一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 19, 2007Just. Plain. Weird.
Well, we bears started off with every advantage this morning. The Nikkei had fallen hundreds of points. China had gotten clobbered. The currency situation looked eerily similar to what caused the February 27th mini-crash. The GLOBEX was way down. And the market opened down, soon more than 60 points off the Dow.

And then what happened? Of course. The bulls came to the rescue. Incredibly, inexplicably, disgustingly, the market shook off the barrel-full of bad news and actually went into the green for the 700th day in a row. Un-{Nixonian expletive deleted} believable.


The most important "index" to me is my own portfolio, and I was glad to see that it actually moved reasonably higher today. Someone was asking in the comments section why I'm so hung up on the Dow. Two reasons. First, it's the most widely recognized and used index by the public. And second, I deliberately am seeking out the strongest index (currently, at least). If I'm bearish, I want to be in tune with the least bearish of the major indexes to keep an eye on its strength.


Perennial favorite $RUT (the Russell 2000) fell down today. It's interesting to see the candlesticks here. Three down days in a row, each one a little more strongly down than the prior one.


The S&P 500 was also down just a touch today. I see in after-hours trading that Google (GOOG) blew away its estimates (I have no position in GOOG) and it is up something like $13 per share. Obviously it will be interesting to see what the stock does in "real life" tomorrow. But the company's ability to print money is clearly undaunted.


My puts in $XAU are going great. The lower lows/lower highs is as plain on the nose on your face.


The NZD/USD has got to fall in order for us to see real weakness. It looks ready to turn, based on what I've marked here.


I haven't done this in a while, but below are my current positions. All of them are bearish. The bold ones are puts, and the regular ones are shorts.


Lastly, I haven't provided a video in a while. One of my favorite groups ever, Devo, did this video back in the early 80s (my own personal musical nirvana). With the crappy time we bears have had over the past two months, I thought it was time to "take a break".......




at 4/19/2007 53 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, nzd/usd

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hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 18, 2007Chug
If my mood is a good contrary indicator for the market, heed it well. I was profoundly dismayed and depressed by the market's action today. At one point, the Dow was up over 60, and I was thinking to myself that there are really better things to be doing with my life than writing a bear-oriented blog. I toyed with the idea of pulling the plug on this thing.

Historically - and I've been trading a long time - my psyche is always darkest before the dawn. And it was really dark today. The Dow at a new lifetime high. Bearish ammunition like Yahoo being down 12% nearly neutered by the bulls. And the childish persistence of comments like "lmfao" in this blog (I say again: I abandoned rotflmao and other such nonsense a little over 25 years ago.....so, IMHO STFU).

The news isn't all bleak. My Russell 2000 puts actually went up in price today. And many indices continue to appear stretching the bounds of sanity. Look how the $MID is mashed up against the highest ranges of its Bollinger bands. Plus the RSI went above - and then below - the 70 mark, which is a sell signal.


The NASDAQ, aided by Yahoo, actually edged down today.


As I mentioned, the Russell went down today, in spite of the market's strength. I closed my S&P puts earlier in the day. I'm sick and tired of the bid/ask rape job in those options. The Russell is simply a better value.


As for the S&P 500, look at this interesting channel. These two lines are perfectly parallel, drawn at a 30% angle. After the late February/early March sell-off, it's incredible how much strength this index has found. But it is still trapped within this very well-defined, multi-year channel. Odds for further strength are poor.


My gold/silver puts also had a good day. The 120-150 range of the $XAU is a good trading opportunity for those who want to play off the recent cyclic nature of this index.


Lastly, the Amex Major Market ($XMI) fell a bit today as well. We have a sell signal on the RSI here too.


What's the latest count now? 21 up days out of the past 24? Something like that. It's something ungodly. I can only imagine how complacent the bulls must be getting now. Although I don't think it's an accident that the $VIX actually went up today, in spite of the widely-publicized record highs.


at 4/18/2007 71 insightful comments
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hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 17, 2007Cocksure


The Dow Jones 30, shown below, had another positive day today, although this evening's markets are rather weak. (Yahoo, in particular, is kept walloped by nearly 9% as of this writing). There is, as always, a potential to mark a double top here, but broader indices (such as the $MID) recently went on to new highs and negated their potential double tops. It would take very little additional strength on the Dow's part to do the same.


