一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

This is going to be one of those danged "airport posts" which are shorter than normal, since I am frantically typing prior to rushing onto my plane. Forgive me!

The markets were nice yesterday for us bears, although I wouldn't be surprised if we took a breather here for a bit. The NASDAQ 100 does a fair job of showing how tired this market is, possibly moving into our dreamed-of lower highs/lower lows scenario.


Perennial favorite Russell 2000 is resting on top of its Fib retracement, which could mean a bounce up today. I really need it to penetrate through this line to move to the next logical level.


Apple has been a powerhouse, but I think it's a great put candidate now. Oh, and by the way, my experience with AppleTV completely sucked. I returned it the next day. Disaster.


FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.

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FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.


McDonalds as a short......I'm lovin' it.


Here are my current positions......actually, the screen wasn't big enough to show them all. As usual, put options are shown in bold. See ya this evening!


at 3/29/2007 7 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007Freedom of Choice
Subtle product placement prior to writing this post: buy [url=http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]my book[/url] Better your life! Be the envy of your neighbors and the hero of your friends! God knows you could make your life better than it is now.

I thought my soul-baring post yesterday on why I am a bear would attract some interest, but I didn't quite anticipate what kind. I'm starting to feel like a polemicist. A lot of comments, a lot of linkbacks, and a fair bit of rabble rousing.

Markets aren't typically very easy to explain, but right now, it is. So here we go: if the indexes soon push above the highs we saw last Friday, it's back to wait-and-see, gosh-life-sucks mode for the bears. If we stay in the trading range established over last week and the week prior, we could be stuck there a while. And if we break beneath the low seen two weeks ago, it's party time. Simple as that.

Let me offer one potentially short-term bullish scenario in the graph below. It could be conjectured that the strength we saw last week was the true direction of the market, and the past couple of days have simply been a retracement. It could be argued that this is just a launching-off point for the bulls and we will continue with last week's strength.


Judging at least from this evening's GLOBEX session and the news that a major homebuilder is looking at sweeping Federal fraud charges, maybe the descent of the past couple of days is more representative of the market's direction. After all, plenty of feckless speculators in the real estate world are just starting to get slammed.

Let me show you what I mean by the highs of last week by way of the S&P 400 MidCap index. $857.23 is the stop price. Bang, it's just that simple. Cross above it, and Tim is unhappy. Continue to sink away from it, and Tim is glad. And the latter is what we all want, isn't it?


Here's perennial favorite $RUT, the Russell 2000. The lines speak for themselves:


The minute graph of the same index shows the support zone the bulls have on their side. There needs to be a robust run through this for the bears to survive.

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The minute graph of the same index shows the support zone the bulls have on their side. There needs to be a robust run through this for the bears to survive.


I like Chevron (CVX) as a short (long puts). Looks like a potential double top, and the risk is quite low.


The DIA is the umpteenth example I could show how this market has shaped up. The stop-loss point is close enough to be relatively low risk, and the potential gains from that huge air pocket beneath makes it worthwhile. The green tint shows the bull zone. The red tint shows the bear zone - - which, as with most things associated with bears, is bigger.



Goldman Sachs has the potential to be a train wreck, which would be fantastic, of course. A stock this expensive can probably some incredible juicy returns for put owners.

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Goldman Sachs has the potential to be a train wreck, which would be fantastic, of course. A stock this expensive can probably some incredible juicy returns for put owners.


Same story with MER. I really like how the investment banks are behaving.


PG represents a more conservative play. I like these giant consumer stocks because the options volume is big enough to get the bid/ask reasonable, and you are not going to wake up one morning to hear that the toilet paper they sell is a miracle cancer cure, sending the stock up 100 points.


RYAAY is tumbling nicely, moving away from that busted trendline.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-2 17:20 编辑 ]

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RYAAY is tumbling nicely, moving away from that busted trendline.


