一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Friday, March 30, 2007Shoving Match
The bulls and bears are really starting to hate each other. Today was a total shoving match. First the market blasts higher. Then it does about a 150 point reversal. It ends the day basically unchanged. Just look at the action over the past couple of weeks. You can see where the bulls and bears are starting to brawl at the red and green markers I've laid out.


The first quarter of the year is over, and in the coming weeks we can look forward to earnings season - - to, once again, see if there is anything that will give this market some direction. If you believe it has direction, you're wrong. Let's examine the percentage change of the major U.S. indices.

The Dow 30 - three months of trading - and basically unchanged.


The NASDAQ - basically unchanged.


The S&P 500 - basically unchanged.


Even the Gold & Silver index ($XAU) - basically unchanged. What......a..........bore!





at 3/30/2007 34 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 29, 2007Dead Letter Office


Actually, I'm not at airports much. It's even written in my employment contract that business travel will be minimal - - I miss reading nighttime books to my kids too much for that sort of thing. It probably seems like a lot because I bellyache about it when I'm on the road.

OK, on to charts. The market opened strong today, fell for most of the day (which got me excited that maybe we'd push through that Fibonacci retracement level), but then unfortunately recovered about 60% of the day's initial gain. Kind of disappointing, but not surprising. Remember, just this morning I mentioned how we'd probably have to take a 'breather.' This is what I was talking about.


The NASDAQ 100 shows the same story. We're in a tight trading range now. Break above it, and we're going to probably have to wait a while. Break below it, and our revenge will be swift and terrible.


Yep, here's the Russell. It held that Fib level fairly well. Just look at the huge amount of action I've highlighted. Even if we do push below the Fib, that's a lot of muck we have to drill through.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Yep, here's the Russell. It held that Fib level fairly well. Just look at the huge amount of action I've highlighted. Even if we do push below the Fib, that's a lot of muck we have to drill through.


Dow Theory fans who are bullish probably can't really count on the Transports helping them out. This doesn't look like a bullish setup to me.


And $XMI has "drop/retracement/drop again" written all over it.


A few specific bearish mentions. You're going to see more energy stocks today than normal. I think they've topped out. Here's Cabot (COG):

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

A few specific bearish mentions. You're going to see more energy stocks today than normal. I think they've topped out. Here's Cabot (COG):


AMLN is a huge top, although it could be a fakeout. Its descent has stalled for a bit.


Black and Decker has broken a rare diamond pattern.


ESRX looks sharp. And check out my spiffy trendlines! Pretty, eh?

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

ESRX looks sharp. And check out my spiffy trendlines! Pretty, eh?


Goldman Sachs (yes, Leisa, I've still got those puts) has moving averages which are starting to converge after its huge run-up.


Noble Energy (NBL) is very high and is a low-risk put play.


Same with OXY.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Same with OXY.


Copper magnate PCU is high enough to be safe again.


PSB is a bit iffy, but with a tight stop it could be a good play.



And now we come to the Tim Knight selection of your video today. It may be one of the most depressing things you'll ever see. Yes. It's Christian Clown Training. Consider yourself warned.



at 3/29/2007 14 insightful comments
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hefeiddd

This is going to be one of those danged "airport posts" which are shorter than normal, since I am frantically typing prior to rushing onto my plane. Forgive me!

The markets were nice yesterday for us bears, although I wouldn't be surprised if we took a breather here for a bit. The NASDAQ 100 does a fair job of showing how tired this market is, possibly moving into our dreamed-of lower highs/lower lows scenario.


Perennial favorite Russell 2000 is resting on top of its Fib retracement, which could mean a bounce up today. I really need it to penetrate through this line to move to the next logical level.


Apple has been a powerhouse, but I think it's a great put candidate now. Oh, and by the way, my experience with AppleTV completely sucked. I returned it the next day. Disaster.


FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.


McDonalds as a short......I'm lovin' it.


Here are my current positions......actually, the screen wasn't big enough to show them all. As usual, put options are shown in bold. See ya this evening!


at 3/29/2007 7 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007Freedom of Choice
Subtle product placement prior to writing this post: buy [url=http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]my book[/url] Better your life! Be the envy of your neighbors and the hero of your friends! God knows you could make your life better than it is now.

I thought my soul-baring post yesterday on why I am a bear would attract some interest, but I didn't quite anticipate what kind. I'm starting to feel like a polemicist. A lot of comments, a lot of linkbacks, and a fair bit of rabble rousing.

Markets aren't typically very easy to explain, but right now, it is. So here we go: if the indexes soon push above the highs we saw last Friday, it's back to wait-and-see, gosh-life-sucks mode for the bears. If we stay in the trading range established over last week and the week prior, we could be stuck there a while. And if we break beneath the low seen two weeks ago, it's party time. Simple as that.

Let me offer one potentially short-term bullish scenario in the graph below. It could be conjectured that the strength we saw last week was the true direction of the market, and the past couple of days have simply been a retracement. It could be argued that this is just a launching-off point for the bulls and we will continue with last week's strength.


Judging at least from this evening's GLOBEX session and the news that a major homebuilder is looking at sweeping Federal fraud charges, maybe the descent of the past couple of days is more representative of the market's direction. After all, plenty of feckless speculators in the real estate world are just starting to get slammed.

Let me show you what I mean by the highs of last week by way of the S&P 400 MidCap index. $857.23 is the stop price. Bang, it's just that simple. Cross above it, and Tim is unhappy. Continue to sink away from it, and Tim is glad. And the latter is what we all want, isn't it?


Here's perennial favorite $RUT, the Russell 2000. The lines speak for themselves:


The minute graph of the same index shows the support zone the bulls have on their side. There needs to be a robust run through this for the bears to survive.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

The minute graph of the same index shows the support zone the bulls have on their side. There needs to be a robust run through this for the bears to survive.


I like Chevron (CVX) as a short (long puts). Looks like a potential double top, and the risk is quite low.


The DIA is the umpteenth example I could show how this market has shaped up. The stop-loss point is close enough to be relatively low risk, and the potential gains from that huge air pocket beneath makes it worthwhile. The green tint shows the bull zone. The red tint shows the bear zone - - which, as with most things associated with bears, is bigger.



Goldman Sachs has the potential to be a train wreck, which would be fantastic, of course. A stock this expensive can probably some incredible juicy returns for put owners.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Goldman Sachs has the potential to be a train wreck, which would be fantastic, of course. A stock this expensive can probably some incredible juicy returns for put owners.


Same story with MER. I really like how the investment banks are behaving.


PG represents a more conservative play. I like these giant consumer stocks because the options volume is big enough to get the bid/ask reasonable, and you are not going to wake up one morning to hear that the toilet paper they sell is a miracle cancer cure, sending the stock up 100 points.


RYAAY is tumbling nicely, moving away from that busted trendline.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-2 17:20 编辑 ]

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