一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Goldman Sachs gave me at least a little relief. Even on a strong up day, it was weak.


Tech giant IBM, on which I also own puts, also was surprisingly weak.


I'm looking at MLM for a new short position.


I've been short MSTR for a couple of weeks, based on the failed breakout you see highlighted here. So far, so good.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

I've been short MSTR for a couple of weeks, based on the failed breakout you see highlighted here. So far, so good.


MWP is in a tight range. It's going to break one way or the other soon. I have no position at this time on this one.


Someone mentioned last week the stock ONT. I felt strongly bullish on it based on the breakout and volume strength. It has moved up handsomely since then and looks better than ever.


SCHN (Schnitzer Steel - try saying that five times fast) has a hugely bullish pattern too.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

SCHN (Schnitzer Steel - try saying that five times fast) has a hugely bullish pattern too.


SWN, mentioned here bullishly before, looks even better.


If you think oil stocks are going to weaken, XOM is a pretty-good looking short/put candidate.


As you can see from today's posting, it's more of a bullish/bearish mix. My frothing-at-the-mouth bearishness has become really attenuated by the market's action recently. It's disappointing. I shall continue to watch, wait, and hope.
at 4/14/2007 57 insightful comments
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Thursday, April 12, 2007B.T.D. or ABC?
The debate raging around U.S. equities these days seems to fall into two camps (for technicians, at least). Whether the current strategy should be what I would refer to as B.T.D. (Buy The Dips) or ABC (as in Elliott Wave Theory). The latter would fall into the bearish camp, and the former are permabulls.

For those who follow the comments section of this blog - - and I'm addicted to it - - you can see quite a few people point to action like yesterday's as simply another buying opportunity. (Sort of like how Realtors are always saying there has never been a better time to buy a house). In other words, the market will, by and large, go up until the end of time, so buying when stocks go "on sale" is the way to go.

That has worked very well so far. Those who have bought on the dips over the past three or four years have done terrific. So it's beguiling to just keep doing the same thing in perpetuity.

But let's look at the ABC point-of-view. Here's the classic notion of Elliott Wave price action: the 1/2/3/4/5 series shows the bullish phase, whereas the A/B/C shows the bearish phase. (Please note I pride myself on being an accomplished chartist, but I only know enough about Elliott Wave to hurt myself; so I may be a little off the mark in some of this terminology).


As an example of this kind of behavior, let's take a look at the Russell 2000 index from late 2004 until mid 2006. I've drawn some lines here and noted the various phases. As you can see, things line up pretty nicely. I've also drawn a big solid circle indicating the completion of the "b" wave, which is the retracement within a bearish phase. (Newbies: click the image to see a much bigger chart).


Now here is the more recent Russell 2000, going up to the present day. I will say straightaway that the pattern is not nearly as clean and clear. But, as the big circle indicates, the possibility I have been asserting is that all this bullish action over the past six weeks has been a "b" wave retracement. What we bears are (sick and tired of...) waiting for is for "c" to kick in.


I wrote a few days ago about my bullish disposition toward energy stocks. This morning I bought - yep, bought - SLB and SWN based on this point of view. Both of these moved up handsomely. As you can see by OIH, below, there seems to be a nice breakout for these stocks based on an inverted H&S pattern.


Let's see if Friday the 13th (tomorrow) gives the bulls the kind of bad luck we've been waiting for. But today's strength was disconcerting. A push tomorrow above the highs of April 10th would be just another nail in the bearish coffin.


at 4/12/2007 53 insightful comments
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hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 11, 2007Eight is Enough
Well, the octet of upswings in the market met a welcome halt today. Between the real estate market going down the toilet and the Fed gritting their teeth and confessing that the economy is starting to weaken, the market got the kind of one-two punch in the face it needed.

One catalyst for the drop in late February was the carry-forward trade. The NZD/USD nicely captured this (shown in green). As you can see, this FX has been pushing higher and higher (in spite of staying obediently below the broken trendline). A weakening here would portend good fortune.


Much of the indices resemble the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX), shown below - - basically, a slip from the huge upswing we've seen over the past six weeks (which I consider a retracement that will precede a much bigger drop).


My favorite index puts - the Russell 2000 - had a pretty good day. I've adjusted the stop to 816.13 on these.


And here's the S&P 500 ($SPX). Check out the RSI and Slow Stochastic indicators.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

And here's the S&P 500 ($SPX). Check out the RSI and Slow Stochastic indicators.


Gold & Silver ($XAU) seems to have reached the top of its descending channel. I've got a big block of puts on this index now too.


One of the most resilient indexes, the American Stock Exchange Major Market Index ($XMI), may have double-topped. I hope so, at least. God can't hate me that much.


A high-risk bullish play might be found with - believe it or not - some of the battered sub-prime lenders. Check out Fremont (FMT). The monster volume and triple bottom might mean a nice bounce higher. Of course, you could also wake up one morning and find one of these companies has declared bankruptcy, a la NEW. That's why I'm not going to touch it myself.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

A high-risk bullish play might be found with - believe it or not - some of the battered sub-prime lenders. Check out Fremont (FMT). The monster volume and triple bottom might mean a nice bounce higher. Of course, you could also wake up one morning and find one of these companies has declared bankruptcy, a la NEW. That's why I'm not going to touch it myself.


