saying a rainy day is "bad" weather and a hot, sunny day is "beautiful."

Ya know what? I happen to love rainy days. And I hate hot sunny days. So let's stick to the facts, shall we? If the day is sunny, it's sunny. Not nice. And if the market is down, it's down. There's nothing "worst" about it. I am personally thrilled to pieces.



Enough self-flagellation. I had a good week otherwise. (Even though I'm still an idiot.) I have one chart here that provides a good case for a bullish bounce on Monday. Here's the S&P 500. It's hitting a major Fib level. And it's hitting the topside of that former resistance line. And the Chinese freak-out might take a break. Now, I have a buttload of Russell puts right now, so I don't want a bounce. But it could happen.


Most of the index graphs I have from here on point to plenty more room for declines. I'm not going to provide much in the way of stock charts today. I'm really charted out from this week. You should spend your time [url=http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buying my book[/url] and reading it, don't you think? Anyway........

Here's the NASDAQ Composite. Plenty of room left on the downside of this channel. Man, I can't believe I dumped those $MSH puts. OK, OK, I'll stop.


A longer view of the $COMPQ shows just how sick this miserable index is.

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hefeiddd

A longer view of the $COMPQ shows just how sick this miserable index is.


The $NDX is somewhat similar.


And here's the $NDX on the long view (if any of you are n00bs, click the image to see a much bigger version).


The $OEX is at the midpoint between its Fibonacci retracement levels. (Don't understand what I'm talking about? Didn't I mention you should [url=http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buy [/url]my book? Ahem!)

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

The $OEX is at the midpoint between its Fibonacci retracement levels. (Don't understand what I'm talking about? Didn't I mention you should [url=http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buy [/url]my book? Ahem!)


The Major Market Index ($XMI) could be argued as bullish. It had an explosive rise following the breakout above that horizontal line, and it's just about done fully retracing it. If the market does bounce, this would be a great short-term bullish play.


BP, which I've mentioned countless times, is swooning.


Umm, gosh, just one stock chart. Well, look, like I said, I'm charted out. But I have to piss and moan about something. And it's kind of relevant. Bear with me.

This has to do with FX trading. As you know, I've been hawking shorting the New Zealand dollar big time. And I haven't checked, but I'm pretty confident this has been the best performing currency play anywhere in the world recently. So - thank you, thank you, happy to be of service. However............

FX trading is highly leveraged. And the weird thing is that if you get pushed into a margin call, your broker (or at least mine) closes 100% of every single position you've got. So you can have a million dollars worth of positions spread across ten currencies, and if you get a $50 margin call, they will immediately close everything out! Is that outrageous, or what?

So, of course, that's what happened to me. Yesterday I shorted a bunch of NZD/USD. I woke up this morning to see it had completely collapsed. But did I have a profit? No. I had a loss. How, beloved Tim, is this possible? It's because my broker closed me out when the NZD tiptoed a little higher, closed my position, and then it collapsed into what would have been a multi hundred percent profit in one day.


The downward-pointing arrow on the left is a profit I did enjoy. The downward-pointing arrow on the right is the one I got cheated out of. So - you FX traders - is this the case with every brokerage? Let me know!

But there is something technically interested. Look at how the NZD plays off those Fib lines. I mean, my God, is that incredible. It's practically supernatural! And the marvelous way this exotic currency behaves makes me even angrier, since I totally understand this market, and yet my stupid broker's policies cheated me out of a lot of cash. Grrrrrrrrrr.

Anyway, I was wishing for a market that would start to pummel the bulls, and for this week at least, I got it. We bears have been cheated repeatedly out of our market, and I have been humbled enough to say it could happen again. This could be just another trick. And volatility might get pushed back down into the single digits. And we'll all be sitting on our paws again.

But, I've got to tell you, it's a fantastic change to see the bulls suffering. No one deserves it more, and no more deserves less pity. The bears are the ones with brains, and the bears.......for just this week, if nothing else......have bested their inferiors.
at 3/02/2007 34 insightful comments
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