I've highlighted SPY to beat this dead horse.


Lord knows you're probably not here for charts for instead of the occasional videos I find. Pull out your Facts of Life commemorative bong, light up, and enjoy:







at 3/26/2007 34 insightful comments
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Friday, March 23, 2007Grind It Out, Part Deux
Photocopy yesterday's entry and make it today's. Not satisfied with that? Sigh. I feel a sense of duty to put up a post for today, in spite of little new to say.

Here, I've got a chart to show you. Something to get us away from the tick-by-tick obsession of this market (which, granted, sucked for bears - every single day this week was positive for the Dow).

This graph shows a huge, secular bull market followed by a bear market, and then a push to new highs. Let's call it Graph #1.


The next graph is very similar. Again, a huge bull market........then a bear market .....and then a push to new highs. We'll call this Graph #2.


What is interesting to me is this......what happened to Graph #1 in the years that followed? This is shown below. Year after year of a market that ground away, going nowhere. Actually, if you take inflation into account, it could be argued this was a sixteen-year long bear market. Suffice it to say equities wasn't a good place to be.


My theory is that Graph #2 - which spans from the early 1980s right up to the present day - could be a repeat of the same behavior. That is, yes, we've made new highs, but we're in the midst of a very long "grind it out" market which, in retrospect, will be a debacle for the market in general.

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Here's another way of making the same point: below is a chart of the S&P 500. I've highlighted the most recent dip (2000-2002) and rise (2002-present).


Here is a close-up of the same area. And my point is this: bull markets are not launched from charts that look like this. There's no base. No jumping off spot. No massive consolidation that is about to explode to the upside. I can't state it any more simply: bull markets do not commence with graphs that look like this.


On a shorter-term note, it was interesting to me that the NASDAQ 100 actually inched down today. We are near the top of the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI is trending down.


The NASDAQ Composite is a similar story. In both cases, I think the retracement is completely, and we spend the past couple of days marking time. I've highlighted the "2/27 gap". It hasn't even closed that gap.


One last graph before I send you off on your weekend: The Amex Major Market Index ($XMI). I've simplified this by showing just the 78.6% retracement. I will be stunned, amazed (and a lot poorer) if the market pushes higher next week. It simply shouldn't happen. But then again, the market doesn't consult with me before doing its own thing! Good night, and good luck..........


at 3/23/2007 24 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 22, 2007Grind It Out
I know a lot of you spend a lot of time worrying about a gift to buy me, particularly since no one was able to come through with a I will welcome this surprisingly frank Batman water pistol in its stead.


And for your daily Unlikely Juxtaposition of Books, I offer this snapshot I took in my local Borders bookstore. It's not crystal-clear, I realize, but on the right of this New Non Fiction selection is Hillary Clinton's "It Takes a Village" retread, and on the left is a book about sexual pleasure for women. I'm surprised one of these books did not leap to the floor under its own power.


Oh, yeah. Charts. I almost forgot. Today was one of those grind-it-out bore-fests where the markets.......how do the rah-rahs say it?........oh, yes, "digest" their gains. This still falls in line with what I was looking to unfold: specifically, the end of a full retracement before the fall resumes.


The daily candle yields a similar picture. Notice the spinning top today. I've marked another recent spinning top, which happened to be at the very peak of the market.


All the charts that follow tell the same story, so I'll just net it out for you here: (1) plunge after 2/27 (2) consolidation (3) turbocharged retracement to approximately 2/27 levels. My speculation, and where I'm putting my cash at this point, is that the markets will resume their fall. The rest of today's entry will be little more than tickers and graphs. Here's the gold and silver index (XAU):


AHM (part of the sub-prime world):

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AHM (part of the sub-prime world):


BAC (a huge bank, but a beautiful chart nonetheless):


Bear Stearns (BSC):


Continental (CAL), mentioned countless times here, having completely a lovely head and shoulders retracement to the neckline.

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