General Growth Properties (GGP) finally took a tumble on some very sizable volume. Lots of room left before it hits that trendline.


Tired old has-been Microsoft (MSFT) seems to have a nice H&S pattern.


NutriSystem (NTRI), favorite stock of departed commenter hurricane5, is again in my portfolio. No surprise here, folks - I've got puts on it. Another nice H&S pattern, in my opinion.

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hefeiddd

NutriSystem (NTRI), favorite stock of departed commenter hurricane5, is again in my portfolio. No surprise here, folks - I've got puts on it. Another nice H&S pattern, in my opinion.


PSB continues to shape up nicely. I'm jumping the gun a bit on the pattern, but as long as it's shaping up as roughly drawn here, I'm a happy fella.


Reynolds (RAI) is finally started to sink. It's about flippin' time.


Someone commented that getting a long series of modestly down days would be better than one whammo day like we had on February 27th. I'm inclined to agree. But cruel fortune doesn't care. We simply have to take it a day at a time.
at 4/11/2007 33 insightful comments
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007Energy's Strength
It's true - the market (as measured by the Dow 30) was up for the 8th day in a row today. This hasn't happened since 2003. So the press is all over that.

Less touted is the fact that today, for instance, the Dow was up all of 4.71 points. In percentage terms, that's the equivalent of a person with a six-figure income rushing home to tell their spouse their gross salary is going up $37.45 per year. Whoo hoo!

One quick note on American Home Mortgage (AHM) before we get started in earnest..... the stock continues to tumble. The tough part - and this is always much tougher than picking out opening positions - is when to close it. I took a look at a long-term chart, and the next really meaty support level is literally in the $6.50 to $7.00 range. Does that mean the stock will go that low? I have no idea. But this short position looks even better today than it did yesterday.


As for the market in general.....same story from me. Take a look at the DIA graph below. The bulls just keep wrenching things higher, but we're still below that busted trendline. Looking at this one graph, it seems the bulls are losing steam. But we know how easily they can recharge those locomotives, don't we?


I've been impressed and surprised by the strength of energy stocks. I have a substantial investment in natural gas fields, so I'm happy to see NG prices creep higher. But my feeling a few days ago that oil stocks were topped out was off the mark.

What's tough about buying into hot stocks is that it's difficult to see them going higher. But they often do. Here's a great example....Entergy (ETR), shown below, had pushed into a new high of about $78. Not that many months before, this has been a stock trading in the high 20s. It's hard to get excited about getting into a stock that has risen hundreds of percent like this.

hefeiddd

What's tough about buying into hot stocks is that it's difficult to see them going higher. But they often do. Here's a great example....Entergy (ETR), shown below, had pushed into a new high of about $78. Not that many months before, this has been a stock trading in the high 20s. It's hard to get excited about getting into a stock that has risen hundreds of percent like this.


But look what happened after the breakout (shown with the same horizontal line). This sucker just kept climbing. I admit that I am lousy about getting into stocks pushing into new highs.....it just seems too risky. But the fact is that this is how fortunes are made. Technical breakouts on strong volume often indicate many more gains ahead.


But when thinking about energy stocks, it often helps to at least have a passing awareness of what the commodity itself is doing. The main one, crude oil, has a long-term chart shown below. Obviously oil has had an amazing push skyward since the late 90s, blasting off about 600%. I'll leave it to you to decide where you think oil might go next. I truly have no strong opinion.


Looking closer, it could be argued that there's a head and shoulders pattern in the recent history. Not a textbook-beautiful one, but a visible one nonetheless. That would suggest future weakness. But, again, I truly have no strong view on where energy prices might be going.

hefeiddd

What's tough about buying into hot stocks is that it's difficult to see them going higher. But they often do. Here's a great example....Entergy (ETR), shown below, had pushed into a new high of about $78. Not that many months before, this has been a stock trading in the high 20s. It's hard to get excited about getting into a stock that has risen hundreds of percent like this.


But look what happened after the breakout (shown with the same horizontal line). This sucker just kept climbing. I admit that I am lousy about getting into stocks pushing into new highs.....it just seems too risky. But the fact is that this is how fortunes are made. Technical breakouts on strong volume often indicate many more gains ahead.


But when thinking about energy stocks, it often helps to at least have a passing awareness of what the commodity itself is doing. The main one, crude oil, has a long-term chart shown below. Obviously oil has had an amazing push skyward since the late 90s, blasting off about 600%. I'll leave it to you to decide where you think oil might go next. I truly have no strong opinion.


Looking closer, it could be argued that there's a head and shoulders pattern in the recent history. Not a textbook-beautiful one, but a visible one nonetheless. That would suggest future weakness. But, again, I truly have no strong view on where energy prices might be going.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:20 编辑 ]

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