一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Monday, April 30, 2007Here's Your Pickle Surprise, Pal....
One of the readers of this blog posted a link to an interesting article called that you might find of interest. Here is an excerpt:

"As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money. 'The mechanism is surprisingly simple,' he wrote. 'Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism.'

"And it becomes self-sustaining. 'The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you.'"

"My colleagues suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase and perhaps they are right. ... In which case, pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain."

So - encouraging in a way, although discouraging in another. I strongly believe, as readers of this blog know by now, that we are in the midst of the hugest Ponzi scheme in human history, and one day it's going to completely collapse. The question is whether that "day" is tomorrow or five years from now. One thing in certain - between now and then, the bulls will persist in posting their taunts here. Although at least to a lesser degree, now that the shield of anonymity has been taken away.

One other article of interest is , emailed to me by another thoughtful reader.

Today is the best day I've seen in a long time for my portfolio. I sometimes wonder on days like this is our national nightmare is finally over. One day does not a trend make (or break), so that remains to be seen. All the same, as you can see from this chart of the $INDU, the big boys gave up some ground, and the cyclic indicators are looking mighty encouraging.


The NASDAQ Composite, which has been weaker than the Dow, also fell. The key difference is that it was down pretty much all day, whereas the Dow sported a 40+ point gain at one point in the day before shriveling away.


My favorite index, the Russell 2000, fell the hardest. I like what I see here.


The S&P 500 remains above its former resistance, but any further drop will pierce that line and put us back into that gigantic upward-sloping channel.

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The S&P 500 remains above its former resistance, but any further drop will pierce that line and put us back into that gigantic upward-sloping channel.


The Gold & Silver index, which has been mercifully weak, continued to fall today. This is one of the cleanest, prettiest channels around.


As for the $XMI, it has kissed the underside of its former support line and is now heading in a more intelligent direction.


Ironically, I don't have much time today, so this is going to be a quick post with hardly any specific stock symbols. I offer here a few short suggestions (but not nearly as many as I could.....) There's Akamai (AKAM):

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Ironically, I don't have much time today, so this is going to be a quick post with hardly any specific stock symbols. I offer here a few short suggestions (but not nearly as many as I could.....) There's Akamai (AKAM):


Affiliated Managers Group (AMG):


Avalon Bay (AVB):


MWP is turning down hard:

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MWP is turning down hard:


PVH is not as clean as the others, but it has certainly lost a lot of momentum.


Hopefully I will have more time tomorrow. Thousands of people come to read this blog every day, and I'm flattered and grateful for your interest. If the blog is this popular during this air-headed runup in prices, I can only imagine its popularity when we actually enter a honest-to-God bear market. Until then, I can only yearn to trade stupid, except for occasional days like today.

at 4/30/2007 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $indu, $rut, $spx, akam, amg, apc, avb, mvp

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:04 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:16 编辑 ]

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         Friday, April 27, 2007Kick the Clay that Holds the Teeth In
As a true sign of the times, here's a 16 year old girl that is confident her business will make her a billionaire not just in her lifetime, but by the time she's 25. OK, sister, good luck with that.

I've mentioned the correlation between the NZD/USD and U.S. stocks, and I've got a feeling some are skeptical. Here's a graph of these two apparently unrelated financial instruments. You can see the correlation yourself. In fact, it gave a pretty good heads-up about the 2/27 plunge two weeks in advance.


Regular readers of this blog know that the head and shoulders is a favorite bearish pattern of mine. The way it is supposed to work is well illustrated by MRVL, shown below. The difference between the neckline and the top of the head was about $10, which traditionally is the target price for the fall. MRVL nailed its target to the penny.


My hope is that my AMR short - which has been doing great, thanks for asking - will follow suit as well. There's quite a way to go before the target is reached.


I don't have a position in Capital One Financial (COF) anymore, but I've got to say, this is one monstrously large looking topping pattern.


Merrill Lynch (MER), on which I own puts, seems to be turning the corner. RSI and the slow stochastic are in a downturn, and the retracement seems to have played itself out.

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Merrill Lynch (MER), on which I own puts, seems to be turning the corner. RSI and the slow stochastic are in a downturn, and the retracement seems to have played itself out.


Much can said of US Steel (X) as well.


I think today might be the last "the Dow has to go up because it just keeps going up" day for a bit. My sense is that we'll see a lower Dow on Monday. See you then.

at 4/27/2007 27 insightful comments
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Labels: amr, cof, mer, mrvl, x

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Thursday, April 26, 2007Twenty-Five-Peat
Yawn. The bull's getting boring. By my count, 25 out of the past 31 days have been up on the Dow. So much for climbing a wall of worry. It's skipping higher.

I mentioned yesterday that the US Dollar had to soften up to have any chance of market softness. Although it didn't help today, I notice the NZD/USD did weaken considerably and is sporting a pretty hefty bearish engulfing pattern.


One nice effect this did have is to soften up gold quite a bit. My $XAU puts continue to do well.


Apple traded over $100 for a while today, its highest price in history. I remembered Dell's famous quote in the late 90s about how Apple should just give up, so I decided to look up when he said that. Well, fancy that - - right near the bottom. Buyers of Dell on that day would have about 140% in profits by now. Buyers of Apple, on the other hand, have enjoyed more like a 1,600% gain.


Akamai, a short suggestion here, continues to fall on very significant volume.

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Thursday, April 26, 2007Twenty-Five-Peat



One nice effect this did have is to soften up gold quite a bit. My $XAU puts continue to do well.






[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:56 编辑 ]

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Akamai, a short suggestion here, continues to fall on very significant volume.


I sold American Airlines (AMR) short yesterday near its high for the day, and it is sinking nicely away from its neckline. By traditional measurements, there could be another $9 in losses on this stock.


I've never charted Honeywell (HON) here before, but it's a Dow 30 stock and worth watching. No clear bearish pattern here, but clearly an opportunity for it to take a breather.


I've mentioned in the recent past how McKesson (MCK) is dancing around its Fibonacci fan lines. At long last, it started to fall away from one of those lines today. It took a while.

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I've mentioned in the recent past how McKesson (MCK) is dancing around its Fibonacci fan lines. At long last, it started to fall away from one of those lines today. It took a while.


Morgan Stanley (MS) represents a relatively low-risk short here, since it has apparently retraced about all of the descent that it is planning to retrace.


PSB, which I've been short a while, continues to slowly form a potential head and shoulders pattern. So far, so good.


Questar (STR), mentioned several times recently as a long candidate, moved handsomely higher today.


In honor of Steven Hawking's planned adventure in weightlessness, I thought I'd share this funny (but slightly NSFW) clip.


at 4/26/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, aapl, akam, amr, hon, mck, msft, psb, str


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