一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007Grace Under Pressure
The market by and large meandered today, moving slightly higher after yesterday's big push upward. The Russell 2000, on which I own the most puts, actually inched down in spite of the other major indexes pushing a bit higher.

The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a pretty good job representing where I think the market is it, which is at the upper reaches of a retracement. For it to move beyond its February highs would require surprising strength. It could happen, and if it does, it's time to return to the bear cave, perhaps for a long while.


The Diamonds (DIA) also do a pretty fair job - this time with some trendlines I've drawn - illustrating the retracement.


Capital One Financial (COF), which I've been mentioning forever, is finally starting to move meaningfully lower. It's about time.


Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.

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Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.


Pico Holdings (PICO) is something I mentioned as a long a while back. It seems to have run out of gas. I'd actually look to this as a short (with a tight stop) at this point.


Lastly, Ryan Air (RYAAY) is behaving in accordance with its broken trendline - - that is, moving away and down from it. This stock had been hyperbolic until that trendline was snapped.


Tomorrow will end this shortened trading week. Someone in the comments section has observed that most recent shortened weeks have been strongly bullish. We'll see if that's true or if people get jumpy enough about three days of a closed market to sell instead.
at 4/04/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: cof, dia, mwp, pico, ryaay

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007Bearish Hopes Battered
I'm not even waiting for the end of the trading day to do this post.

Now that the indexes have sliced through the highs of March 26, bearish hopes for a softer market are - for the umpteenth time - destroyed. At this point, only surprisingly weak Q1 earnings........or a totally unexpected world event....is going to slow this market down.

From a charting perspective, the market is in full-blown bull mode, with the only resistance being that major support line that was decisively broken in late February. The market certainly still has more room on the upside.


Since I'm weary of showing potentially bearish charts that get swept up in this bull mania, I'm going to switch hats and offer a few bullish ideas. Dril Quip (DRQ):


Greif.....just look at that volume surge.... (GEF):


Health Net (HNT):

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Health Net (HNT):


Holix (HOLX):


Jacobs (JEC):


Schlumberger (SLB):

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Schlumberger (SLB):


Questar (STR):


I'm sure the naysayers that hang out in the comments section are delighted at the misery of the bears (and, more specifically, me!) Well, that's the market for ya. 99 times out of 100, it belongs to the bulls. Days like February 27 come along only once in a blue moon.

I hope some of you find some good fodder in the charts above.

at 4/03/2007 64 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, drq, gef, hnt, holx, jec, slb, str

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Monday, April 02, 2007Charts and Stops
Today was a bore. I really have nothing to add to my general market analysis.

For lack of anything new to say about the market in general, a little something different - - I am going to show you the charts of the positions currently in my portfolio as well as the stop price I have established.

Two things to keep in mind: first, you can click on any chart to see its larger version (or, if you prefer, right-click on it to put the larger graphic into a new browser tab). Second, the stop prices reflect the price above which the position would be closed. For example, the stop price on my Russell 2000 position is 811.05, which means if a price of 811.06 is reached, the position will be closed out immediately at the market price.

I hope you find these charts thought-provoking......keep in mind, every one of these positions is either a long put or a short equity position. I will let the charts speak for themselves. I offer the stop prices as an indication of my own analysis. The decisions on any of these, of course, are utterly yours to make.

Russell 2000 ($RUT). Stop price: 811.05


Apple Computer (AAPL) Stop price:96.83


American Home Mortgage (AHM) Stop price: 27.87


akam 53.36

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akam 53.36


Acuity Brands (AYI) Stop price: 55.70


AutoZone (AZO) Stop price: 129.49


Boeing (BA) Stop price: 91.87

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Boeing (BA) Stop price: 91.87


Bank of America (BAC) Stop price: 52.15


Black and Decker (BDK) Stop price: 85.29


Franklin Resources (BEN) Stop price: 123.41

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Franklin Resources (BEN) Stop price: 123.41


Continental Airlines (CAL) Stop price: 40.55


Seacor Holdings(CKH) Stop price: 103.31


Carpenter Technology (CRS) Stop price: 125.65

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Carpenter Technology (CRS) Stop price: 125.65


Chevron (CVX) Stop price: 75.66


Diamond Trust (DIA) Stop price: 125.01


Diamond Offshore (DO) Stop price: 83.78

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