A look at the $MID, embellished with Bollinger Bands, indicates we are stretched almost to the breaking point at the high end.


Take note of the Russell 2000 as well, which actually went down today in spite of the market's general strength.


The S&P 500 is also way at the top of the Bollinger bands, and the RSI is just peeking over the 70 level, meaning a weak day tomorrow would give us a sell signal via the RSI.


I bought puts on the $XAU today with a stop at $150.


The $XMI seems profoundly overbought to me.

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The $XMI seems profoundly overbought to me.


My short in MWP is doing pretty well. This is quite a hyberbolic stock (I won't bore you with ONT today, but that in hyperbolic in a good way - - bulls are doing great with it).


Just to give you some perspective, here's U.S. Steel (X) over the past ten years. I'm sure the bulls will quickly explain away the 12-fold rise in price. But try to be rational, even for a moment. Look at the graph. Tell me this isn't overbought.


People never learn. It's always "different this time." There's always a new excuse. Years ago it was the Nifty Fifty. Or the One Decision Stock. Or the New Economy.

Or, now, the Goldilocks economy. And the sheep..........I mean, the bulls........are happy to go along with it every stinking time.

Special Bull Challenge!
For those of you convinced things are Different This Time - - instead of prattling on, tell us what to buy! I'd like any of you bulls to provide ticker symbols, target prices, and stop prices. Since you seem convinced of your rightness, lay it on the table. Tell us poor saps what we should really be doing. We'll see how your picks fare. Please post these in the comments section........

at 4/17/2007 78 insightful comments
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Labels: mwp, x


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Monday, April 16, 2007And So It Goes....
The bears continue to get shot in the head, one by one. The comments section of this blog is a mix of insightful commentary (from both sides) and sophomoric crap from permabulls. Of course, if the market was in a freefall, there would be sophomoric crap from bears like me, so I guess it all evens out.

Many indices and ETFs made lifetime highs today. Not yearly highs. Lifetime highs. Never-before-seen, higher-than-the-bubble highs. Get it? Look at MDY, SPY, $MID, and many others. We're into unchartered bullish waters. The $INDU, while not yet at a lifetime high, is threatening to make the highest level seen in years.


The $OEX pushed above a formidable Fibonacci level today. There's a large opportunity for this to push higher, based on the next Fib level.


The Russell 2000 also pushed to a lifetime high today. It, like the $INDU, is just kissing the underside of the broken trendline.


I  that FMT might be a good bullish play. That turned out to be true. The stock was up over 30% at one point today.

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turned out to be true. The stock was up over 30% at one point today.


Energy continues to be strong, as I've suggested it might many times recently. Here's the OIH.


About a week ago, one of the folks in the comments section asked about ONT. I responded in comments that it looked great, and I repeated that in the next night's post. Although speculative, this stock is doing amazing things, and the volume backs it up.


Energy play Schlumberger (SLB) continues to be strong. I point it out here due to its size and especially strong performance.


I guess one might joke....."How does one make a small fortune being a bear?" Answer: "Start with a large fortune." Things look grimmer than ever for ursine types. Valuations don't matter. Common sense doesn't matter. All the bearish arguments you've heard don't matter. All that matters is that (a) a lot of people with (b) a lot of money (c) don't know what else to do with it. So we go up and up.
at 4/16/2007 44 insightful comments
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Labels: fmt, oih, ont, slb

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hefeiddd

Saturday, April 14, 2007I, For One, Welcome Our New Bull Overlords.....
Thanks for coming back this weekend (or Monday......) to see my post. I had to do some thinking, charting, and scanning to reassess the market.

Oh, before I begin, a shameless plug: for those who have been holding off buying Chart Your Way to Profits, check You'll be able to get some third-party opinions from those who have actually read it. The one negative review was from someone who didn't realize the book was largely about ProphetCharts and JavaCharts. So, consider yourself warned.

I really tried to look at the whole market with a very open mind, because the strength of the bulls since July has been frustrating, confusing, and vexxing. I keep coming back to the graph below, which shows the S&P 500 over the long haul. I simply cannot see that we are set up for a bullish surge. I don't want to hear about liquidity, the global economy, or the trillion dollar oil surplus seeking a home. This blog is about charts, and the charts, to me, don't say "buy."


Looking at a short-term S&P chart, we can see that we're getting dangerously close to the high set back in February. It isn't the all-time high (set early in 2000), but it's getting close to that as well. The big question now is, does the market (a) sink from here (b) push up to a double top and then sink (c) blow past the February high and make an assault on the all-time high from the bubble.


To me, an important indicator to watch is the NZD/USD market. The New Zealand kiwi has been extraordinarily strong. The weakness in late February was a good early indicator of the tumble the markets took. But, since then, this currency has basically been going straight up.


Another item I watch is China - one shorthand way to do it is via GCH (Greater China Fund). One interesting tidbit is that it seems to have retraced up to a retracement level. We'll see if it backs away or not.

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Another item I watch is China - one shorthand way to do it is via GCH (Greater China Fund). One interesting tidbit is that it seems to have retraced up to a retracement level. We'll see if it backs away or not.


I wanted to show a few examples of why it's careful not to fall in love with a particular point of view. In particular, why it's important not to anticipate pattern completion.

Technical analysis is a helpful tool - especially in markets that are friendly toward one's general investment disposition. For instance, if the market were, by and large, weak, the short ideas I've suggested over the past months would have been quite successful. But the fact is that we're swimming against the tide, and that makes it very, very hard.

And I'm not saying the market would have to be in some horrendous free fall. But if things were easing down, week to week, and month to month, that's where using T.A. to smoke out good short opportunities is invaluable.

But when you're swimming against the tide, you have to be extra vigilant. Take BP, for instance, shown below. I mentioned this as a potential short. It had a beautiful topping pattern. It broke below its neckline. And it started falling.

But what happened next? It got strength. It went above the same neckline. Thus, the pattern was rendered moot. And then it soared! Being able to escape the "jaws of death" like this is a real sign of strength that must be feared by bears.


Here's a similar situation with FTO. A gorgeous head and shoulders in the making. But the pattern did not complete! You can see what happened next. That's why scoring a little more profit by seeing a completed pattern in your mind's eye is seldom worth it.


For our next example, here's HES. I've often pointed out how, once a trendline is broken, the price obediently stays beneath it, and maybe "kiss the underside" of the trendline. That's all well and good, but it doesn't mean a collapse is at hand. A price can stay beneath its trendline for a very long time and still make tons of money for the bulls.

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For our next example, here's HES. I've often pointed out how, once a trendline is broken, the price obediently stays beneath it, and maybe "kiss the underside" of the trendline. That's all well and good, but it doesn't mean a collapse is at hand. A price can stay beneath its trendline for a very long time and still make tons of money for the bulls.


My general feeling toward the index is simply that I don't know what the hell is going on. A terrible confession, eh? But these markets are bewildering these days. You're going to hear the same story from me - - we're pushing toward either a double top or to new highs. We're awfully close to one or the other.


$NDX is a skosh weaker. It could back off from the horizontal line I've drawn. Or not.


I was blown out of my precious $RUT puts. But that's what stops are for, right? I don't like the look of this index nearly as much as I used to.

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I was blown out of my precious $RUT puts. But that's what stops are for, right? I don't like the look of this index nearly as much as I used to.


Some indices - such as the $XMI, shown below - have wasted no time in going to new lifetime highs. Disturbing. The bulls are in their ninth month of totally owning this market.


Most of the strength these days is in really "old school" stuff. I'm talking about Steel.....Uranium......Copper........and, for God's sake, Railroads! This is no "new economy" play here. It's 19th/20th century stuff. Here's uranium company CCJ, for instance:


Goldman Sachs gave me at least a little relief. Even on a strong up day, it was weak.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:15 编辑 ]

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